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Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies AFL Round 22 Tips - Pies to sink Hawks finals hopes in tight one

Adam Cusworth

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Last updated: Wed 06 Aug 2025 10:39

Adam Cusworth 06 Aug 2025

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Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies expert predictions for Thursday’s Round 22 AFL game
The game will be played at MCG, with the bounce at 7:30 PM (AEST)
Can the Hawks lift with season on the line?
Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet

Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies AFL Round 22 Tips

Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies, Round 22 2025 - Expert Prediction

Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies, Round 22 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Hawthorn Hawks Team News
Hawthorn Hawks Team List
Collingwood Magpies Form Analysis & Betting Trends
2025 Betting Trends
Collingwood Magpies Team News
Collingwood Magpies Team List
Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies AFL 2025 Round 22 FAQ’s

Finals hopes hang by a thread for the Hawks as they return to the MCG on Thursday night to face a Collingwood side determined to secure a top-two finish.

The Hawks need to win at least two of their last three matches to qualify for the top eight and are sitting in 7th spot with a 13-7 win-loss record. They gave up late goals to go down to the ladder leaders, Adelaide, in Adelaide last weekend by 15 points.

Collingwood’s grip on a top four spot is beginning to look shaky after three recent losses and they have dropped to 2nd spot after going down to Brisbane last weekend by 27.

Hawthorn and Collingwood met as recently as Round 12 and the Magpies were dominant winners but this rivalry has had its twists — the teams have alternated wins over their past eight encounters, and Hawthorn shocked the Pies at the same stage in 2024

The loss of star midfielder Will Day comes at the worst possible time for Hawthorn, while Collingwood have welcomed back key players and remain the best defensive unit in the league, despite their recent struggles.

This will go to the brink but with Day out of the equation and there are question marks over Hawthorn’s midfield depth. They will need huge matches from the likes of Jai Newcombe and Conor Nash. But the Magpies’ structure, ball control, and forward threats like Brody Mihocek should prove the difference.

Collingwood took out the Round 12 encounter this season by 51 points.
16 of Hawthorn’s 20 matches this season have landed in the 1-39 point range
Brody Mihocek has kicked 2+ in four of his past five matches
Hawthorn’s Conor Nash has averaged 26 disposals in his past four matches against Collingwood

Head to Head

Collingwood were dominant against Hawthorn earlier this season, taking out the Round 12 clash by 51 points. The two sides have alternated wins the last eight times they have played and the Hawks were big winners over the Pies at a similar stage last season.

Hawthorn’s Conor Nash has averaged 26 disposals in his past four matches against Collingwood. Nick Daicos has averaged just 22 for the Magpies in his past four. Jamie Elliott has kicked 10 goals for Collingwood from his past four against the Hawks, while the former Pie, Jack Ginnivan, has kicked seven from his three matches against his former club.

Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
3-2	2-3	2-3

Hawthorn have won six of eight since facing Collingwood back in Round 12 but have lost their past two against top eight sides and are 2-6 against sides in the top half of the competition this season.

16 of Hawthorn’s 20 matches this season have landed in the 1-39 point range, including their past five.

The Hawks did a lot right against the Crows but turned the ball over more than their opposition, putting their defence under siege with 56 inside 50s to 49. Massimo D’Ambrosio hit the 25 disposals, while Jack Gunston booted another four goals to make it 49 from 17 matches this season.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
11-9	8-12	10-6	3-1

Hawthorn Hawks Team News

Shattering news for Hawthorn with Will Day suffering yet another foot injury. The gun midfielder is done for the season. Cam McKenzie is a possible replacement. James Worpel started as the sub last weekend and is likely to be in the starting 22. Interesting to see if the Hawks opt for four tall forwards again.

Hawthorn Hawks Team List

B: J.Battle, T.Barrass, B.Hardwick

HB: J.Impey, J.Sicily - C, J.Scrimshaw

C: M.D’Ambrosio, C.Nash, K.Amon

HF: J.Gunston, C.Dear, N.Watson

F: J.Ginnivan, M.Lewis, D.Moore

FOLL: L.Meek, J.Newcombe, J.Worpel

I/C: C.Macdonald, J.Ward, M.Chol, L.Breust, C.Jiath

EMG: J.Serong, S.Butler, C.Mackenzie

In: - L.Breust, C.Jiath

Out: - H.Morrison (Injured), W.Day (Injured)

Collingwood Magpies Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
2-3	1-4	1-4

Collingwood lost three of their past four matches and those losses have all been against sides in the top eight. The Magpies have a win-loss record of 4-5 against top eight opponents in 2025.

However, the Magpies remain one of the teams to beat and a major reason for the success that sees them sit in 2nd spot has been their structure and team defence, leading to being the competition’s best at fewest points conceded. Brisbane’s tally of 92 was the most they have conceded since the opening round.

Collingwood top the competition for disposals over the past five rounds and Nick Daicos has averaged 35 disposals in that period. He had 29 in the loss to Brisbane but the Magpies lacked a target up forward and only had one multiple goalkicker, Steele Sidebottom. Brody Mihocek has kicked 2+ in four of his past five matches, while Tim Membrey has kicked 2+ in five of his past six.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
10-10	7-13	9-4	6-1

Collingwood Magpies Team News

Jordan de Goey and Bobby Hill returned last week, while Jeremy Howe is expected to return from a groin injury. His presence will bolster the Pies defensive stocks.

Collingwood Magpies Team List

B: B.Maynard, D.Moore - C, B.Frampton

HB: J.Daicos, H.Perryman, I.Quaynor

C: S.Sidebottom, N.Daicos, J.Crisp

HF: W.Hoskin-Elliott, D.McStay, L.Schultz

F: J.Elliott, B.Mihocek, P.Lipinski

FOLL: D.Cameron, S.Pendlebury, N.Long

I/C: J.De Goey, T.Mitchell, D.Houston, T.Membrey, J.Howe

EMG: W.Parker, E.Allan, M.Cox

In: - B.Frampton, T.Mitchell, J.Howe

Out: - C.Dean (Omitted), B.Hill (Illness), O.Markov (Omitted)

Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies AFL 2025 Round 22 FAQ’s

How to watch Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies AFL 2025 Round 22?

You can watch the Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies AFL 2025 Round 22 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies AFL 2025 Round 22?

To buy tickets to the Hawthorn Hawks vs Collingwood Magpies AFL 2025 Round 22 game check the AFL website or the official Hawthorn Hawks site.

Verdict

Hawthorn Hawks v Colllingwood Magpies

Magpies in a tight one with Mihocek on for 2+ goals. Conor Nash amongst the better Hawks

Collingwood 1-39

Margin

$2.25 - 1 Unit

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Brody Mihocek

To Score 2 or More Goals

$1.96 - 1 Unit

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Conor Nash

To Get 20 or More Disposals

$2.27 - 1 Unit

Bet with Palmerbet

Personal Service for Racing & Sport

18+ only. T&Cs apply. Stay in Control. Gamble Responsibly. Think! About your choices. Call Gambling Help on 1800 858 858 or visit www.gamblinghelponline.org.au.

Bet at Palmerbet