Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers AFL Round 14 Tips - Demons to get over the line in tricky MCG matchup
The Melbourne Demons are favored to win against Essendon Bombers in their AFL 2026 Round 14 clash at the MCG. Although the Bombers defeated the Demons earlier this season, Melbourne’s recent improvement—breaking a two-game losing streak with a big win over Collingwood—puts them in a strong position. The match is expected to be low-scoring, influenced by both teams’ recent performances and likely wet conditions. Melbourne is backed to win by 1-39 points, with Kozzie Pickett and Jack Steele tipped as key contributors.
- The game will be played at MCG on Saturday, 13th June, with the bounce at 1:15 PM (AEST)
- Can the Bombers upset Melbourne twice in 2026?
- Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet
Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers, Round 14 2026 Expert Prediction
- Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers, Round 14 2026 Expert Prediction
- Head to Head Stats
- Melbourne Demons Form Analysis
- Essendon Bombers Form Analysis
- Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers Team List & News
- Melbourne Demons Team News
- Essendon Bombers Team News
- Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers AFL 2026 Round 14 FAQ’s
Melbourne will turn the tables on Essendon at the MCG on Saturday afternoon in what shapes as a low-scoring match at the home of footy.
The Demons suffered a shock loss to the Bombers earlier this season during Gather Round and are the only side to drop points to the bottom side in 2026.
That result has proven to be an anomaly and we can expect the Demons to be more than ready this time around.
Melbourne bounced back from a two-match losing streak with a gutsy eight-point win over Collingwood on King’s Birthday and remain firmly in the mix for a top-four finish with an 8-5 record.
The Demons rank fifth in the AFL for scoring and fourth for inside 50s this season, highlighting their ability to create opportunities. Their challenge has been maximising those chances when games tighten up, but they delivered late against the Magpies and should have enough class to bank another win.
Essendon have shown signs of improvement defensively and were brave in their five-point loss to Carlton last weekend. The Bombers forced that game into an arm wrestle and look more stable behind the ball, while their recent focus on front-half pressure and territory has contributed to lower-scoring contests.
Melbourne's midfield depth, Max Gawn's ruck presence and the match-winning ability of Kozzie Pickett and Bayley Fritsch give them the edge but Essendon can make this a grind in an attempt to not allow the game to open up with the Demons coming off a five-day break following their taxing King's Birthday clash.
That combination, as well as some forecast wet weather, points towards a tighter, lower-scoring contest than Melbourne’s attacking ability may suggest but the Dees should still be able to control enough territory and win the key midfield battles, eventually wearing the Bombers down.
The play is Melbourne to win by 1-39 points, with the match going under the total points. Kozzie Pickett is one player that should thrive at ground level and is always dangerous for multiple goals, while Jack Steele will continue his good run of form in Melbourne colours
- Essendon’s recent matches have been low scoring, with their past four games producing totals at an average of 144.
- The Bombers defeated Melbourne earlier this season.
- Jack Steele has had 25+ disposals in four of his past five matches against Essendon
- Kozzie Pickett booted three goals last weekend
Head to Head Stats
Essendon were surprise winners the last time the two sides met, taking out the Gather Round clash at Adelaide Oval by 45 points. The Bombers have won the past two between the two sides, while Melbourne were winners the last time they met at the MCG.
Standout player performances in the recent head-to-heads have come from:
- Archie Roberts (Dons) – 42 disposals in the Gather Round clash this season
- Zach Merrett (Dons) – averaging 34 disposals in his past five against Melbourne
- Jack Steele (Dees) – 25+ disposals in four of his past five against the Bombers
- Bayley Fritsch (Dees) – 2+ goals in four of his past five against the Dons
Melbourne Demons Form Analysis
Melbourne remain firmly in top-four contention with an 8-5 record, overcoming a two-match losing streak to knock over Collingwood in the King’s Birthday encounter by eight points.
The Demons rank fifth in the AFL for scoring and fourth for inside 50s this season, highlighting their ability to create opportunities. Their challenge has been maximising those chances when games tighten up, but they delivered late against the Magpies.
Kozzie Pickett was best on ground with 28 disposals and three goals, while Jack Steele and Harvey Langford both had 26 disposals. Steele has had 25+ disposals in four of his past five matches, while Max Gawn continues to be a force in the ruck.
Essendon Bombers Form Analysis
Essendon have won just one match this season and remain anchored to the bottom of the ladder, but came close last week in the King’s Birthday Eve clash against Carlton, going down by just five points.
That followed a 30-point loss to West Coast the week prior, which was the first of two matches since the club parted ways with Brad Scott.
Zach Merrett led the way with 33 disposals against Carlton, while Will Setterfield had 29 disposals and Sam Durham finished with 30. Merrett has had 30+ disposals in two of his past three, while Archie Roberts has hit that mark in eight of his past 10.
Ben McKay was used as a forward against Carlton and booted two goals. Nate Caddy kicked one but has kicked 2+ in six of his past seven.
Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers Team List & News
- to be updated after team selection on Thursday
Melbourne Demons Team News
Brody Mihocek suffered a nasty injury that resulted in a series neck injury and concussion against his former side, Collingwood, and will miss. Changkuoth Jiath is edging closer to a return from a knee injury, while Max Heath and mid-season rookie draft selection Joel Fitzgerald come off some solid form in the VFL.
Essendon Bombers Team News
Essendon pulled up unscathed on the injury front in the match against Carlton. Dyson Sharp and Angus Clarke are among those on the lengthy injury list who are edging closer to returning, while Jordan Ridley was dominant in the VFL last weekend and should come back in.
Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers AFL 2026 Round 14 FAQ’s
How to watch Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers AFL 2026 Round 14?
You can watch the Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers AFL 2026 Round 14 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.
How to buy tickets to Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers AFL 2026 Round 14?
To buy tickets to the Melbourne Demons vs Essendon Bombers AFL 2026 Round 14 game check the AFL website or the official Melbourne Demons site.
Verdict
Melbourne to win with the total points going under. Pickett and Steele among the major contributers
Melbourne 1-39
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