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Dolphins vs New Zealand Warriors NRL Tips - Phins to improve to 3-0 vs Warriors at Suncorp

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Thu 15 May 2025 12:00

Andrew Hendrie 15 May 2025

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Dolphins vs New Zealand Warriors expert predictions for Saturday's NRL Round 11 game
Kick off is at 3.00pm AEST at Suncorp Stadium
Dolphins to make it three wins from three vs Warriors at Suncorp
The Hammer has scored seven tries from his last five games at Suncorp
Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bets

Dolphins vs New Zealand Warriors NRL Tips

Dolphins vs New Zealand Warriors, NRL Round 11 - Expert Prediction

The Dolphins can snap the four-game winning streak of the Warriors to launch Super Saturday action at Suncorp Stadium.

Dolphins vs New Zealand Warriors, NRL Round 11 - Expert Prediction
Head To Head
Dolphins Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Dolphins Team News
Dolphins Team List
New Zealand Warriors Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
New Zealand Warriors Team News
New Zealand Warriors Team List

I'm keen to fade the Warriors here. Obviously the Kiwi club deserve credit for their blistering start to the season and for the way they've bounced back from their heavy defeat to Canberra in Vegas - but I think their ladder position is misleading.

Despite flying high in second spot on the table, the Warriors have a points differential of just +1. For context, this is the fourth-lowest points differential for a team coming second on the ladder after 10 rounds since the NRL era began in 1998. It illustrates that while the Warriors have been playing well, they have been digging out tight wins and that sort of trend, luck (whatever you want to call it) usually evens out over time.

The Dolphins have won four of their last six games and on a dry Suncorp track on a Saturday afternoon, the likes of Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Herbie Farnworth and Isaiya Katoa can do some damage. The Warriors have played five road games so far in 2025 - they've been thumped by the Raiders and the Storm, while their three wins were by two points, four points and one point over the Tigers, Cowboys and Dragons respectively.

With this in mind, I'm putting together a mini SGM with the Dolphins to cover a +8.5 line and Under 56.5 total points, while I'll also have something on the Dolphins to prevail outright and the Hammer to continue his red-hot try-scoring form at Suncorp.

Dolphins have won four of their last six games
Dolphins are 2-0 vs Warriors at Suncorp Stadium
Warriors have failed to cover a -8.5 line in all five of their road games in 2025
Warriors only have a +1 points differential (fourth-lowest in NRL history for a second-placed team after 10 rounds)
Under 56.5 points has landed in all nine of the Warriors' games this season
Under 56.5 points has landed in seven of the Dolphins' 10 games this season
Warriors have won just two of their last eight games at Suncorp Stadium
Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow has scored seven tries in his last five games at Suncorp & has six tries in his last five appearances overall

Head To Head

These teams have split their four previous meetings at two wins apiece. Both encounters in 2024 were thrillers, with the Warriors prevailing 24-20 in Round 12 before the Dolphins emerged 34-32 golden point winners in Round 23.

Dolphins Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
3-2	3-2	3-2

It was a slow start to the season for the Dolphins as they opened with a four-match losing streak and looking like contenders for the wooden spoon following the departure of head coach Wayne Bennett.

However, it's been Phins Up more often than not since. Indeed, Kristian Woolf's side come into this clash having won four of their last six games - including taking the scalps of both Penrith and Melbourne, along with last week's gritty 20-16 triumph over the Eels at CommBank.

Herbie Farnworth continued his great form, scoring a try for the fourth consecutive game and making several big defensive plays to hold off the fast-finishing Eels, with the win propelling the Dolphins to within two points of the top eight.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
6-4	3-7	1-5	3-1

Dolphins Team News

No major changes to the team that beat Parramatta last week, with Ray Stone (lock) and Tom Gilbert (second-row) switching roles in the forward pack.

Dolphins Team List

1. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow

2. Jamayne Isaako

3. Jake Averillo

4. Herbie Farnworth

5. Jack Bostock

6. Kodi Nikorima

7. Isaiya Katoa

8. Francis Molo

9. Kurt Donoghoe

10. Felise Kaufusi

11. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki

12. Tom Gilbert

13. Ray Stone

Interchange

14. Harrison Graham

15. Mark Nicholls

16. Josh Kerr

17. Connelly Lemuelu

Reserves

18. Sean O’Sullivan

19. Oryn Keeley

20. Max Feagai

21. Kenny Bromwich

22. Junior Tupou

New Zealand Warriors Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
4-1	3-2	2-3

It's been a remarkable season for the Warriors - they've won seven of their last eight games heading into this contest, losing only to the Storm at AAMI Park to occupy second spot on the ladder.

Conor Metcalf is one of the form halves in the competition and he was again instrumental to the Warriors' success last week against the Dragons, scoring 11 of his side's 15 points - including the match-winning field goal in a 15-14 triumph.

Charnze Nicoll-Kloksted had a big impact at fullback with 26 runs for 212 metres, while Mitch Barnett did nothing to hurt his Origin chances, making 47 tackles and running for 186 metres from 20 hit-ups.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
6-3	4-5	5-0	2-2

New Zealand Warriors Team News

Huge boost for the Warriors, with James Fisher-Harris set to return from a pectoral injury, while Roger Tuivasa-Sheck could be a late inclusion after being named in the reserves.

Jackson Ford misses this game due to concussion, while Bunty Afoa has been dropped. Sam Healy has been named for his second NRL game after impressing on debut in Magic Round.

New Zealand Warriors Team List

1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad

2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak

3. Adam Pompey

4. Kurt Capewell

5. Taine Tuaupiki

6. Chanel Harris-Tavita

7. Luke Metcalf

8. James Fisher-Harris

9. Wayde Egan

10. Mitchell Barnett

11. Leka Halasima

12. Marata Niukore

13. Erin Clark

Interchange

14. Te Maire Martin

15. Jacob Laban

16. Demitric Vaimauga

17. Samuel Healey

Reserves

18. Eddie Ieremia

20. Tanner Stowers-Smith

21. Tanah Boyd

22. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck

23. Moala Graham-Taufa

Verdict

Dolphins v New Zealand Warriors

Backing the Dolphins to make it three straight wins over the Warriors at Suncorp, with the Hammer crossing at a venue he's been prolific at in recent times.

Dolphins +8.5/U 56.5

Alternative Line/Alternative Total Points

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