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Parramatta Eels vs Canberra Raiders NRL Tips - Raiders to grind out another win in Darwin

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Thu 10 Apr 2025 17:00

Andrew Hendrie 10 Apr 2025

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Parramatta Eels vs Canberra Raiders expert predictions for Saturday's NRL Round 6 game
Kick off is at 7.35pm AEST at TIO Stadium
Ten of Canberra's last 12 wins have been by a 1-12 margin - another tight game tipped
Eels continue to struggle for points without Mitch Moses - Under 19.5 team points is the play
Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bets

Eels misery to continue - top picks!

Parramatta Eels vs Canberra Raiders, NRL Round 6 2025 - Expert Prediction

The Raiders will pile more misery on the Eels in Darwin, but as is often the case with the Green Machine, it could turn into a big battle.

Parramatta Eels vs Canberra Raiders, NRL Round 6 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head To Head
Parramatta Eels Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Parramatta Eels Team News
Canberra Raiders Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Canberra Raiders Team News
Canberra Raiders Team List

Ricky Stuart's side have started the season in encouraging fashion, winning three of their five games and coming into this clash with their confidence sky-high following a thrilling last-minute victory over the Sharks in the nation's capital last week.

Canberra are a funny side - they love the grind, their forwards are often try magnets and they rely heavily on Jamal Fogarty's kicking game. Very rarely do they blow sides off the park - case in point, 10 of their last 12 wins dating back to last season have been by a 1-12 margin. They simply don't have the consistent ability to dominate teams, but when you excel at closing out tight contests, it doesn't matter.

With this in mind, I'm backing the Green Machine to register another 1-12 victory here, with two of the Eels' last three games seeing a 1-12 margin (and the other miss was 14 points). I also think the Eels will once again struggle to score points - they desperately need Mitch Moses back on deck and have failed to score 19+ points in four of their five games this season.

I was tempted to go a forward for the Raiders' Anytime Tryscorer (Hudson Young & Matty Nicholson are both good shouts), but with the Eels repeatedly conceding at least one try to their opposing right winger, I'm jumping on Savelio Tamale to cross for a four-pointer.

Raiders have won the last two meetings
Eels have lost four of their five games this season
Ten of Raiders' last 12 wins have been by a 1-12 margin
Eels have seen a 1-12 margin in two of their last three games
Eels have scored Under 19.5 points in four of their five games this season
Savelio Tamale has scored a try in two of his last four games
Eels have conceded a try to their opposing right winger in 12 of their last 13 games

Head To Head

Canberra have defeated the Eels in each of the last two seasons, including a crushing 41-8 triumph in Round 5 last year as Matt Timoko scored a double.

Parramatta Eels Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
1-4	3-2	1-4

I don't like calling any side a one-man team, but the Eels simply aren't a top eight team without Mitch Moses. In fact, right now they are a wooden spoon side, with Parramatta currently anchored to the bottom of the ladder, despite registering their first win of the season last week.

It was a gutsy win for the Eels as Jason Ryles finally secured his first NRL win as head coach, with his side coming from 12 points down to emerge 23-22 winners in Golden Point.

Zac Lomax was the hero for Parramatta, kicking the winning field goal with a fractured foot, while Isaiah Iongi was also electric at fullback, making 222 metres from 23 runs. Dylan Brown also had his best game of the seaso, finally taking the line on with 19 runs for 164 metres.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
3-2	1-4	1-1	0-3

Parramatta Eels Team News

Big blow for the Eels, with Lomax set to miss the next six weeks with his foot injury. Bailey Simonsson and Joash Papalii are a chance to come onto the wing, with Sean Russell moving to centre. Ryley Smith will start at hooker.

1. Isaiah Iongi

2. Josh Addo-Carr

3. Viliami Penisini

4. Sean Russell

5. TBC

6. Dylan Brown

7. Dean Hawkins

8. Joe Ofahengaue

9. Ryley Smith

10. Junior Paulo

11. Shaun Lane

12. Kitione Kautoga

13. J’maine Hopgood

Interchange

14. Dylan Walker

15. Luca Moretti

16. Charlie Guymer

17. Sam Tuivaiti

Reserves

18. Joash Papali’i

19. Dan Keir 20.

Bailey Simonsson

21. Ronald Volkman

22. Ryan Matterson

Canberra Raiders Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
3-2	3-2	3-2

You don't know quite what you're going to get from the Raiders each week, but they have a positive 3-2 record on the season and remain capable of challenging most teams in the competition on their day.

It was an explosive start to the season for Canberra, dismantling the Warriors in Vegas before upsetting Brisbane at home.

Ricky Stuart's side conceded 70 combined points in back-to-back defeats against the Sea Eagles and Cowboys on the road, but returned to the winners circle with a pulsating 24-20 victory over Cronulla last week.

The Raiders put on an outstanding final play of the game, with an Xavier Savage kick setting up Seb Kris to score the match-winning try after initial brilliant lead-up play from Hudson Young.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
3-2	3-2	2-1	1-1

Canberra Raiders Team News

No changes to the Raiders side that toppled Cronulla last week.

Canberra Raiders Team List

1. Kaeo Weekes

2. Savelio Tamale

3. Matthew Timoko

4. Sebastian Kris

5. Xavier Savage

6. Ethan Strange

7. Jamal Fogarty

8. Josh Papali’i

9. Tom Starling

10. Joseph Tapine

11. Hudson Young

12. Matt Nicholson

13. Corey Horsburgh

Interchange

14. Owen Pattie

15. Simi Sasagi

16. Morgan Smithies

17. Ata Mariota

Reserves

18. Trey Mooney

19. Jed Stuart

20. Adam Cook

21. Pasami Saulo

22. Danny Levi

Verdict

Parramatta Eels v Canberra Raiders

I'm backing the Raiders to prevail by a 1-12 margin, restricting the Eels to Under 19.5 team points in the process.

Opposition right wingers have enjoyed huge success against Parra, so tipping Savelio Tamale in for a meat pie.

Raiders 1-12

Margin

$3.10 - 2 Units

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Eels Under 19.5

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Savelio Tamale

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