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Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats AFL Tips - Cats good form at the G to continue
In the upcoming Round 7 match of AFL 2025, experts predict Geelong Cats will emerge victorious against Carlton Blues at the MCG. Despite Carlton's improved form against weaker teams recently, Geelong's strong defensive play, notably leading in 'Tackles Inside 50', poses a significant challenge for the Blues' attacking capabilities. Betting angles suggest a narrow victory margin for Geelong, with Bailey Smith expected to excel in disposals. Both team news and past performances suggest a strategic game with Geelong's consistent MCG success influencing predictions.
- Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats expert predictions for Sunday’s Round 7 AFL game
- The game will be played at MCG, with the bounce at 3:20 PM (AEST)
- Geelong Cats predicted to win by a narrow margin at the MCG.
- Carlton Blues face challenges against Geelong's top defense.
- Key player alert: Bailey Smith is expected to excel in disposals.
Ryan's top picks for Blues vs Cats this Sunday!
Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats, Round 7 2025 - Expert Prediction
Geelong will halt the momentum of the Blues on Sunday with another thriller expected at the MCG.
- Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats, Round 7 2025 - Expert Prediction
- Head to Head
- Carlton Blues Form Analysis & Betting Trends
- Recent Form
- 2025 Betting Trends
- Carlton Blues Team News
- Carlton Blues Team List
- Geelong Cats Form Analysis & Betting Trends
- Recent Form
- 2025 Betting Trends
- Geelong Cats Team News
- Geelong Cats Team List
- Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats AFL 2025 Round 7 FAQ’s
Whilst their form away from home has been questionable, the Cats have had success at the MCG with an almost 70% win record at the ground since 2019. Whilst Carlton seem to have rediscovered some scoring form over the past 2 weeks it has been against probably the two worst opponents in the AFL.
They now come up against a Cats defence that is allowing just 77 points per game to opponents this season. They rank 1st in the league in Tackles Inside 50 with 16.3 per game while also ranking 2nd in Pressure Acts.
Carlton have done well to turn their scoring woes around but they still rank 14th in Accuracy and their key forward Charlie Curnow kicked 4.3 in last week’s win. They are 3rd last in Goals/Inside 50 which will leave them vulnerable to being shut down by the Geelong defence in their attacking zone.
Take Geelong to win by a 1-39 margin with their defence playing a major role in keeping Carlton’s scoring at bay. The Blues team total is inflated thanks to their two big scores against the Eagles and Roos, take them Under in this one with the model pointing closer to 70 than 80 pts. Bailey Smith is ripping it up, take him to hit 30 touches in this one!
- Carlton are one of the least accurate teams in goal kicking this season even with their stats inflated by 2 large scores against bottom ranked opponents.
- Geelong rank 1st in Tackles Inside 50 and 2nd in Total Tackles and Pressure Acts.
- Carlton averaged just 62 points across their first 4 games of the season.
- Bailey Smith is averaging 29.6 disposals per game, has had 30+ twice this season and took 30 in his last matchup vs Carlton.
Head to Head
Carlton and Geelong split the difference last season winning 1 game each but it was Geelong that won this corresponding match on ANZAC weekend 118-105. The Cats hold a 4-3 advantage in the head to head since the start of the 2019 season.
The Over has hit in 3 straight games as well as 5 of the last 7 in the same time span. The 7 games are bookended with 40+ point margins while the 5 games in between have all finished 1-39.
The winning team has covered the line in all 7 matches played.
Carlton Blues Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
| Last 5 W/L | Last 5 ATS | Last 5 O/U |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
Carlton took their second straight win of the year last weekend, beating the Kangaroos 153-71 in a game that they dominated from start to finish. They lead by 31 pts at the first break and despite the margin being narrowed to just 20 at half time, the game was never in doubt as they kicked away in the 2nd half.
Zac Williams and Charlie Curnow both had 4 goals in the win with Curnow also kicking 3 behinds. George Hewett racked up 34 touches including 12 clearances and layed 9 tackles in a best on ground performance.
Carlton improved significantly on their efficiency Inside 50m pushing up the number to 59.4% against North Melbourne- This compares to their season average of 43.8% which has seen them lose multiple games due to not converting scoring chances.
2025 Betting Trends
| ATS | Over/Under | 1-39 | 40+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2-4 | 1-5 | 0-4 | 2-0 |
Carlton Blues Team News
Harry McKay has been included for the Blues though Jacob Weitering is carrying a niggling injury which could see him be a late scratching if not 100%.
Carlton Blues Team List
B: J.Silvagni, J.Weitering, A.Saad
HB: N.Haynes, M.McGovern, A.Cerra
C: S.Walsh, P.Cripps - C, O.Hollands
HF: M.Cottrell, H.McKay, L.Fogarty
F: J.Motlop, C.Curnow, C.Durdin
FOLL: T.De Koning, Z.Williams, G.Hewett
I/C (FROM): M.Carroll, B.Acres, W.White, E.Hollands, C.Lord, L.Young, L.Cowan, S.Docherty
Geelong Cats Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
| Last 5 W/L | Last 5 ATS | Last 5 O/U |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
Geelong extended their win streak to 3 on Easter Monday with a solid victory over Hawthorn in front of a massive crowd of almost 89 thousand at the G. The 86-79 win had people already calling the game a classic with Shaun Mannagh sealing the 7 point win for the Cats with under 3 minutes of time remaining.
Mannagh kicked 3.2 on the night while also having 4 clearances and making 7 tackles. Bailey Smith fed the ball well out the middle, leading all Geelong players with 28 disposals while Tom Atkins had 7 clearances.
Geelong were beaten in almost all statistical measures except Inside 50 efficiency and Stoppage Clearances. They led for all but 2 minutes of the game showing how dominant they can be even against top level opponents.
2025 Betting Trends
| ATS | Over/Under | 1-39 | 40+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-1 | 3-3 | 3-2 | 1-0 |
Geelong Cats Team News
Gryan Miers will miss some time through concussion protocol, Oisin Mullen is the likely replacement in the 22. Jake Kolodjashnij will return through the VFL this week and could be an inclusion over the next few weeks for the Cats.
Geelong Cats Team List
B: C.O’Sullivan, S.De Koning, M.Blicavs
HB: L.Humphries, T.Stewart, Z.Guthrie
C: J.Bowes, M.Holmes, O.Dempsey
HF: B.Close, S.Mannagh, T.Stengle
F: J.Cameron, P.Dangerfield - C, S.Neale
FOLL: R.Stanley, B.Smith, T.Atkins
I/C (FROM): M.O’Connor, O.Mullin, M.Knevitt, O.Henry, T.Clohesy, O.Wiltshire, M.Duncan, J.Clark
Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats AFL 2025 Round 7 FAQ’s
How to watch Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats AFL 2025 Round 7?
You can watch the Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats AFL 2025 Round 7 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.
How to buy tickets to Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats AFL 2025 Round 7?
To buy tickets to the Carlton Blues vs Geelong Cats AFL 2025 Round 7 game check the AFL website or the official Carlton Blues site.
Verdict
Take Geelong to win by a 1-39 margin with their defence playing a major role in keeping Carlton’s scoring at bay. The Blues team total is inflated thanks to their two big scores against the Eagles and Roos, take them Under in this one with the model pointing closer to 70 than 80 pts. Bailey Smith is ripping it up, take him to hit 30 touches in this one!
Geelong 1-39
Winning Margin
$2.10 - 3 Units
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Carlton Under 80.5
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