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Brisbane Lions vs Melbourne Demons AFL Tips - Lions start slow but get the win

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Thu 15 May 2025 12:30

Jeremy Darke 15 May 2025

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Brisbane Lions vs Melbourne Demons expert predictions for Sunday’s Round 10 AFL game
The game will be played at Gabba, with the bounce at 3:20 PM (AEST)
Brisbane has a pattern of slow starts, failing to score above 24.5 points in first quarters.
Dayne Zorko anticipated to play a key role with over 25 disposals.

Jez is tipping the Lions to get the win, find out why.

Brisbane Lions vs Melbourne Demons, Round 10 2025 - Expert Prediction

The Lions will bounce back from their undesirable draw against the Roos last week with a 1-39 victory, however they won’t have it all their way.

Brisbane Lions vs Melbourne Demons, Round 10 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Brisbane Lions Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Brisbane Lions Team News
Brisbane Lions Team List
Melbourne Demons Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Melbourne Demons Team News
Melbourne Demons Team List
Brisbane Lions vs Melbourne Demons AFL 2025 Round 10 FAQ’s

Brisbane were ordinary last week considering there were 16 places between them and North Melbourne on the ladder and they will be hoping that those two points they lost doesn't come back to haunt them.

They now face Melbourne who suffered a commanding loss to the Hawks ending a 3-game winning run. The Demons will want to start fast against the Lions at the Gabba, which teams this season have been able to do, with Brisbane coming out of their own sheds a little sluggish.

Brisbane’s first quarter total is at 24.5, a number they haven’t hit at the Gabba this season. The Lions might start slow but they will kick on and wear down the Demons, keeping Melbourne down in the dumps at the bottom of the table.

Dayne Zorko has lifted again in 2025 and is the key piece to the transition out of their own end for Brisbane. Expect the back to have plenty of the ball and claim 25+ disposals.

6 of 7 Brisbane victories have been by a margin of 1-39.
Brisbane have lost the first quarter in 3 of 4 matches at the Gabba this season.
Brisbane have kicked less than 24 points in the first quarter in 7 of 9 matches this season.
Dayne Zorko is averaging 32 disposals per game in his last 3 matches.

Head to Head

Brisbane won both matches in 2024 against the Demons, winning 4 of the last 5 with their only loss by 1-point at the MCG in 2023.

The winning margin for Brisbane in their last 4 victories has been by no more than 22 points.

3 of the last 4 matches between Brisbane and Melbourne has had the game total hit the under.

Brisbane Lions Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Brisbane’s match was supposed to be a shoo-in, sitting on top of the table playing the 17th-best team in the comp. With a 20-point lead in a low scoring game, the Lions looked like they were ready to kick on after the break, however, the Kangaroos kicked the first major needed to take back the lead three times in the fourth quarter, getting away with a 71-point draw.

Despite being on the top of the table, you wouldn’t say that Brisbane have been the most dominant team in the comp and have had to dig themselves out of unwilling situations plenty of times already this season, usually against much lesser competition.

The Lions have had a tendency to start poorly defensively, losing 50% of their first quarters, needing to claw their way back, which was often the case last season as well.

2025 Betting Trends

Brisbane Lions Team News

Jarrod Berry will miss the match after suffering a concussion last week. This could see the long awaited return of Keiden Coleman from a knee reconstruction after the half-back has performed well the last 2 weeks in the VFL on managed minutes.

Brisbane Lions Team List

B: D.Zorko, J.Payne, R.Lester

HB: N.Answerth, H.Andrews - C, D.Wilmot

C: J.Fletcher, H.McCluggage, Z.Bailey

HF: C.Cameron, E.Hipwood, W.Ashcroft

F: C.Rayner, L.Morris, C.Ah Chee

FOLL: O.McInerney, J.Dunkley, L.Neale

I/C (FROM): K.Lohmann, D.Robertson, L.Ashcroft, K.Coleman, T.Gallop, D.Gardiner, D.Fort

In: D.Robertson, K.Coleman, T.Gallop, C.McKenna

Out: J.Berry (Injured)

Melbourne Demons Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
3-2	2-3	2-3

After three wins against soft competition, Melbourne’s form haltered once again after running into the Hawks, who held them in check, not giving up gimmes inside the forward 50.

The Demons accuracy and ability to convert chances into points was questioned before their winning run and it was clear against the Hawks that if they cannot get clean uncontested ball into the forward 50, they will struggle to score on the run or from tougher angles, kicking just 7 goals from 23 shots at the target.

Melbourne are the 12th-worst side in the AFL in goals per inside 50, while ranking 15th in forward entries per game. A worrying combination.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
3-6	4-5	3-4	0-2

Melbourne Demons Team News

Jake Melksham is expected to return for the Demons after being managed last week against the Hawks.

Jacob van Rooyen or Matt Jeffersson are expected to make way for Melksham.

Melbourne Demons Team List

B: J.Bowey, S.May, C.Salem

HB: J.McVee, T.McDonald, T.Rivers

C: C.Windsor, C.Petracca, E.Langdon

HF: H.Sharp, B.Fritsch, T.Sparrow

F: C.Spargo, J.Melksham, K.Pickett

FOLL: M.Gawn - C, C.Oliver, H.Langford

I/C (FROM): D.Turner, B.Laurie, X.Lindsay, B.Howes, T.Fullarton, K.Chandler, A.Johnson

In: J.Melksham, B.Laurie, B.Howes, T.Fullarton, H.Petty, A.Johnson

Out: J.van Rooyen (Omitted), K.Tholstrup (Omitted), M.Jefferson (Omitted)

Brisbane Lions vs Melbourne Demons AFL 2025 Round 10 FAQ’s

How to watch Brisbane Lions vs Melbourne Demons AFL 2025 Round 10?

You can watch the Brisbane Lions vs Melbourne Demons AFL 2025 Round 10 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Brisbane Lions vs Melbourne Demons AFL 2025 Round 10?

To buy tickets to the Brisbane Lions vs Melbourne Demons AFL 2025 Round 10 game check the AFL website or the official Brisbane Lions site.

Verdict

Brisbane v Melbourne

Brisbane will get a 1-39 victory after starting slow at the Gabba as they have done this season, failing to score more than 24 points in the first quarter.

Dayne Zorko will be influential for the Lions with 25+ disposals.

Brisbane Lions

1-39 Winning Margin

$2.10 - 3 Units

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Brisbane Under 24.5

First QTR Team Total

$1.95 - 2 Units

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Dayne Zorko

25+ Disposals

$1.65 - 3 Units

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