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Geelong Cats vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL Preliminary Final Tips - Geelong to march into another Grand Final
The 2025 AFL Preliminary Final sees the Geelong Cats favored to prevail over the Hawthorn Hawks and advance to the Grand Final. Geelong enters fresh after a dominant win over Brisbane and boasts a powerful scoring run, while Hawthorn has made history as the first 8th-placed team to beat the minor premiers but faces injury concerns. With a healthier squad and potent forward mix, Geelong’s consistency and depth are expected to secure them a win by 1-39 points, with key contributions from Ollie Dempsey and Jeremy Cameron.
- Geelong Cats vs Hawthorn Hawks expert predictions for Friday’s Preliminary Final AFL game
- The game will be played at MCG, with the bounce at 7:40 PM (AEST)
- Can the Hawks defy history and make the Grand Final from 8th position?
- Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet
Geelong Cats vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL Preliminary Final Tips
Geelong Cats vs Hawthorn Hawks, Preliminary Final 2025 - Expert Prediction
- Geelong Cats vs Hawthorn Hawks, Preliminary Final 2025 - Expert Prediction
- Head to Head
- Geelong Cats Form Analysis & Betting Trends
- Recent Form
- 2025 Betting Trends
- Geelong Cats Team News
- Geelong Cats Team List
- Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis & Betting Trends
- 2025 Betting Trends
- Hawthorn Hawks Team News
- Hawthorn Hawks Team List
- Geelong Cats vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Preliminary Final FAQ’s
Geelong will launch into the Grand Final with a convincing win over their modern day rivals, Hawthorn.
The Cats come into this fresh, advancing through after their dominant Qualifying Final win over Brisbane a fortnight ago, taking out last year’s premiers by 38 points. They had the week off and watched on as Hawthorn claimed a 34-point win over Adelaide in the Semi Final last weekend.
The Hawks created history by becoming the first 8th ranked side to defeat 1st (Adelaide) in AFL Finals. The Hawks have done it the hard way so far, travelling interstate for their two wins.
Hawthorn’s finals surge has been fuelled by manic pressure and Jack Gunston’s form (70 goals; 8 across two finals), with Jai Newcombe driving clearance momentum.
But the Hawks’ 2025 mark of 5–7 vs top-eight opponents and patchy clearance work are red flags against a Cats engine room that can control territory and repeat entries. If Geelong limit Hawthorn’s corridor transition and win contest at the source, the weight of entries should tell.
Expect Geelong’s forward mix to stretch the Hawks: Jeremy Cameron (85 for the season; 32 in his past eight) as the focal point, Ollie Dempsey a matchup headache after 25 disposals and three goals in the Qualifying Final, and smalls like Tyson Stengle and Brad Close hemming Hawthorn in with forward-50 pressure.
With 100+ points in seven straight, the Cats’ scoring power plus a healthier list profile gives them the edge late. Take Geelong in the 1-39 point range with Ollie Dempsey amongst the goals. Gunston can keep the Hawks in the game with another 3+
- Geelong have won their past four matches against Hawthorn
- The Cats have kicked 100+ points in their past seven matches
- Ollie Dempsey kicked two goals and had 25 disposals against Brisbane
- Jack Gunston has kicked 3+ goals in seven of his past eight
Head to Head
The Cats have claimed their past four matches against the Hawks, including the Round 6 fixture this season by seven points. Patrick Dangerfield and Shaun Mannagh each kicked three goals, while Jeremy Cameron and Ollie Dempsey chimed in with two. Jack Gunston and Mabior Chol each kicked three for the Hawks.
Bailey Smith had 28 disposals in that encounter, while Karl Amon (29) and Jai Newcombe (28) found plenty of it for the Hawks. Jeremy Cameron has kicked 18 goals from his past five matches against Hawthorn, while Chol has eight from his past three against the Cats.
Geelong Cats Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
| Last 5 W/L | Last 5 ATS | Last 5 O/U |
|---|---|---|
| 5-0 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
Geelong have won 13 of their past 15 matches and weren’t really tested in the last few rounds of the home and away season against inferior opposition before their blitz against Brisbane in the Qualifying Final. The win over the Lions made it five from six at the MCG this season while they are 6-4 against top eight sides in 2025.
