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Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans AFL Round 22 Tips - Swans still can’t beat Brisbane
In the AFL 2025 Round 22 match, the Brisbane Lions are expected to defeat the Sydney Swans comfortably at the Gabba. Despite Brisbane's key players like Lachie Neale being out, their recent solid form and dominant gameplay are expected to prevail over the Swans, who have struggled with injuries and confidence. With Brisbane vying for a minor premiership and heightened expectations from Logan Morris and Will Ashcroft, the game is set to be enthralling. Betting tips suggest taking Lions 1-39 and the Game Total Under.
- Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans expert predictions for Saturday’s Round 22 AFL game
- The game will be played at Gabba, with the bounce at 4:15 PM (AEST)
- Brisbane Lions expected to win against Sydney Swans, despite key absences.
- Swans affected by injuries and suspensions, impacting their form.
- Lions' strong form and home advantage at the Gabba give them the edge.
Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans AFL Round 22 Tips
Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans, Round 22 2025 - Expert Prediction
Brisbane have a couple of key outs but are still likely to take care of the Swans comfortably this Saturday afternoon at the Gabba.
- Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans, Round 22 2025 - Expert Prediction
- Head to Head
- Brisbane Lions Form Analysis & Betting Trends
- Recent Form
- 2025 Betting Trends
- Brisbane Lions Team News
- Brisbane Lions Team List
- Sydney Swans Form Analysis & Betting Trends
- Recent Form
- 2025 Betting Trends
- Sydney Swans Team News
- Sydney Swans Team List
- Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans AFL 2025 Round 22 FAQ’s
Fans got what they wanted in the Grand Final rematch in Round 1 earlier this year with a tight contest between these two teams. Fast forward to Round 22 and the Lions and Swans are in completely different situations, Brisbane looking at a possible minor premiership and title defence while Sydney won’t be playing finals footy.
Injuries and suspensions have derailed the Swans season and it has been clear that they have struggled with confidence and discipline in their game play as a result of that. Their only real shining light has been Brodie Grundy who has absolutely dominated opponent Rucks as he pushes for All-Australian inclusion.
Brisbane are the 2nd best team in the league at Stoppage Clearances and 3rd best at getting Inside 50. Their mids are elite and the talent is deep. The backline is solid and while they rank 9th in points conceded this season they have the firepower to more often than not outscore their opponents.
Sydney will likely show up for this fight, it means something different coming off a Grand Final loss, but Brisbane are the superior team and will win. Take the Lions 1-39 and the Game Total Under with Sydney’s scoring down over the past couple of weeks. Will Ashcroft will need to pick up some slack with Neale out, have a sprinkle on 30+ while Logan Morris is a solid pick for 2+ goals.
- Brisbane have a chokehold over Sydney winning 7 of the last 8 games including last year’s Grand Final.
- Sydney have averaged just 70 points over their last 3 games, almost 10 points fewer than their average up until that point. The Under has hit in the last 2 games between these teams.
- Will Ashcroft is averaging 27.1 disposals this season. He had 30 last week and will likely need to be more present with Lachie Neale out injured.
- Logan Morris is an emerging star, he kicked 6 goals against Collingwood last weekend and is averaging 2.1 per game on 61% accuracy.
Head to Head
Brisbane have won 6 of the last 7 regular season matchups as well as the 2024 Grand Final showing their dominance against Sydney in recent years.
Their game earlier this season in Round 1 finished 86-82 in favour of the Lions.
Game Totals have gone Under in 2 straight regular season games but had gone over in 5 straight prior to that. Apart from the Grand Final, all results since 2019 have stayed within the 1-39 pt margin range.
Brisbane Lions Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
| Last 5 W/L | Last 5 ATS | Last 5 O/U |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
The Lions pulled off a massive win last weekend taking down Collingwood 92-65 at the MCG. The win keeps them in touch with the top of the ladder, just two competition points and a big percentage gap from the Crows and Pies.
Brisbane have been able to do what few Premiers before them have in recent years, stay competitive following a flag. It has not been easy though with the team having to work hard late in games to come from behind to win.
Heading into this weekend they have won 5 of their last 6 while averaging 92.8 pts per game and allowing just 80 pts to their opponents.
2025 Betting Trends
| ATS | Over/Under | 1-39 | 40+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-10 | 7-13 | 12-3 | 2-2 |
Brisbane Lions Team News
Lachie Neale will miss the rest of the regular season with a quad injury sustained in the win over Collingwood. Ryan Lester is also out with concussion protocols.
Brisbane Lions Team List
B: D.Zorko, D.Gardiner, T.Doedee
HB: D.Wilmot, H.Andrews - C, B.Starcevich
C: J.Fletcher, H.McCluggage, J.Berry
HF: C.Cameron, E.Hipwood, Z.Bailey
F: C.Rayner, L.Morris, C.Ah Chee
FOLL: D.Fort, J.Dunkley, W.Ashcroft
I/C: L.Ashcroft, S.Marshall, H.Smith, W.McLachlan, B.Reville
EMG: D.Robertson, L.Beecken, D.Joyce
In: - T.Doedee, W.McLachlan
Out: - R.Lester (Injured), L.Neale (Injured)
Sydney Swans Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
| Last 5 W/L | Last 5 ATS | Last 5 O/U |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
The Swans did well to come out on top against Essendon last weekend 68-54 following a season defining loss the weekend prior. The conditions were poor in Sydney following heavy rain so a masterclass was not expected.
Brodie Grundy was again in career best form racking up 39 disposals, 22 of them contested with 13 clearances and 32 hitouts as Sydney dominated the stoppages. The team ranks 3rd in Hitouts Win Percentage and hold their opponents to the 3rd fewest Stoppage Clearances.
Sydney have a strong defensive unit and get their play going off their half backline primarily through Nick Blakey. Their rebound 50 rate is just below league average.
2025 Betting Trends
| ATS | Over/Under | 1-39 | 40+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9-11 | 7-13 | 8-7 | 2-3 |
Sydney Swans Team News
Will Hayward and Hayden McLean could both lace up should they pass fitness tests. Ben Paton will miss the remainder of the season after injuring his knee last weekend.
Sydney Swans Team List
B: L.Melican, D.Rampe, T.McCartin
HB: C.Mills - C, N.Blakey, S.Wicks
C: O.Florent, Ch.Warner, J.Lloyd
HF: J.Rowbottom, J.Buller, J.Jordon
F: J.McInerney, T.Papley, J.Dattoli
FOLL: B.Grundy, I.Heeney, E.Gulden
I/C: H.Cunningham, A.Sheldrick, B.Campbell, H.McLean, C.Cleary
EMG: P.Ladhams, M.Roberts, Co.Warner
In: - H.McLean
Out: - P.Ladhams (Omitted)
Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans AFL 2025 Round 22 FAQ’s
How to watch Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans AFL 2025 Round 22?
You can watch the Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans AFL 2025 Round 22 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.
How to buy tickets to Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans AFL 2025 Round 22?
To buy tickets to the Brisbane Lions vs Sydney Swans AFL 2025 Round 22 game check the AFL website or the official Brisbane Lions site.
Verdict
Take the Lions 1-39 and the Game Total Under with Sydney’s scoring down over the past couple of weeks. Will Ashcroft will need to pick up some slack with Neale out, have a sprinkle on 30+ while Logan Morris is a solid pick for 2+ goals.
Brisbane 1-39
Winning Margin
$2.00 - 2 Units
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Under 168.5
Game Total
$1.90 - 2 Units
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Will Ashcroft 30+
Disposals
$3.00 - 1 Unit
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Logan Morris 2+
Goals
$1.35 - 2 Units
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