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Brisbane Broncos vs St George Illawarra Dragons NRL Round 11 Tips - Bronx to continue Dragons misery at Suncorp

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Fri 16 May 2025 07:10

Ryan Tucker 16 May 2025

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Brisbane Broncos vs St George Illawarra Dragons expert predictions for Sunday’s Round 11 NRL game
Kick off is at 2:00 PM (AEST) at Suncorp Stadium
Broncos aim to break recent home losing streak against Dragons.
Ezra Mam's return expected to enhance Broncos' attack.
Dragons suffer from defensive issues, impacting recent performances.

Brisbane Broncos vs St George Illawarra Dragons NRL Round 11 Tips

Brisbane Broncos vs St George Illawarra Dragons, Round 11 2025 - Expert Prediction

Brisbane have lost 2 of their last 3 games at Suncorp but will get one back this weekend with a determined effort against the St George Dragons on Sunday afternoon.

Brisbane Broncos vs St George Illawarra Dragons, Round 11 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Brisbane Broncos Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Brisbane Broncos Team News
Brisbane Broncos Team List
St George Illawarra Dragons Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
St George Illawarra Dragons Team News
St George Illawarra Dragons Team List
Brisbane Broncos vs St George Illawarra Dragons NRL 2025 Round 11 FAQ’s

The Dragons have played at Suncorp 9 times since the start of the 2021 season and have taken victory on just the one occasion. The Broncos haven’t set the world alight themselves at home but are at least over 50% at their home ground in the same period.

St George looked like they were clicking as a team earlier this season with 3 wins from their first 6 games and 2 of those losses being by just 1 point. They allowed an average of just 19.6 pts to opponents through those first 6 games but the number has ballooned to 31.6 per game over their last 3 signalling problems in the defensive structures.

Brisbane’s attack has been chalk and cheese in the games they have won and the games they have lost. With Ezra Mam back we can expect some of the clunkiness to be reduced in attack with his smooth hands and connections on the edge.

Take the Broncos to win and cover the line in this matchup against the Dragons. I also like them on the first half line under a converted try. Kotoni Staggs is the best value pick in my eyes as tryscorer in this matchup.

Brisbane are 4th in the league in Linebreaks averaging 5.7 per game.
Dragons allow 1477 Run Metres per game, ranked 13th in the NRL.
The Broncos have scored the first try in 3 straight games.
Kotoni Staggs has scored 7 tries in last 5 games against the Dragons.

Head to Head

The Broncos and Dragons have met on 7 occasions since the start of the 2019 season. St George Illawarra have taken 5 wins in the time span including a 30-24 victory in the lone matchup last season.

The Game Total has gone Over in all but 1 of those 7 games while the Win Margin has stayed between 1-12 in 4 of 7 clashes.

The Dragons are 4-3 ATS with 3 of the covers coming as the Underdog.

Brisbane Broncos Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
1-4	1-4	1-4

The Broncos suffered another loss at the weekend, this time to an understrength South Sydney Rabbitohs in a game that will be remembered for years to come, sadly not in a positive light for Brisbane fans.

Coming off a terrible loss to the Panthers, expectations were high that Brisbane would be able to turn things around against a Souths team that had been struggling for consistency. They did almost everything right, winning the majority of the major stat counts but failed to convert their chances into points in a similar fashion to their other recent losses.

They are still 4th in Average Points scored, 4th in Linebreaks and 6th in Tackles inside opposition 20m which gives hope to continued success if they can find consistency in attack close to the line.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
3-7	4-6	2-4	3-1

Brisbane Broncos Team News

Ben Hunt will be out for over a month with a hamstring injury, Ezra Mam returns to the NRL side after serving his suspension and playing 40 mins in QCup last weekend.

Despite a late switch before kickoff last week Xavier Willison and Brendan Piakura have retained their respective spots in the starting side and interchange.

Brisbane Broncos Team List

1. Selwyn Cobbo

2. Deine Mariner

3. Kotoni Staggs

4. Gehamat Shibasaki

5. Jesse Arthars

6. Ezra Mam

7. Adam Reynolds

8. Patrick Carrigan

9. Billy Walters

10. Payne Haas

11. Xavier Willison

12. Jordan Riki

13. Kobe Hetherington

Interchange

14. Cory Paix

15. Corey Jensen

16. Brendan Piakura

17. Fletcher Baker

Reserves

18. Tyson Smoothy

19. Josiah Karapani

20. Martin Taupau

21. Jaiyden Hunt

22. Delouise Hoeter

St George Illawarra Dragons Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
2-3	3-2	4-1

The Dragons have dropped 3 straight games after winning 3 of the 4 prior to that. They now have 3 losses by 1 point this season with the Warriors kicking a field goal in the 70th minute to secure the victory at WIN stadium over the weekend.

St George Illawarra made 6 linebreaks to 2 and had 33 tackles in the Warriors 20m zone during the game coming up with 3 tries in the process. It was their errors though that compounded their inefficiency with the ball, 13 times they turned it over as well as giving away 6 penalties and 2 set restarts.

Lyhkan King-Togia seems to be settling in to the halfback role and is a live-wire with ball in hand. The back 5 are all contributing well with run metres out of their own end and with linebreaks when attacking but the scoring has dried up significantly compared to the start of the season.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
4-5	5-4	2-5	1-1

St George Illawarra Dragons Team News

Toby Couchman will miss this game with a shoulder injury. Jack De Belin will start at prop with Blake Lawrie coming onto the bench.

St George Illawarra Dragons Team List

1. Clint Gutherson

2. Tyrell Sloan

3. Moses Suli

4. Valentine Holmes

5. Corey Allan

6. Kyle Flanagan

7. Lyhkan King-Togia

8. Jack de Belin

9. Damien Cook

10. David Klemmer

11. Dylan Egan

12. Jaydn Su'A

13. Hamish Stewart

Interchange

14. Jacob Liddle

15. Luciano Leilua

16. Loko Pasifiki Tonga

17. Blake Lawrie

Reserves

18. Nathan Lawson

19. Hame Sele

20. Lachlan Ilias

21. Raymond Faitala-Mariner

22. Michael Molo

Brisbane Broncos vs St George Illawarra Dragons NRL 2025 Round 11 FAQ’s

How to watch Brisbane Broncos vs St George Illawarra Dragons NRL 2025 Round 11?

You can watch the Brisbane Broncos vs St George Illawarra Dragons NRL 2025 Round 11 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Brisbane Broncos vs St George Illawarra Dragons NRL 2025 Round 11?

To buy tickets to the Brisbane Broncos vs St George Illawarra Dragons NRL 2025 Round 11 game check the NRL website or the official Brisbane Broncos site.

Verdict

Brisbane Broncos v St George Illawarra Dragons

Broncos -10.5

Line

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Broncos -5.5

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