The Cats have kicked over 100 points in their past seven matches and banged on 16.16.112 against Brisbane with Ollie Dempsey booting three and Jeremy Cameron adding another two to take his season total to 85 for the year, just 17 away from the magical ton. He has kicked 32 from his past eight, but his average against top eight sides this season is just over two goals per game with 21 from the 10 matches this season against sides in the eight.
Dempsey had 25 disposals against the Lions, while Geelong’s leading disposal getter for the season, Bailey Smith, had 22. He went 30+ in 11 of his past 14 prior to that. Max Holmes had 23 against the Lions and has had 25 or more in five of his past seven.
2025 Betting Trends
| ATS | Over/Under | 1-39 | 40+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15-9 | 14-10 | 9-5 | 9-1 |
Geelong Cats Team News
Rhys Stanley will be out to prove his fitness with the big man overcoming a hamstring injury. The Cats have just three players on the injury list and are in a healthy state.
Geelong Cats Team List
B: C.O’Sullivan, S.De Koning, J.Henry
HB: M.O’Connor, T.Stewart, Z.Guthrie
C: J.Bowes, M.Holmes, O.Dempsey
HF: B.Close, S.Mannagh, T.Stengle
F: S.Neale, J.Cameron, P.Dangerfield – C
FOLL: M.Blicavs, B.Smith, T.Atkins
I/C: L.Humphries, O.Mullin, G.Miers, J.Clark, J.Martin
EMG: R.Stanley, J.Bews, O.Henry
Unchanged
Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
| Last 5 W/L | Last 5 ATS | Last 5 O/U |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
Hawthorn headed into the finals having won eight of their last 11 home and away matches with those three losses all coming interstate in losses by less than 15 points. They claimed a stirring 19-point victory over the GWS Giants in the first week of the finals before knocking out Adelaide in straight sets. They return to the MCG, where they have won their past three, sitting at 7-3 for the season.
The Hawks are 5-7 against sides in the eight in 2025. Jai Newcombe has been Hawthorn’s best player in the Finals Series with 60 disposals in his two matches, while Jack Gunston has kicked eight, including a game-breaking five goal haul against Adelaide last weekend.
Gunston has kicked 70 majors for the season and has hit the 3+ goals in seven of his past eight. Josh Ward was Hawthorn’s highest disposal getter last weekend with 31 in what was a career-best display.
2025 Betting Trends
| ATS | Over/Under | 1-39 | 40+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15-10 | 10-15 | 13-7 | 4-1 |
Hawthorn Hawks Team News
Plenty of eyes on Jack Gunston and Jack Ginnivan this week with the pair reportedly battling hamstring soreness. They will be assessed at training. Calsher Dear missed with the same issue last weekend and is unlikely to be available. Mitch Lewis was subbed out in the third quarter after managing just four disposals. Henry Hustwaite and Cam McKenzie continue to produce big numbers at VFL level, while the veteran. The retiring veteran, Luke Breust, would have been a possible replacement for Ginnivan but seriously injured his knee at VFL level, putting an early end to his career.
Hawthorn Hawks Team List
B: J.Battle, T.Barrass, B.Hardwick
HB: J.Impey, J.Sicily – C, M.D’Ambrosio
C: K.Amon, J.Ward, D.Moore
HF: J.Weddle, M.Chol, N.Watson
F: J.Gunston, M.Lewis, C.Macdonald
FOLL: L.Meek, J.Newcombe, C.Nash
I/C: J.Scrimshaw, J.Worpel, S.Butler, C.Jiath, J.Ginnivan
EMG: J.Serong, C.Mackenzie, N.Reeves
Unchanged
Geelong Cats vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Preliminary Final FAQ’s
How to watch Geelong Cats vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Preliminary Final?
You can watch the Geelong Cats vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Preliminary Final game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.
How to buy tickets to Geelong Cats vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Preliminary Final?
To buy tickets to the Geelong Cats vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Preliminary Final game check the AFL website or the official Geelong Cats site.
Verdict
Geelong to have too much firepower and kick away late. Gunston and Dempsey among the goals for respective sides
Geelong 1-39
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