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New Zealand Breakers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL26 Round 20 Tips - Phoenix keep the pressure on
The South East Melbourne Phoenix continue their dominant streak against the New Zealand Breakers with a crucial win in NBL25 Round 20, solidifying their pursuit of the top spot ahead of the NBL Finals. Despite recent losses to Perth, the Phoenix rebounded with a significant victory against league leaders Adelaide, showcasing robust performance in rebounds. They lead by as much as 20 points in previous encounters with the Breakers and aim not to let their guard down again. Key players like John Brown and Nathan Sobey are expected to significantly impact the game.
- New Zealand Breakers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix expert predictions for Thursday’s Round 20 NBL matchup
- Tip-off is at 5:30 PM AEDT at Eventfinda Stadium
- Phoenix remains dominant with five consecutive wins over Breakers.
- Key player performances: John Brown's rebounds and Sobey's assists shine.
New Zealand Breakers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL26 Round 20 Tips
New Zealand Breakers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL25 Round 20 Expert Tips
The Phoenix will stay on the hunt for the top spot heading into the NBL Finals while putting in one of the final nails in the Breakers hopes of a play-in spot, with S.E.M getting their sixth consecutive victory over the New Zealand on Thursday night.
- New Zealand Breakers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL25 Round 20 Expert Tips
- Head to Head
- New Zealand Breakers Form & Team News
- South East Melbourne Phoenix Form & Team News
- New Zealand Breakers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix Frequently Asked Questions
Despite dropping their match in Perth, the Phoenix are still classed as one of the top three teams in the league that can take out the championship after brushing aside the league leaders Adelaide by 20 points on Saturday.
They come up against New Zealand, who they have dominated over the last couple of seasons and this will be a routine victory if they head into the match well aware of what the Breakers can do if they give them too much slack.
Last time they met in Round 18 the Phoenix went up by 20 in the first half and took their foot off the gas and it almost cost them with the Breakers edging close in the final stages. Don’t expect Josh King to let S.E.M do that again, but I do like the 3.5-point line at halftime for the Phoenix better than the 7.5 at fulltime.
For props I like the John Brown rebounds at a juicy $3.40 for double digits with the Phoenix import recording 14 + 13 boards in his last 2 matches and no Sam Mennega on the court for the Breakers.
In all three matches against New Zealand, Nathan Sobey has been a supplier as much as he has been a scorer, so take the MVP candidate for 5 dimes.
- SEM have won the last 5 matches against New Zealand
- SEM led by 20 points at halftime in their last match against New Zealand, 14 days ago.
- John Brown is averaging 13.5 rebounds in his last 2 matches.
- Nathan Sobey has had an average of 6.33 assists per match against New Zealand this season.
Head to Head
Last 5 Match Results
| Date | Home Team | Score | Line | Total Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/01/2026 | SEM | SEM 123-116 | NZB +9.5 | O 191.0 |
| 13/12/2025 | SEM | SEM 92-80 | SEM -5.5 | U 187.0 |
| 12/10/2025 | NZB | SEM 87-81 | SEM -2.0 | U 186.0 |
| 18/01/2025 | SEM | SEM 102-89 | SEM -6.5 | O 190.0 |
| 24/10/2024 | NZB | SEM 88-62 | SEM +4.5 | U 174.5 |
Offensive & Defensive Rankings
| NZB Off | Rank | Stat | Rank | SEM Def |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90.7 | 7 | PPG | 6 | 91.9 |
| 41.1 | 8 | RPG | 9 | 42.2 |
| 45.9% | 4 | FG% | 9 | 47.6% |
| 30.2% | 9 | 3P% | 9 | 34.5% |
| 11.6 | 6 | TOV | 1 | 17 |
| NZB Def | Rank | Stat | Rank | SEM Off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 92.2 | 7 | PPG | 1 | 100.4 |
| 41.2 | 4 | RPG | 6 | 41.8 |
| 46.8% | 7 | FG% | 10 | 44.0% |
| 33.0% | 6 | 3P% | 2 | 35.4% |
| 12.3 | 4 | TOV | 2 | 10.2 |
New Zealand Breakers Form & Team News
It was another mixed bag round for New Zealand, which basically sums up their whole season really. A big result against Melbourne on Friday night getting up 97-95 after a hug match from 2026 draftee Karim Lopez, who had 32 points and 8 rebounds, was then backed up poorly by a loss to Tasmania on Sunday, despite the JackJumpers basically running a second-string starting 5 due to injury.
The loss to Tassie could prove to be pivotal in the Breakers chances of making the Finals with the Jackies pushing out again to a 2 win margin in sixth instead of the pair being locked on 12 wins a-piece.
The game against Tassie was the worst performance from New Zealand in a while scoring under 90 points for the first time in 6 matches, shooting at 44.6 FG% ten percent worse than what they had shot in the 5 games prior. Lopez didn’t see the ball as much inside with the Breakers trying to attack Tasmania from outside the paint which obviously was a poor option.
South East Melbourne Phoenix Form & Team News
South East Melbourne suffered their second consecutive loss to Perth, losing once again to the Wildcats 101-93 in their Ignite Cup clash last Wednesday. Despite shooting well from three, the Phoenix struggled inside, combating the size of Jo Lual-Acuil and the versatile forwards of Perth scoring at just 38.5% from 2-point range.
All was forgiven though in their top of the table clash with Adelaide on Saturday. Rebounding back into form and the hunt for the number one seed into the NBL Finals, literally. The Phoenix cleaned up all of the crumbs out-rebounding Adelaide 54-37. John Brown lll led the way with 13 boards after registering 14 in the loss to Perth. While Jordan Hunter also hit double figures with 10.
The difference between Adelaide and S.E Melbourne was the bench. Ian Clark (12 points) and Malique Lewis (11 points) made a difference playing over 20 minutes each while the 36ers bench scored a total of 6 points.
New Zealand Breakers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix Frequently Asked Questions
What time does New Zealand Breakers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix start?
Tip-off between New Zealand Breakers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix is at 5:30 PM AEDT, Thursday, February 5
What channel is New Zealand Breakers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix on?
You can watch New Zealand Breakers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix on ESPN via Kayo and Foxtel.
Where can I livestream New Zealand Breakers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix?
If you are outside of Australia, the NBL allows you to stream live on YouTube via the official NBL channel
Verdict
John Brown will take 10 rebounds and Nathan Sobey will collect 5 assists as the Phoenix lead by 4+ points at halftime and go on to win the match.
S.E Melbourne -3.5
Half time Handicap
$1.91 - 3 Units
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John Brown
10+ Rebounds
$3.50 - 1 Unit
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Nathan Sobey
5+ Assists
$1.70 - 3 Units
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