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Melbourne Storm vs New Zealand Warriors NRL Tips - Storm and Warriors put pile on points

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Wed 09 Apr 2025 13:14

Jeremy Darke 09 Apr 2025

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Melbourne Storm vs New Zealand Warriors expert predictions for Sunday’s Round 6 NRL game
Kick off is at 2:00 PM (AEST) at AAMI Park
Xavier Coates maintains high scoring at AAMI Park, poised for more try exploits.
Melbourne Storm have dominated with 16 consecutive wins over the Warriors.

Jez tells you why this game hits the Over.

Melbourne Storm vs New Zealand Warriors, Round 6 2025 - Expert Prediction

Games between the Storm and the Warriors always entertain, often producing plenty of points one way or another and this Sunday's match will be no different.

Melbourne Storm vs New Zealand Warriors, Round 6 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Melbourne Storm Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Melbourne Storm Team News
Melbourne Storm Team List
New Zealand Warriors Form Analysis & Betting Trends
New Zealand Warriors Team News
New Zealand Warriors Team List
Melbourne Storm vs New Zealand Warriors NRL 2025 Round 6 FAQ’s

I have battled with every statistic possible to decide on who would cover the 16.5-point margin and have decided to stay away from it if I couldn’t get a clear-cut knockout with my two split personalities.

All trends point towards points for both teams, so I like a safety bet here of both teams to score 14.5 points or more.

The Warriors put themselves into a position to score and play the numbers game to convert tackles inside 20m into tries like an ordinary looking fella down at the pub picking up birds. The Storm are the opposite, they are Prince Charming that has just hit on the pokies and are full of self confidence, picking up a 4-pointer at will and barely have to step inside the redzone, especially when Jahrome Hughes is in the side.

Both tactics will get you a meat pie and have gotten these sides 3 victories each.

Xavier Coates has a phenomenal record at AAMI Park at over 1 try per game and has scored 10 in his last 7 against the Warriors, so putting on a couple more units at the low price will pay off.

Melbourne Storm have won the last 16 matches against the New Zealand Warriors
Melbourne Storm are averaging 35.5 PPG in 2025.
The Warriors are conceding an average of 27 points when playing outside of New Zealand.
8 of the last 9 games between Melbourne and the Warriors have gone over the game total.
Xavier Coates has 32 tries in 29 games at AAMI Park.

Head to Head

The Storm have won the last 16 games against the Warriors.

The last 2 matches at AAMI Park have been decided by 8 points or less.

The last 9 matches have had an average score of 56 points between the Storm and the Warriors.

Melbourne Storm Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
3-1	2-2	3-1

Melbourne have been clinical in attack in 2025, especially with Jahrome Hughes in the lineup scoring an average of 44 points per game when the Dally M winner is in the side after they put on another masterclass in their 48-24 victory over Manly last week at Brookvale.

Despite Melbourne averaging just 24 tackles inside their opponents 20m (14th in NRL), they are clearly the best attacking team in the comp, still averaging 35.5 per game after a clumsy performance against St George where they scored just 8 points in Hughes absence. The Storm are potent from anywhere and are not afraid to spread the ball early to create space and get early ball to their backs.

Defensively they could improve a little, ranked 7th in the NRL, conceding an average of 20 points per game, however, a lot of those points have come when they game was already sealed.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
2-2	3-1	1-1	2-0

Melbourne Storm Team News

The Storm have some niggles but all of their stars have been cleared to play with Ryan Papenhuyzen (cork), Xavier Coates (hamstring), Jahrome Hughes (hand) all getting the nod

Bronson Garlick remains on the interchange bench with Nelson Asofa-Solomona still out..

Melbourne Storm Team List

1. Ryan Papenhuyzen

2. Grant Anderson

3. Jack Howarth

4. Moses Leo

5. Xavier Coates

6. Cameron Munster

7. Jahrome Hughes

8. Stefano Utoikamanu

9. Harry Grant

10. Josh King

11. Shawn Blore

12. Eli Katoa

13. Trent Loiero

Interchange

14. Tyran Wishart

15. Alec MacDonald

16. Tui Kamikamica

17. Bronson Garlick

Reserves

18. Joe Chan

19. Lazarus Vaalepu

20. Kane Bradley

21. Sua Fa'alogo

22. Keagan Russell-Smith

New Zealand Warriors Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
3-1	3-1	2-2

After a poor showing in Vegas against the Raiders, the Warriors have gone unbeaten in the southern hemisphere with victories over Manly and Sydney in New Zealand and taking the the Tigers at Campbelltown 26-24 before their bye in Round 5.

The Warriors are doing the basics right and leading the comp in a few of the important key stats that we base our analysis on. They lead the NRL run metres (1554), Tackles inside opponent 20m (40.8) and territory (59.8&), while on the defensive side of the ball they lead the league in opposition territory and opposition tackles inside their 20m.

The concern for the Warriors though is that with all of the key stats on their side, in raw points and against they do not balance, ranked 10th, scoring an average of 21 points per game The Warriors are the best team defensively at home, however are averaging 27 points against away from home which is 12th in the NRL.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
3-1	2-2	2-0	1-1

New Zealand Warriors Team News

Rocco Berry has recovered from his hamstring injury during the bye week and is good to go. Edward Kosi drops out and Adam Pompey moves to the wing.

New Zealand Warriors Team List

1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad

2. Taine Tuaupiki

3. Rocco Berry

4. Ali Leiataua

5. Adam Pompey

6. Chanel Harris-Tavita

7. Luke Metcalf

8. James Fisher-Harris

9. Wayde Egan

10. Mitch Barnett

11. Kurt Capewell

12. Marata Niukore

13. Erin Clark

Interchange

14. Bunty Afoa

15. Jackson Ford

16. Demitric Vaimauga

17. Leka Halasima

Reserves

18. Tanah Boyd

20. Jacob Laban

21. Samuel Healey

22. Te Maire Martin

23. Edward Kosi

Melbourne Storm vs New Zealand Warriors NRL 2025 Round 6 FAQ’s

How to watch Melbourne Storm vs New Zealand Warriors NRL 2025 Round 6?

You can watch the Melbourne Storm vs New Zealand Warriors NRL 2025 Round 6 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Melbourne Storm vs New Zealand Warriors NRL 2025 Round 6?

To buy tickets to the Melbourne Storm vs New Zealand Warriors NRL 2025 Round 6 game check the NRL website or the official Melbourne Storm site.

Verdict

Melbourne Storm v New Zealand Warriors

Points will be scored with both teams going over 14.5 points and the game total over 51.5. Xavier Coates will keep his try a game at AAMI Park record intact with a 4-pointer.

14 Points

Both Teams to Score x Points

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