Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Rublev can push Alcaraz in Doha semis

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Thu 19 Feb 2026 23:33

Andrew Hendrie 19 Feb 2026

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Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev predictions for Friday's ATP Doha semi-final
Alcaraz has won 39 of his last 40 matches vs players outside the top 10
Alcaraz also 10-0 for 2026 & on 28-match winning streak on outdoor hard
Rublev has pushed Alcaraz in previous meetings & is on eight-match Doha win streak
The match is scheduled to start around 3.30am AEDT on Saturday February 21

Expired

Carlos Alcaraz (Photo by Getty Images)

Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

Carlos Alcaraz is two wins away from a first Qatar Open title as he prepares to face defending champion Andrey Rublev in the semi-finals on Friday night in Doha.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Alcaraz vs Rublev Stats & Trends
Alcaraz vs Rublev Head To Head
Carlos Alcaraz Form Analysis
Andrey Rublev Form Analysis
Alcaraz vs Rublev Live Stream

However, if we learned anything from quarter-final day in Doha, it's that the 'Big 2' aren't immortal after all. Alcaraz managed to recover from a set down to edge out Karen Khachanov, but rival Jannik Sinner wasn't as fortunate, suffering a shock three-set defeat to Jakub Mensik. Rublev - a two-time champion in Doha - will no doubt take great confidence from that result, with the Russian consistently producing his best tennis at this tournament, including a straight sets dispatch of Stefanos Tsitsipas in the last eight.

Rublev has repeatedly pushed Alcaraz at stages throughout their five previous meetings and even landed a win at Madrid 2024. He also snatched a set at Cincinnati and Wimbledon last year. Alcaraz has been well below his scintillating best all week and all six of his previous Doha matches have seen 20+ games. With Rublev playing well at a tournament he enjoys and equipped with solid recent performances against Alcaraz, I think he can cover and push this over.

Alcaraz vs Rublev Stats & Trends

Alcaraz has won 39 of his last 40 matches vs players outside the top 10
Alcaraz has won 17 of his last 18 semi-finals
Alcaraz has seen 20+ games in all six previous Doha matches
Alcaraz has won his last 28 outdoor hardcourt matches
Alcaraz is 10-0 to start 2026
Rublev is on an eight-match winning streak in Doha (19-5 overall)
Rublev is 5-7 in his last 12 semi-finals
Rublev has lost 11 of his last 12 matches vs top 10 players
Rublev has covered a +4.5 line in his last nine matches vs top 10 players in best-of-three matches
Rublev has covered a +4.5 line in his last three best-of-three matches vs Alcaraz

Alcaraz vs Rublev Head To Head

Alcaraz leads 4-1, but Rublev took a set in both meetings in 2025.

Year	Winner	Event	Round	Surface	Score
2025	Carlos Alcaraz	ATP Masters 1000 Cincinnati	Quarterfinal	Outdoor Hard	6–3, 4–6, 7–5
2025	Carlos Alcaraz	Wimbledon	Round of 16	Outdoor Grass	6–7(5), 6–3, 6–4, 6–4
2024	Carlos Alcaraz	Nitto ATP Finals	Round Robin	Indoor Hard	6–3, 7–6(8)
2024	Andrey Rublev	ATP Masters 1000 Madrid	Quarterfinal	Outdoor Clay	4–6, 6–3, 6–2
2023	Carlos Alcaraz	Nitto ATP Finals	Round Robin	Indoor Hard	7–5, 6–2

Carlos Alcaraz Form Analysis

2026 Record: 10-0
ATP Doha Record: 5-1
Current Ranking: No. 1
Career-High Ranking: No. 1

Alcaraz remains flawless for 2026, but it hasn't been entirely smooth sailing in Doha.

After securing a historic Career Grand Slam by winning his maiden Australian Open and seventh major title last month in Melbourne, Alcaraz has improved his record to the year for 10-0.

However, it hasn't been pretty. The Spaniard needed to save set points against Arthur Rinderknech in his opener and was forced to recover from 2-5 down in the second against Valentin Royer in the second round.

Alcaraz had to dig deep again in the quarter-finals, rallying from a set down to edge out Karen Khachanov 6-7(3) 6-4 6-3, winning five of the last six games.

“It was a really close and tight match,” said Alcaraz. “In the first set I had a few break points and I couldn’t make them. One set point and I couldn’t make it, so it was really tough.

“I think Karen was playing great, but I knew I’d had my chances. I just didn’t take them in the first set, so it was the time to keep going and try to keep fighting. Wait for my chances and try to take them in the second set. I’m just really proud about the way that I [fought].”

Andrey Rublev Form Analysis

2026 Record: 7-2
ATP Doha Record: 19-5
Current Ranking: No. 14
Career-High Ranking: No. 5 (2021)

Rublev is back playing some of his best tennis in Doha after an average start to the year.

The Russian was ousted in the semi-finals of Hong Kong by Lorenzo Musetti before a disappointing defeat to Francisco Cerundolo in the third round of the Australian Open.

However, a return to Doha has sparked a reversal of form, with Rublev winning 19 of his 24 matches at the tournament, claiming two titles.

Rublev began his title defence with a 6-4 6-3 win over Jesper de Jong before taking care of Fabian Marozsan 6-2 6-4. Rublev then made it eight straight wins in Doha with a 6-3 7-6 victory over Stefanos Tsitsipas to set up this semi-final showdown with Alcaraz.