New Zealand Warriors vs Newcastle Knights NRL Finals Tips - Knights backed for upset
In the NRL 2026 Finals Week 2, the New Zealand Warriors are favorites against the Newcastle Knights, having won six of the last seven meetings. However, the expert tip is for an upset, backing the Knights’ superior attacking firepower and predicting a high-scoring shootout (over 44.5 points). The Warriors' recent defensive struggles and Eden Park record make Newcastle a live chance. Look out for Greg Marzhew as an anytime tryscorer, aiming to equal the Knights' season try record.
- Warriors favored but leaking points; Knights tipped to win upset.
- Over 44.5 points expected in a shootout clash.
- Greg Marzhew backed for an anytime try, chasing team record.
- Kick-off is at 4:05 PM (AEST) / 6:05 PM (NZST) on Sunday, 20th September at Eden Park, Auckland.
New Zealand Warriors vs Newcastle Knights, Finals Week 2 2026 - Expert Prediction
The Warriors have dominated this matchup recently, but with this game having all the ingredients of a shootout, I'm backing the Knights to have the attacking stars that will get them the win and add another cross at Eden Park for the Warriors.
- New Zealand Warriors vs Newcastle Knights, Finals Week 2 2026 - Expert Prediction
- Head to Head
- New Zealand Warriors Form Analysis
- Newcastle Knights Form Analysis
- New Zealand Warriors vs Newcastle Knights Team News & Team Lists
- New Zealand Warriors vs Newcastle Knights NRL 2026 Finals Week 2 FAQs
The Warriors deserve favouritism. They have won six of their last seven against Newcastle and the Knights haven't won in New Zealand since 2019. But Newcastle to win is the upset play.
I had the Knights to cover but the more I shifted to a high-scoring clash the more I moved in Newcastle's favour of winning outright. The Knights have enough strike through Ponga, Bradman Best, Dominic Young and Greg Marzhew to punish a Warriors defence that has started giving up considerably more points.
New Zealand have conceded an average of 28.5 points across their last four games, while Newcastle were averaging 30.4 points scored across their previous five matches entering the finals. That combination makes Over 44.5 points the strongest bet on the slate and if there points that makes the Knights more dangerous and the likelihood of another loss for the Warriors at Eden Park.
The last meeting is another strong indicator. These teams combined for 78 points in Round 26 when the Warriors won 46-32, and five of New Zealand's last seven games have cleared 44.5.
Greg Marzhew Anytime Tryscorer is the player selection. The Newcastle winger has scored five tries across his last four matches and needs one more to equal the Knights' record for most tries in a season.
- The Warriors have lost five of their six games played at Eden Park
- The Warriors have conceded 28.5 points per game across their last four.
- The last Warriors-Knights clash finished 46-32.
- Five of New Zealand's last seven games have cleared 44.5 points.
- Greg Marzhew has scored five tries across his last four matches.
Head to Head
The Warriors have controlled this matchup in recent seasons, winning six of their last seven meetings with Newcastle.
They have won the last four meetings, including both clashes this season. New Zealand won 38-12 in Newcastle in Round 3 before producing a 46-32 victory at home in Round 26.
New Zealand Warriors Form Analysis
The Warriors' 26-16 loss to the Dolphins snapped a six-game winning streak, but there was plenty to like about the first hour.
New Zealand controlled possession and led 16-8 before two pieces of individual brilliance from Herbie Farnworth and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow changed the match. The Warriors had 55 per cent possession but converted too many attacking opportunities into penalty goals rather than tries.
Their season-long attacking numbers remain elite. The Warriors rank first for points, second for linebreaks and first for completion rate, while also ranking second defensively.
The concern is their recent defensive trend. New Zealand have become much easier to score against late in the season.
Newcastle Knights Form Analysis
Newcastle's 20-10 win over South Sydney was arguably their most complete performance in weeks.
The Knights had entered the finals with major questions surrounding their defence after conceding 44 points to Manly and 46 to the Warriors, but they restricted one of the competition's best attacking teams to just 10 points.
Ponga was outstanding and Newcastle's young forwards held their own despite the absence of several regulars. Jermaine McEwen scored twice, while Francis Manuleleua produced another powerful performance on the edge.
Their attack has rarely been the issue. Newcastle averaged 30.4 points across their previous five matches and rank sixth for points and third for linebreaks.
New Zealand Warriors vs Newcastle Knights Team News & Team Lists
The Warriors lose Jackson Ford after he suffered another injury against the Dolphins.
Leka Halasima has been named among the reserves after withdrawing during the warm-up last weekend because of a hamstring issue, while Dallin Watene-Zelezniak is also pushing for a return from his broken collarbone.
Newcastle have named the same core squad that defeated South Sydney, while Dylan Lucas has been included among the reserves as he pushes to return from a fractured ankle.
Click to see New Zealand vs Newcastle Team Lists.
Click to see New Zealand vs Newcastle Team Lists.
New Zealand Warriors vs Newcastle Knights NRL 2026 Finals Week 2 FAQs
- How to livestream New Zealand Warriors vs Newcastle Knights NRL 2026 Finals Week 2?
You can watch Warriors vs Knights live in Australia via Nine, 9Now, Fox League or Kayo Sports. In New Zealand the match will also be broadcast through Sky NZ, while WatchNRL is available for eligible viewers outside Australia and New Zealand.
- How to buy tickets to New Zealand Warriors vs Newcastle Knights NRL 2026 Finals Week 2?
Tickets for the Warriors vs Knights semi-final at Eden Park are available through the NRL's official Finals ticketing channels and Ticketmaster New Zealand.
Verdict
Over 44.5 points is the play with Newcastle to get the upset on another Greg Marzhew Try.
Over 44.5
Game Total
$1.91 - 3 Units
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Newcastle Knights
Money Line
$2.50 - 2 Units
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Greg Marzhew
Anytime Tryscorer
$2.15 - 1 Unit
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Greg Marzhew
First Tryscorer
$9.00 - 1 Unit
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