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Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions AFL Round 8 Tips - Lions to Drop a Bomb

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Thu 30 Apr 2026 12:25

Ryan Tucker 30 Apr 2026

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Brisbane Lions dominate recent form and stats; predicted to win easily over Essendon.
Essendon struggles defensively, while Brisbane’s offense averages 110.6 points.
Top bets: Brisbane over 113.5 pts and Charlie Cameron to score 3+ goals.
The game will be played at Marvel Stadium on Saturday, 2nd May, with the bounce at 12:35 PM (AEDT)

Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions

Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions, Round 8 2026 - Expert Prediction

Essendon have won once in 20 matches. Brisbane are the two-time premiers running at full tilt. This one gets ugly.

Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions, Round 8 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head Stats
Essendon Bombers Form Analysis
Brisbane Lions Form Analysis
Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions Team List & News

The Lions answered every question Chris Fagan put to them last week, burying Adelaide by 52 pts with a vintage third-quarter blitz that finished the game as a contest. Their attack rating of +9.9, defence of +5.4 and overall of +15.2 are the numbers of a side operating well clear of the competition's middle tier.

The model has them by 39.4 pts. The market line sits at 41.5. There is no value in the line or the margin, the value is in Brisbane performing like Brisbane.

The Bombers folded after half-time against Collingwood on Anzac Day and got peppered, conceding 77 pts in the second half as the Pies hit their highest score since 2018. Essendon are conceding 111.7 pts on the defensive end while their attack is generating just 81.4. Brisbane are averaging 110.6 pts over their last five games. This has all the ingredients of a blowout.

Brisbane generate 57.0 Inside 50s per game to Essendon's 51.0 on defence. They win clearances by +11.9 and dominate contested possession by +11.7 on the season. Essendon lose the clearance count by -5.4 per game. Every avenue of attack favours the Lions and a young Bombers side without Darcy Parish and Isaac Kako in the mix this week has no capacity to stem the tide.

Take Brisbane over 113.5 pts and the game to go Over 50.5 Scoring Shots. Charlie Cameron 3+ goals and the Same Game Multi of Logan Morris, Charlie Cameron and Zac Bailey all 2+ goals at $4.25 are the top player props.

Brisbane are averaging 110.6 pts over their last five games while Essendon are conceding 111.7 pts on defence, a collision course for the Lions to blow past 113.5.
Brisbane generated 57.0 Inside 50s per game to Essendon's 44.9 on attack, a +12.1 advantage that translates directly into Scoring Shots and goals.
Charlie Cameron booted four goals against Adelaide last week and has kicked 3+ goals in head-to-head games against the Bombers in recent seasons, with Kai Lohmann and Cameron both doing it in 2024.
Brisbane win clearances by +11.9 on the season and finished +15 in that stat against Adelaide last week. Essendon lose that count by -5.4 per game with Parish out of the side.

Head to Head Stats

Brisbane have the wood on Essendon in recent years, winning 7 of the last 10 meetings and holding a 8-6 advantage at Marvel Stadium. The Lions have won the last three clashes by 18 pts, 20 pts and 42 pts respectively. Brisbane have averaged 88 pts in those three games while holding Essendon to an average of 68 pts, a head-to-head trend that firmly supports the Lions hitting their scoring targets.

Essendon Bombers Form Analysis

Essendon were competitive for a half against Collingwood on Anzac Day before capitulating to lose by 77 pts. They held the Pies to 5.6 at the main break but were then outscored 15.11 to 6.2 after the interval as Collingwood's experience and class eventually wore them down.

Archie Roberts was prolific with 42 Disposals in defence and Zach Merrett fought hard, but the loss of Archer May to a knee injury and the general inability to score beyond individual efforts remains the core problem. Essendon are generating just 21.6 Shots per game and converting at 47.8%, numbers that won't cause Brisbane any concern.

Brisbane Lions Form Analysis

Brisbane were a different side last week, with Fagan's call for greater defensive intent answered emphatically. They finished +15 in clearances and +21 in Inside 50s against Adelaide, kicking seven consecutive goals in the third quarter to turn a competitive match into a 52 pt rout.

Lachie Neale was exceptional with 42 Disposals, Will Ashcroft added 36 and Charlie Cameron was at his livewire best with four goals. The Lions generate Points from Turnovers at 58.9 per game, the highest in the competition, and against a young Essendon side prone to errors under pressure, that number will climb again on Saturday.

Essendon Bombers vs Brisbane Lions Team List & News

Essendon Bombers Team News: Jade Gresham and Max Kondogiannis are in. Darcy Parish, Elijah Tsatas, Isaac Kako and Archer May are out.

Brisbane Lions Team News: Dayne Zorko and Cody Curtin come in. James Tunstill and Oscar Allen are out.

Essendon	POS	Brisbane Lions
J. Prior, B. McKay, A. McGrath	B	K. Coleman, H. Andrews, R. Lester
A. Roberts, Z. Reid, J. Farrow	HB	D. Wilmot, J. Fletcher, D. Zorko
X. Duursma, J. Caldwell, A. Day-Wicks	C	H. McCluggage, W. Ashcroft, L. Ashcroft
D. Sharp, N. Caddy, S. Robey	HF	C. Cameron, T. Gallop, Z. Bailey
J. Gresham, K. Langford, T. Edwards	F	S. Draper, C. Rayner, L. Morris
P. Wright, Z. Merrett, S. Durham	FOLL	D. Fort, J. Dunkley, L. Neale
N. Cox, M. Kondogiannis, S. El-Hawli, J. Nguyen, L. Blakiston	I/C	K. Lohmann, L. McCarthy, C. McKenna, C. Curtin, B. Reville

Verdict

Essendon Bombers v Brisbane Lions

Lions over 113.5

Team Total

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