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Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows Round 10 AFL Tips - Battle of the Birds to go to the wire

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Thu 15 May 2025 12:46

Ryan Tucker 15 May 2025

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Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows expert predictions for Saturday’s Round 10 AFL game
The game will be played at MCG, with the bounce at 1:20 PM (AEST)
Collingwood expected to win but narrow margin gives advantage to Adelaide on the +15.5 line.
Collingwood's defense vs. Adelaide's precise offense sets the stage for a tactical battle.
Game trends suggest a likely under-total finish with a close historical matchup.

Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows Round 10 AFL Tips

Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows, Round 10 2025 - Expert Prediction

The battle of the birds is once again predicted to go down to the wire with the Magpies tipped to win the game but the Crows expected to cover the two and half goal line. If you like Collingwood take them 1-39, if you like Adelaide take the +15.5 line.

Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows, Round 10 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Collingwood Magpies Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Collingwood Magpies Team News
Collingwood Magpies Team List
Adelaide Crows Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Adelaide Crows Team News
Adelaide Crows Team List
Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows AFL 2025 Round 10 FAQ’s

Collingwood have held a domination over Adelaide winning 9 straight games dating back to 2018. But a lot of these games have been extremely close with 5 of the last 8 and the last 4 games straight being decided by 5 points or less.

The Magpies are 5-3 ATS as the favourite so far this year with Adelaide 1-1 as the Underdog. Road Underdogs of less than 15.5 points have covered at a 50% rate this year across the AFL. Add to that the fact that 69% of games have finished with margins of 1-39 and the numbers are pointing us in the right direction.

I expect this game to be a battle of Collingwood’s top level defence rated +8.2 against Adelaide’s top level attack where they are rated a +10.2. The Crows are more accurate in front of goal and take more marks Inside 50 than their opponent. If they are able to stop the rebound entries from Collingwood it will go a long way to ensuring they are close at the end of the game to cover the line.

For Collingwood they will likely own the midfield battle and if they can set their screens around stoppages they will exploit the comparative weakness in a similar fashion to Port Adelaide last weekend.

Take Adelaide to Cover or Collingwood 1-39 depending on your persuasion. The Total is likely to go Under in any case. Steele Sidebottom had just 7 touches vs Freo but reached 25+ in 4 straight games prior, expect him to see a bit more of the ball in this one.

The margin of victory between these teams has been 5 or less in 4 straight games.
The Magpies have won 9 straight games vs Adelaide but the Crows have covered in 4 straight matchups.
The Game Total has gone Under in the last 3 games and in 6 of the last 8.
Steele Sidebottom is averaging 23.7 disposals per game.

Head to Head

Collingwood are 8-0 vs Adelaide since the start of the 2019 season with 3 of those wins coming at the MCG.

The Game Total has gone Under in 6 of 8 games including the last 3 straight. The winning margin between these teams is historically low with 5 of the last 8 games finishing with a 5pt or less margin.

Adelaide have covered as underdogs in the 4 most recent games.

Collingwood Magpies Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
4-1	4-1	4-1

Collingwood beat Fremantle by 14 points on Thursday night footy last week which puts them at 2nd spot on the ladder, just 2 points behind the leaders Brisbane and with the 2nd best percentage of any team in the league.

Through 9 games played the Pies have allowed just 635 pts to their opponents, 100 pts better than the 736 they allowed over the same amount of games to start the year in 2024. Collingwood have also played 7 games against teams that finished in the top 8 last year, one of the toughest schedules for a team so far in 2025.

Despite resting a host of players for the trip to Perth and a couple going down during the game, Collingwood stood tall to deliver the victory with Jamie Elliot kicking a game high 6 goals. Darcy Cameron finished with 28 hitouts, 3 tackles and 19 disposals taking on two tough opposing ruckmen.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
6-3	5-4	4-1	3-1

Collingwood Magpies Team News

Darcy Moore will be sidelined for a couple of weeks with a shoulder injury while Jordan De Goey still has yet to be given a timeline for a return. Brody Mihocek will need to pass a fitness test after straining his abdominal. Scott Pendlebury and Brayden Maynard will both return after being managed last week.

Collingwood Magpies Team List

B: B.Maynard - C, J.Howe, D.Houston

HB: H.Perryman, B.Frampton, I.Quaynor

C: P.Lipinski, N.Daicos, J.Crisp

HF: B.McCreery, B.Mihocek, B.Hill

F: J.Elliott, M.Cox, T.Membrey

FOLL: D.Cameron, S.Pendlebury, N.Long

I/C: J.Daicos, E.Allan, S.Sidebottom, W.Hoskin-Elliott, L.Sullivan

EMG: H.DeMattia, W.Parker, C.Dean

In: B.Maynard, B.Mihocek, S.Pendlebury

Out: D.Moore (Injured), L.Schultz (Injured), O.Markov (Omitted)

Adelaide Crows Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
3-2	2-3	1-4

The Crows held off a late surge from Port Adelaide in Showdown 57, winning in spectacular fashion 89-84 in front of over 53,000 screaming fans at Adelaide Oval.

Izak Rankine was the difference as he kicked two goals in 60 seconds in the 4th quarter to secure his team victory. He finished on 16 disposals including 3 clearances as well as 3 tackles for the game.

The Crows played more restrictive footy in the showdown with almost 50 fewer disposals than their season average, the majority coming from fewer handballs. Defensively they allowed Port to have 62 forward entries but worked hard to keep their efficiency below 47% which in turn kept the score manageable.

The Crows were completely outdone in clearances losing 56-29, the majority coming around stoppages, but Adelaide did well in cleaning up from there taking 20 intercept marks during the matchup.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
5-4	3-6	3-3	3-0

Adelaide Crows Team News

Lachlan Murphy has been added to the injury list with some problems around a hamstring which will see him miss this game.

Adelaide Crows Team List

B: J.Worrell, J.Butts, R.Laird

HB: W.Milera, M.Keane, M.Hinge

C: I.Cumming, J.Dawson - C, L.Nankervis

HF: B.Keays, R.Thilthorpe, S.Berry

F: D.Fogarty, T.Walker, A.Neal-Bullen

FOLL: R.O’Brien, I.Rankine, J.Soligo

I/C: J.Rachele, D.Curtin, J.Peatling, M.Michalanney, Z.Taylor

EMG: S.Draper, C.Burgess, B.Smith

No changes

Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows AFL 2025 Round 10 FAQ’s

How to watch Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows AFL 2025 Round 10?

You can watch the Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows AFL 2025 Round 10 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows AFL 2025 Round 10?

To buy tickets to the Collingwood Magpies vs Adelaide Crows AFL 2025 Round 10 game check the AFL website or the official Collingwood Magpies site.

Verdict

Collingwood v Adelaide

Adelaide +15.5

Line

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Collingwood 1-39

Winning Margin

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S Sidebottom 25+

Disposals

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Game Total

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