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North Queensland Cowboys vs Manly Sea Eagles NRL Tips - Manly's struggles to continue in Townsville

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Thu 15 May 2025 11:59

Andrew Hendrie 15 May 2025

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North Queensland Cowboys vs Manly Sea Eagles expert predictions for Saturday's NRL Round 11 game
Kick off is at 5.30pm AEST at Queensland Country Bank Stadium
Cowboys to avenge R1 loss to Manly & cover a small -2.5 line in victory
Cowboys have scored 28+ points in six of their last seven games in Townsville
Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bets

North Queensland Cowboys vs Manly Sea Eagles NRL Tips

North Queensland Cowboys vs Manly Sea Eagles, NRL Round 11 - Expert Prediction

The Cowboys will pile more misery (and points) on the embattled Sea Eagles as the two teams square off in Townsville in the second game on Super Saturday.

North Queensland Cowboys vs Manly Sea Eagles, NRL Round 11 - Expert Prediction
Head To Head
North Queensland Cowboys Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
North Queensland Cowboys Team News
Manly Sea Eagles Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Manly Sea Eagles Team News
Manly Sea Eagles Team List

Manly are in all sorts right now. There's no two ways around it - Daly Cherry-Evans has derailed their start to the season by announcing he would be leaving the club at the end of the year, with the Sea Eagles losing four of their last five games. Senior players are reportedly filthy with DCE (not for the first time in his Manly career) and it's fairly obvious to tell on the field. Normally unflappable on the field, Cherry-Evans' individual performances have been poor - especially last week against the Sharks - and it's tough to see how Manly will turn things around with a fractured playing group.

With this in mind, it's a fantastic opportunity for the Cowboys to continue their great form and further cement their top eight status. North Queensland have lost just one game since Round 3 and will be full of confidence following their comeback against the Panthers last week, recovering from 18-30 down to score two tries in the last nine minutes, forcing golden point and ultimately earning a draw with the resurgent four-time defending premiers.

It's time for the Cowboys to register their first win over Manly in Townsville since 2016 (and they can continue their recent trend of scoring 26+ points at home), while Jaxon Purdue should thrive in his preferred position of five-eighth against a vulnerable Sea Eagles' defence - expect the boom youngster to pop up with some support play and cross for what would be an eighth try of the season.

Cowboys have lost just one game since Round 3, winning four & drawing one of their last six games
Sea Eagles have lost four of their last five games
Cowboys have scored 28+ points in six of their last seven home games
Sea Eagles leaked 30 points vs Sharks at home last week
Jaxon Purdue has scored seven tries in his last eight games

Head To Head

Manly crushed North Queensland 42-12 back in Round 1 at Brookvale, but these two sides have gone in opposite directions since. The Sea Eagles haven't lost to the Cowboys in Townsville since 2016.

North Queensland Cowboys Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
3-2	4-1	3-2

It was a slow start to the season for the Cowboys, but Todd Payten put his foot down, gave some key players a spray and it's been smooth sailing ever since.

North Queensland have tasted defeat just once since Round 3 and that was a close 30-26 Magic Round defeat to the second-placed Warriors, where they were unlucky not to complete a second-half comeback.

The Cowboys weren't to be denied another comeback last week, with Robert Derby and Tom Dearden scoring in the last 10 minutes to force golden point against a Panthers side that had seemingly returned to form.

Despite failing to score a try, Jaxon Purdue was again dangerous, running for 199 metres, making another line break and registering 50 post-contact metres - which is his most for the season to date.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
6-3	5-4	3-2	1-2

North Queensland Cowboys Team News

As mentioned, Purdue slots into five-eighth for the first time in his NRL career, with Tom Dearden moving to halfback and Jake Clifford dropping out.

Zac Laybutt comes into the centres for his first NRL match since tearing his ACL in Round 5 last year.

1. Scott Drinkwater

2. Robert Derby

3. Zac Laybutt

4. Viliami Vailea

5. Murray Taulagi

6. Jaxon Purdue

7. Tom Dearden

8. Jordan McLean

9. Reece Robson

10. Coen Hess

11. John Bateman

12. Jeremiah Nanai

13. Sam McIntyre

Interchange

14. Harrison Edwards

15. Thomas Mikaele

16. Griffin Neame

17. Kai O’Donnell

Reserves

18. Jake Clifford

19. Thomas Duffy

20. Semi Valemei

21. Karl Lawton

22. Kaiden Lahrs

Manly Sea Eagles Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
1-4	1-4	2-3

Manly are heading in the opposite direction to that of the Cowboys and come into this encounter having lost four of their last five games.

It's clear as day that Cherry-Evans' announcement has fractured the playing group and it's also affecting the halfback's individual performances. The veteran is in a battle here against opposite number Tom Dearden for a Queensland Origin spot in the halves alongside Cameron Munster.

The Sea Eagles were flat and lacklustre in a 30-14 defeat to the Sharks last week - and if they're losing by 13+ margins and leaking 30 points at Brookvale, it doesn't bode well for their upcoming performances on the road, where they struggle at the best of times.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
3-6	5-4	0-2	4-3

Manly Sea Eagles Team News

Caleb Navale joins the interchange in place of Clayton Faulalo while prop Matthew Lodge is listed amongst the reserves as he looks to return from injury. Jake Trbojevic moves to lock as he looks to stake his claim for a NSW jersey.

Manly Sea Eagles Team List

1. Tom Trbojevic

2. Jason Saab

3. Tolutau Koula

4. Reuben Garrick

5. Lehi Hopoate

6. Luke Brooks

7. Daly Cherry-Evans

8. Ethan Bullemor

9. Jazz Tevaga

10. Siosiua Taukeiaho

11. Haumole Olakau’atu

12. Ben Trbojevic

13. Jake Trbojevic

Interchange

14. Jake Simpkin

15. Corey Waddell

16. Caleb Navale

17. Nathan Brown

Reserves

18. Michael Chee Kam

19. Clayton Faulalo

20. Jakob Arthur

21. Joey Walsh

22. Matthew Lodge

Verdict

North Queensland Cowboys v Manly Sea Eagles

The Cowboys will condemn Manly to a fifth defeat from six matches, continuing their recent trend of scoring Over 25.5 points in Townsville (30+ in their last three this season).

Jaxon Purdue has been in electric try-scoring form and can pop up with another four-pointer as he returns to his more natural position of five-eighth.

Cowboys -2.5

Line

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