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Richmond Tigers vs Adelaide Crows AFL Tips - Crows to cook the Tigers at the MCG on Sunday

Adam Cusworth

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Last updated: Thu 26 Jun 2025 12:10

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Adam Cusworth 26 Jun 2025

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Richmond Tigers vs Adelaide Crows expert predictions for Sunday’s Round 16 AFL game
The game will be played at MCG, with the bounce at 3:20 PM (AEST)
Can Adelaide chalk up another percentage booster?
Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet

Richmond Tigers vs Adelaide Crows AFL Tips

Richmond Tigers vs Adelaide Crows, Round 16 2025 - Expert Prediction

Richmond Tigers vs Adelaide Crows, Round 16 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Richmond Tigers Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Richmond Tigers Team News
Richmond Tigers Team List
Adelaide Crows Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Adelaide Crows Team News
Adelaide Crows Team List
Richmond Tigers vs Adelaide Crows AFL 2025 Round 16 FAQ’s

Adelaide look set for a big win when they take on Richmond at the MCG on Sunday with the 40+ margin there for the taking.

The Crows come off the bye in Round 15 and were on the opposite end of some close results prior to that, going down by Hawthorn in Round 14 by three points, which followed on from their five point victory over Brisbane. The Crows have a win-loss record of 9-5 and are 4th on the ladder.

Richmond are 17th and 3-11. The Tigers were outclassed by the Western Bulldogs in Round 15, going down by 79.

They have lacked depth around the ground and rank low in a number of statistical measures. It will be hard for them to kick a competitive score.

Up the other end, the likes of Riley Thilthorpe, Darcy Fogarty and Taylor Walker loom large. That trio will be keen to make amends after an inaccurate display against the Hawks the week before.

Take the Crows at the 40+. Jordan Dawson looks a strong play for the 25+, while Taylor Walker can wind back the clock with multiple goals.

Three of Adelaide’s past four matches against sides in the bottom half of the ladder have resulted in wins of 60 points or more.
Richmond rank last for scoring in the past five rounds, Adelaide are 5th.
Jordan Dawson has averaged 28 disposals in his past three matches against the Tigers
Taylor Walker has kicked 11 goals in his past three matches against Richmond

Head to Head

Richmond have a strong recent record over Adelaide, having won four of the past five between the two sides. They pulled off a big upset over the Crows in Round 13 last season at the Adelaide Oval, winning by eight points.

This is the first time the two have met at the MCG since 2018, a 47-point win for Richmond. The Tigers have won the past four at the venue against Adelaide, including the 2017 Grand Final.

Adelaide’s Rory Laird has averaged 29.5 disposals in his past four matches against Richmond, while Jordan Dawson has averaged 28 from his past three. Taylor Walker has kicked 11 goals from his past three, while Darcy Fogarty has booted nine.

Richmond Tigers Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
0-5	3-2	1-4

The wheels have fallen off at Richmond after some promising performances in the first half of the season. The young Tigers have lost their past five. The last two of those have been by 44 points against Sydney before the 79-point blowout against the Bulldogs last weekend.

They have found it hard to win the footy in the past five rounds and rank 17th for clearances, loose ball gets and disposals. Tim Taranto has had 25+ disposals in his past two matches and in eight of his past 11. Nick Vlaustin had 28 across halfback against the Bulldogs last weekend.

The lack of ball winning ability has not produced enough supply up forward and the Tigers rank last for inside 50s and scoring in the past five rounds. Tom Lynch kicked three goals against the Bulldogs and has hit the 2+ in four of his past five.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
7-7	4-10	3-5	0-6

Richmond Tigers Team News

Jayden Short is getting closer towards returning from a calf injury. There aren't too many Tigers banging down the door with form in the VFL. The No.12 draft pick, Taj Hotton, made his debut at that level last weekend after injury kept him out of the action until now. He is likely to need more time to develop.

Richmond Tigers Team List

B: B.Miller, N.Balta, N.Broad

HB: S.Banks, T.Brown, N.Vlastuin

C: H.Ralphsmith, D.Prestia, L.Trainor

HF: S.Campbell, J.Ross, S.Green

F: R.Mansell, T.Lynch, J.Faull

FOLL: T.Nankervis - C, T.Taranto, J.Hopper

I/C (FROM): T.Sonsie, K.McIntosh, K.Smith, T.Sims, J.Alger, J.Trezise, M.Lefau, J.Blight

In: - J.Trezise, M.Lefau, J.Blight

Out: -

Adelaide Crows Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
3-2	4-1	1-4

Adelaide have won three of their past four, chalking up big wins over West Coast and Sydney before scraping through against a wayward Brisbane by five points prior to their loss to Hawthorn.

Despite coming up against some of the top sides in their past five matches, the Crows top the competition for inside 50s in that period, while they are 5th for clearances and scoring.

Josh Rachele went goalless against Hawthorn but had kicked 11 goals in his three matches prior to that. Riley Thilthorpe and Darcy Fogarty are averaging 2+ goals per game this season.

In the Hawthorn match, Jordan Dawson picked up 24 disposals, while Izak Rankine had 23. Dawson has had 20+ in nine of his past 11 matches. Rory Laird has had 25+ in three of his past four.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
9-5	4-10	4-5	5-0

Adelaide Crows Team News

James Peatling will return from suspension, while Nick Murray is set to play his first match since Round 7. The defender returned from a knee injury via the SANFL and should be ready to go.

Adelaide Crows Team List

B: J.Worrell, J.Butts, R.Laird

HB: M.Michalanney, M.Keane, W.Milera

C: I.Cumming, J.Dawson - C, D.Curtin

HF: B.Keays, R.Thilthorpe, J.Soligo

F: A.Neal-Bullen, T.Walker, D.Fogarty

FOLL: R.O’Brien, I.Rankine, S.Berry

I/C (FROM): B.Smith, C.Burgess, M.Hinge, J.Rachele, J.Peatling, C.Jones, Z.Taylor, L.Murphy

In: - C.Burgess, J.Peatling, C.Jones, Z.Taylor

Out: - L.Pedlar (Injured)

Richmond Tigers vs Adelaide Crows AFL 2025 Round 16 FAQ’s

How to watch Richmond Tigers vs Adelaide Crows AFL 2025 Round 16?

You can watch the Richmond Tigers vs Adelaide Crows AFL 2025 Round 16 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Richmond Tigers vs Adelaide Crows AFL 2025 Round 16?

To buy tickets to the Richmond Tigers vs Adelaide Crows AFL 2025 Round 16 game check the AFL website or the official Richmond Tigers site.

Verdict

Richmond Tigers v Adelaide Crows

Crows to win big. Dawson strong for 25+ disposals and to firm in Brownlow betting. Tex Walker value for 2+ goals.

Adelaide -37.5

Handicap +37.5

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