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Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions AFL Preliminary Final Tips - Lions to roar into the last Saturday in September

Adam Cusworth

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Last updated: Thu 18 Sep 2025 14:00

Adam Cusworth 18 Sep 2025

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Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions expert predictions for Saturday’s Preliminary Final AFL game
The game will be played at MCG, with the bounce at 5:15 PM (AEST)
Can the Magpies edge Brisbane in a clash between 2023 Grand Finalists?
Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet

Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions, Preliminary Final 2025 - Expert Prediction

Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions, Preliminary Final 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Collingwood Magpies Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Collingwood Magpies Team News
Collingwood Magpies Team List
Brisbane Lions Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Brisbane Lions Team News
Brisbane Lions Team List
Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Preliminary Final FAQ’s

Brisbane will advance through to the last Saturday in September with a win over Collingwood in what shapes as an epic encounter between the 2023 Grand Finalists.

The Lions surged into the Preliminary Final with a ruthless 53-point semi-final demolition of Gold Coast, a sharp rebound from their Qualifying Final loss to Geelong.

Collingwood handled Adelaide by 24 points in their Qualifying Final and enjoyed the week off. The Magpies headed into the finals with some concerns after dropping five of their last seven home and away matches, including a 27-point loss to Brisbane at the MCG.

But since a major wobble against Hawthorn in Round 22, they’ve rediscovered their defensive mojo, conceding just 63 points per game in their last three, with Darcy Moore’s providing an intercepting launchpad down back, while Jamie Elliott has finished off in the forward line.

The Pies will try to own the air with front-half intercepts and boundary-side stoppage to slow Brisbane’s corridor play.

But the numbers say the Lions will be winning more of the ball and if they can capitalise on their clearance/territory advantage, their multi-pronged attack should wear Collingwood down late.

Even without Lachie Neale, the Lions obliterated the Suns at clearance 43–26. With Josh Dunkley’s negating work, Hugh McCluggage’s two-way class and the surge from the Ashcroft’s brothers, Kai Lohmann and Logan Morris can finish off up forward. ,

Take the Lions in the head to head with Morris and Lohmann on for multiple goals.

Brisbane claimed the Round 21 encounter at the MCG by 27 points
The Lions have won five of their past six at the home of footy
Logan Morris booted six goals the last time the two sides met
Kai Lohmann has kicked 2+ goals in his past four matches

Head to Head

The two sides met at the MCG as recently as Round 21 and it was Brisbane that recorded a 27-point win. Logan Morris kicked six goals, while Lachie Neale, Hugh McCluggage, Will Ashcroft and Josh Dunkley all had 30+ disposals. Nick and Josh Daicos both had 29 disposals for Collingwood.

The Magpies claimed the Round 6 fixture at the GABBA and have claimed four of the past five between the two sides, including the 2023 Grand Final by four points as well as a one-point thriller at the MCG last season.

Nick Daicos has averaged 30 disposals from his past five against the Lions, while McCluggage and Dunkley have averaged 25.

Collingwood Magpies Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
2-3	2-3	0-5

Collingwood were the dominant side up until Round 17 and had a 14-2 record before losing five of seven and finishing on 16-7. But they regained their mojo with a 24 point win over Adelaide to kick off the finals series.

After their 64-point Round 22 defeat at the hands of Hawthorn, their structure and team defence has tightened right up, conceding an average of just 63 points in their past three outings.

Jamie Elliott booted four goals against Adelaide and has gone 2+ in his past three. He has 52 for the season. Jordan de Goey found form with 26 disposals in that match, while Nick Daicos had 24. He has had 25+ in nine of his past 11.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
12-12	7-17	11-5	6-2

Collingwood Magpies Team News

Plenty of eyes will be on Jeremy Howe at training with the defender looking to return from a groin injury. Bobby Hill is putting his hand up for selection, despite missing the last couple of months with personal reasons. Dan McStay was dropped for the Adelaide final for Mason Cox.

Collingwood Magpies Team List

B: B.Frampton, D.Moore – C, B.Maynard

HB: H.Perryman, I.Quaynor, D.Houston

C: J.Daicos, J.DeGoey, N.Long

HF: S.Sidebottom, T.Membrey, P.Lipinski

F: J.Elliott, M.Cox, L.Schultz

FOLL: D.Cameron, S.Pendlebury, N.Daicos

I/C: J.Crisp, R.Steele, B.McCreery, B.Mihocek, J.Howe

EMG: W.Parker, D.McStay, W.Hoskin-Elliott

IN – J.Howe

OUT – W.Parker (omitted)

Brisbane Lions Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
3-2	3-2	2-3

Brisbane headed into the finals series on the back of winning seven of nine matches with the last two of those coming against top eight sides, Fremantle and Hawthorn. Over the course of the season, they have an 8-5 record against sides in the top eight, including the 38 point loss to Geelong in the Qualifying Final as well as last week’s performance against Gold Coast. The loss to Geelong ended a run of five straight wins at the MCG for the Lions.

In the five rounds heading into finals, the Lions ranked in the top three in the competition for disposals, clearances and inside 50s. They led the disposals count against Geelong and Gold Coast and turned their -13 inside/50 differential from the Cats match-up to a +11 against the Suns.

Finishing off has been a slight issue this season, with the Lions ranking 13th for goals per inside 50 and kicked 11.23 Hawthorn in Round 24. Last weekend, it was 14.16 against the Suns.

Kai Lohmann and Zac Bailey each kicked three goals against Gold Coast, while Logan Morris snagged two. Lohmann has kicked 2+ in his past four matches, while Morris has 17 from his past six. Cam Rayner kicked three against Geelong and has 2+ in five of his past seven.

Hugh McCluggage bounced back from a quiet match against Geelong with 33 disposals, while four others had 25+, including Will Aschroft, who has hit that mark in eight of his past nine and Dayne Zorko (four of his past five).

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
13-12	9-16	13-5	4-2

Brisbane Lions Team News

No injuries for Brisbane to come out of the win over the Gold Coast Suns. A number of key players will not be available, including Lachie Neale, Jack Payne and Eric Hipwood, who are all done for the season.

Brisbane Lions Team List

B: D.Zorko, D.Gardiner, R.Lester

HB: D.Wilmot, H.Andrews – C, B.Starcevich

C: H.McCluggage, L.Ashcroft, J.Berry

HF: C.Cameron, T.Gallop, Z.Bailey

F: C.Rayner, L.Morris, C.Ah Chee

FOLL: D.Fort, J.Dunkley, W.Ashcroft

I/C: K.Lohmann, J.Fletcher, S.Marshall, B.Reville, O.McInerney

EMG: S.Day, J.Tunstill, D.Joyce

Unchanged

Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Preliminary Final FAQ’s

How to watch Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Preliminary Final?

You can watch the Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Preliminary Final game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Preliminary Final?

To buy tickets to the Collingwood Magpies vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Preliminary Final game check the AFL website or the official Collingwood Magpies site.