Andrey Rublev vs Timofey Skatov ATP Estoril Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Rublev opens Estoril title bid

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Thu 23 Jul 2026 02:59

Andrew Hendrie 35 minutes ago

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Andrey Rublev vs Timofey Skatov predictions for Thursday's ATP Estoril R2 match
Rublev coming off Bastad title last week & favourite again in Estoril
Lucky loser Skatov is tipped to cover a big +5.5 start for the best bet
The match is scheduled to start around 2.00am AEST on Friday July 24

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Andrey Rublev vs Timofey Skatov ATP Estoril Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

Andrey Rublev is confident after winning his 18th ATP title in Bastad last week, but players can tend to start slowly after such moments, meaning Timofey Skatov is tipped to cover with a big +5.5 start in this second round showdown in Estoril on Thursday.

Andrey Rublev vs Timofey Skatov ATP Estoril Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
Rublev vs Skatov Stats & Trends
Rublev vs Skatov Head To Head
Andrey Rublev Form Analysis
Timofey Skatov Form Analysis
Rublev vs Skatov Live Stream

Rublev snapped a 17-month title drought in Bastad last week, along with a five-match losing streak against top 20 players when he conquered Luciano Darderi in the final. Now, Rublev has his sights set on back-to-back titles and you've got to say he's the favourite heading into the second round - but does he have the consistency and mental fortitude to go all the way again?

Time will tell, but I don't think this will be a straightforward opening contest for the top seed after enjoying a first round bye.

I've always felt Skatov is a better player than his ranking of No. 163 suggests, but speaking of consistency, that's what's held the Kazakh back from ever breaking into the world's top 100.

Skatov is playing with house money in Estoril after falling in qualifying and gaining entry into the main draw as a lucky loser before beating the in-form Jesper de Jong in the first round.

That 'nothing to lose' mentality makes Skatov dangerous here, although a 0-2 record vs top 20 players means he's unlikely to pull off an upset. However, I do think Skatov can cover his +5.5 line, with Rublev not really dominating recently in his tournament openers.

Rublev vs Skatov Stats & Trends

Rublev has failed to cover a -5.5 line in his last seven tournament openers on clay
Rublev has failed to cover a -5.5 line in his last nine matches vs players outside the top 100
Skatov won a set vs De Minaur & pushed Hurkacz to two tiebreaks in his only two matches vs top 20 players
Rublev has won 24 of his last 29 tournament openers on clay
Rublev has won 15 of his last 18 matches vs players outside the top 100
Skatov is playing in just his third tour-level second round match

Rublev vs Skatov Head To Head

This will be the first career meeting between the pair.

Andrey Rublev Form Analysis

2026 ATP Record: 25-13
ATP Estoril Record: 0-0
Current Ranking: No. 14
Career-High Ranking: No. 5 (2021)

It's been a relatively disappointing last couple of years for Rublev, but he's finally broken through to win his first ATP title in 17 months, restoring some confidence and building some momentum heading into this encounter.

This represents a fantastic opportunity for Rublev to continue his winning momentum and edge closer towards a return to the top 10 ahead of the North American hardcourt summer.

Rublev had been on a five-match losing streak against top 20 players before beating Darderi for the title in Bastad last week. The Russian also beat Alejandro Tabilo and Sebastian Baez on his way to the silverware.

The 28-year-old has been on a three-match losing run before Bastad and seeded No. 1 here in Estoril as he makes his tournament debut, Rublev will be determined to keep rolling.

Timofey Skatov Form Analysis

2026 ATP Record: 1-2
ATP Estoril Record: 1-0
Current Ranking: No. 163
Career-High Ranking: No. 123 (2023)

Skatov has been grinding away at Challenger level for the last few years, but unfortunately he's not really any closer to breaking into the top 100 or eclipsing his career-high ranking of No. 123, which was achieved three years ago.

The 25-year-old has some talent, but consistency is his biggest issue - he's incapable of stringing together back-to-back quality tournaments from week to week.

With a negative 9-13 record at tour-level throughout his career, Skatov will need to find something extra if he is to take his game to the next stage.

Skatov has another opportunity to test himself against the best in Estoril - he lost to Pedro Martinez in qualifying, but after entering the main draw as a lucky loser, the Kazakh recovered from dropping the opening set to beat Jesper de Jong 1-6 6-4 6-3.