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Newcastle Knights vs Parramatta Eels NRL Round 11 Tips - Blues connection gives Parra a spark

jeremy-darke
Jeremy Darke
Editor
Last updated: Tue. 13 May 2025 17:52

The Round 11 matchup between Newcastle Knights and Parramatta Eels is set to be a closely contested game. Parramatta, despite previous losses, is backed to cover the line, buoyed by Zac Lomax's return to team up with Mitch Moses. With Knights' attack struggling, the game might not be high-scoring. Fletcher Sharpe emerges as a crucial player for Newcastle. Parramatta has a good track record against the Knights with six wins in their last seven encounters.

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Jeremy Darke 13 May 2025
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  • Newcastle Knights vs Parramatta Eels expert predictions for Friday’s Round 11 NRL game
  • Kick off is at 6:00 PM (AEST) at McDonald Jones Stadium
  • Zac Lomax returns to Parramatta, boosting their attack lineup alongside Mitch Moses.
  • Newcastle Knights' attack is the weakest, averaging just 13.6 points per game.
Will the Eels pay this week?

Newcastle Knights vs Parramatta Eels, Round 11 2025 - Expert Prediction


The first sign of insanity is doing the same thing and expecting a different result. I guess I’m crazy, backing the Eels once again to cover the line for the third week in a row, failing in the last two. 
  • Newcastle Knights vs Parramatta Eels, Round 11 2025 - Expert Prediction
  • Head to Head 
  • Newcastle Knights Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Newcastle Knights Team News
  • Newcastle Knights Team List
  • Parramatta Eels Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Parramatta Eels Team News
  • Parramatta Eels Team List
  • Newcastle Knights vs Parramatta Eels NRL 2025 Round 11 FAQ’s

But here we are again backing Parramatta and the return of Zac Lomax to give them the spark they need to get another win. The Eels centre will hook up with the 2024 NSW halfback Mitch Moses, this time in dark blue and gold, with a dream of reigniting the connection they had that won the Blues the Origin series. 

The Knights attack has been awful as well, the worst in the comp, and this game will come down to which team takes their chances in attack. I’m not expecting the scoreboard to blow up in this match, with the Knights defence generally being a tough beat, but Parramatta will be able to do enough to neutralize the Knights scoring and the Eels will cover with a 2.5 point start.

Fletcher Sharpe has been electric for the Knights and has scored in 4 of his last 5 games and will be a danger to the result for the Eels if he cannot be contained for the majority of the match.

  • Parramatta have won 6 of their last 7 games against Newcastle.
  • The Knights attack is the worst in the comp, averaging just 13.6 points per game
  • 14 of 18 matches involving the Eels and Knights in 2024 have hit the Under. 
  • Fletcher Sharpe has 6 tries in his last 5 games for the Knights.

Head to Head 


The Knights won the only match against the Eels in 2024, beating Parramatta 34-26 at McDonald Jones Stadium.

The win for Newcastle was the first against the blue & gold in 7 matches. 

The previous 4 matches between the Knights and Eels has gone over the game total. 

Newcastle Knights Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
1-41-41-4

The Knights gave up a 20-point lead to the Gold Coast to lose their sixth game in 7 matches in a disappointing display that saw them lose their first game to the Titans at home in 8 matches 24-20. 

It was a tale of two halves with the knights having 59% possession and 63% of the territory at half time, however that got turned on its head after the break with the Titans completing 21/25 sets with 68% of the ball and 60% of the territory.

After looking sharp in attack over the last 3 halves of footy, Newcastle fell back into their bad habits and didn’t score against the Titans which has been their biggest crux all season, ranked 17th in the league, averaging just 13.6 points per game. 

2025 Betting Trends
ATSOver/Under1-1213+
2-71-81-12-5

Newcastle Knights Team News


Fletcher Hunt comes in on the wing due to an injury to Greg Marzhew in the only change for Adam O’Brien this week. 

Adam Elliot will move into the starting lock position with Thomas Cant moving to the bench. 

Newcastle Knights Team List


1. Kalyn Ponga 
2. James Schiller
3. Dane Gagai
4. Bradman Best 
5. Fletcher Hunt 
6. Fletcher Sharpe
7. Jack Cogger 
8. Jacob Saifiti 
9. Phoenix Crossland
10. Tyson Frizell
11. Dylan Lucas
12. Kai Pearce-Paul 
13. Adam Elliott

Interchange
14. Jayden Brailey 
15. Mat Croker
16. Thomas Cant
17. Brodie Jones 

Reserves
18. Jack Hetherington 
19. Tyson Gamble 
20. Matthew Arthur 
21. Kyle McCarthy
22. Paul Bryan

Parramatta Eels Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
2-32-32-3

Parramatta did a lot right against the Dolphins last week in their 20-16 loss at Commbank last Thursday night, however, there is plenty of improvement needed.

I have been on the Eels to start getting better results but it just hasn’t eventuated, even with the addition of Mitch Moses into the team over the last couple of weeks. The Eels still don’t have enough strike power in attack to be dangerous in their redzone and that is once again what hurt them against the Dolphins. 

The Eels looked good when they through the ball around late, playing low percentage plays, however, they do not have the defensive capabilities to make that work long term. With Zac Lomax returning this week, they should see a boost in attack.   

2025 Betting Trends
ATSOver/Under1-1213+
4-53-61-31-4

Parramatta Eels Team News


Zac Lomax returns just in time to be given one shot to prove his worth for the Blues Squad after an outstanding debut campaign in 2024. Lomax will replace Bailey Simonsson who left the field with a foot injury.

Charlie Guymer has been dropped and Matt Doorey takes his place in the second row with Toni Mataele given the chance to make his NRL debut.

Parramatta Eels Team List


1. Isaiah Iongi
2. Zac Lomax 
3. Will Penisini
4. Sean Russell 
5. Josh Addo-Carr
6. Dylan Brown
7. Mitch Moses
8. Jack Williams
9. Ryley Smith
10. Junior Paulo
11. Matt Doorey 
12. Kitione Kautoga
13. J'maine Hopgood

Interchange
14. Dylan Walker
15. Luca Moretti 
16. Jordan Samrani
17. Toni Mataele

Reserves
18. Joash Papalii
19. Ryan Matterson
20. Dean Hawkins
21. Jake Tago 
22. Brendan Hands

Newcastle Knights vs Parramatta Eels NRL 2025 Round 11 FAQ’s

How to watch Newcastle Knights vs Parramatta Eels NRL 2025 Round 11?

You can watch the Newcastle Knights vs Parramatta Eels NRL 2025 Round 11 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Newcastle Knights vs Parramatta Eels NRL 2025 Round 11?

To buy tickets to the Newcastle Knights vs Parramatta Eels NRL 2025 Round 11 game check the NRL website or the official Newcastle Knights site.

Verdict

Parramatta will cover as the away underdog in a low-scoring match that goes under the game total.

Fletcher Sharpe will score his 7th try in 6 matches.
Best Bet1: Parramatta +2.5 Handicap/Line $1.90 at Elitebet - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Under 46.5 Game Total $1.91 at betr - 2 Units
Best Bet3: Fletcher Sharpe Anytime Tryscorer $2.55 at dabble - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Fletcher Sharpe First Tryscorer $11.00 at dabble - 1 Unit
Parramatta +2.5
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Newcastle Knights v Parramatta Eels

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