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Gold Coast Suns vs Hawthorn Hawks Round 10 AFL Tips - Suns to stay hot in Darwin

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Tue 13 May 2025 10:04

Ryan Tucker 13 May 2025

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Gold Coast Suns vs Hawthorn Hawks expert predictions for Thursday’s Round 10 AFL game
The game will be played at TIO Stadium, with the bounce at 7:30 PM (AEST)
Gold Coast Suns favored to win against Hawthorn Hawks in Round 10 at TIO Stadium.
Suns excel in short rest games and have superior ruck play and clearances.
Hawthorn Hawks face tough travel and conditions; expected narrow loss.

Gold Coast Suns vs Hawthorn Hawks Rd 10 Tips

Gold Coast Suns vs Hawthorn Hawks, Round 10 2025 - Expert Prediction

Gold Coast will make it 2 from 2 at TIO Stadium this year and 8 in a row at the venue with a win over Hawthorn this Thursday night.

It is a short turnaround for both clubs on just 5 days rest with both teams having played on Saturday. Hawthorn will need to travel to Darwin on a 4.5 hour flight and adjust quickly to the oppressive conditions there while the Suns have set up camp following their win last weekend against the Dogs.

Hawthorn have played in just 5 games with 5 days rest since the start of 2019 and have lost all of them while the Suns are more accustomed having won their last 2 games on short rest including this corresponding back to back in Darwin last season.

The Suns are creating more scoring chances by getting Inside 50 compared to Hawthorn but the Hawks have a higher efficiency rate meaning this will likely result in a close finish. Gold Coast have a superior ruck and lead slightly in average clearances per game which gives them the edge in an important aspect of the game.

Hawthorn are good at marking the ball and gaining uncontested possessions. My expectation is that Gold Coast will pressure their handballing out of trouble leading to turnovers which they can capitalise on.

Take the Suns to win 1-39 given Hawthorn haven’t lost by more points in 17 games. The conditions and travel will be too much for the Hawks who will likely try hard early but ultimately fade late, going Under their Team Total. John Noble will have 25+ disposals.

Gold Coast have won 7 in a row at TIO Stadium.
The Hawks have not won a game on 5 days rest since before 2019.
12 of 18 results from these two teams have finished with 1-39 pt margins.
John Noble had 23 touches last week but went 25+ in 5 of previous 7 including 4 straight leading into last weekend.

Head to Head

Gold Coast have won 2 in a row and 4 of the last 5 against Hawthorn. The Hawks have won just 3 games out of 7 dating back to the start of the 2019 season.

The Game Total has gone Over in 5 of 7 matchups but in only 1 of the last 3. The winning margin has been 40+ in 5 of 7 games these two teams have played during the same time span.

Gold Coast Suns Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
3-2	3-2	3-2

The Suns held off a fast finishing Western Bulldogs last weekend in the first of their back to back games in Darwin. They led by 28 points midway through the final term but allowed their opponents to breathe a bit of life late before securing the win by 10 points 106-96.

Daniel Rioli was magnificent in front of his hometown fans picking up 24 disposals including a goal from 50m which sent the crowd wild. The Suns midfield corp did their job well with Jarrod Witts winning the hitouts against Tim English 38-32.

The Suns lead the league in Inside 50’s, give up the 5th fewest turnovers and are 5th in the AFL in Stoppage Clearances.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
5-3	5-3	3-2	3-0

Gold Coast Suns Team News

Will Graham hurt his shoulder in last week’s win with a timeline yet to be confirmed. Last week’s sub Jake Rogers is also out with an ankle injury. Ben Long made his return without any problems.

Gold Coast Suns Team List

Team list yet to be released.

Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
3-2	2-3	2-3

The Hawks took care of business against the newly confident Melbourne Demons last weekend winning by 25 points, 91-56 after giving up the lead briefly in the 3rd term.

Veteran Jack Gunston continued to improve his season stats, stepping up late to kick 3 goals in the last quarter to secure victory for his team. Gunston is now 2nd in the race for the Coleman Medal after starting the season not even in the top 23.

Hawthorn were slow out of the gates against the Demons but were able to rally late with 20 Inside 50’s to their opponents 9 in the 4th stanza. James Worpel finished with 28 disposals including 6 clearances as well as 10 tackles, a dominant best on ground performance.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
6-3	4-5	5-2	2-0

Hawthorn Hawks Team News

Jack Gunston for all his effort has been managed this along with Lloyd Meek with both players staying in Melbourne. Luke Breust is also out but the Hawks look like getting Jack Scrimshaw and Cam Mackenzie back pending fitness tests.

Hawthorn Hawks Team List

Team list yet to be released.

Gold Coast Suns vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Round 10 FAQ’s

How to watch Gold Coast Suns vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Round 10?

You can watch the Gold Coast Suns vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Round 10 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Gold Coast Suns vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Round 10?

To buy tickets to the Gold Coast Suns vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Round 10 game check the AFL website or the official Gold Coast Suns site.

Verdict

Gold Coast v Hawthorn

Gold Coast 1-39

Winning Margin

$2.25 - 2 Units

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Hawthorn Under 89.5

Team Total

$1.90 - 2 Units

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Bet at Playup

J Noble 25+

Disposals

$2.15 - 1 Unit

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