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Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns AFL Semi Final Tips - Suns to challenge wounded Lions at The Gabba

adam-cusworth
Adam Cusworth
Editor
Last updated: Thu 11 Sep 2025 09:45

The 2025 AFL Semi Final sets up a high-stakes Q-Clash as the Brisbane Lions host the Gold Coast Suns. While the Lions are weakened by key injuries, notably to Lachie Neale, the Suns arrive in form after a gutsy win over Fremantle. Expect a tense, low-scoring duel centered around midfield dominance. The Suns’ strong contested play led by Anderson and Rowell could exploit Brisbane’s depleted engine room, but the Lions' home record cannot be overlooked. Bet on total points under, the Suns with the start, and watch for standout performances from Anderson and Rayner.

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Adam Cusworth 11 Sep 2025
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  • Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns expert predictions for Saturday’s Semi Final AFL game
  • The game will be played at The Gabba, with the bounce at 7:35 PM (AEST)
  • Can Gold Coast’s fearless midfield exploit Brisbane’s injuries and create a Q-Clash Semi Final boilover?
  • Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet
Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns AFL Semi Final Tips

Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns, Semi Final 2025 - Expert Prediction

  • Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns, Semi Final 2025 - Expert Prediction
  • Head to Head 
  • Brisbane Lions Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Brisbane Lions Team News
  • Brisbane Lions Team List
  • Gold Coast Suns Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Gold Coast Suns Team News
  • Gold Coast Suns Team List

Gold Coast will push last year’s premiers, Brisbane, to the brink in a match up that brings the two sides up against one another in a cut-throat Semi Final Q-Clash. 

Gold Coast arrive with momentum, belief, and a fearless brand of football that stood tall in a one-point elimination final win over Fremantle. 

Brisbane, on the other hand, are bruised from a 38-point loss to Geelong, and critically, will be without Brownlow Medallist Lachie Neale, a huge blow to their midfield structure. 

The Lions' ball movement and clearance work were exposed last week, and without Neale, their ability to match the Suns' inside work led by Matt Rowell, Noah Anderson, and Jarrod Witts becomes a glaring concern.

Tactically, this match hinges on midfield ascendancy and pressure at ground level. The Suns bring a brutal contested-ball game and have shown they can score quickly from turnover, as evidenced by their seven-goal second quarter against Fremantle. 

With Witts dominating hit-outs and Rowell and Anderson combining for 66 disposals and 21 clearances last week, the Suns are well-equipped to target Brisbane’s depleted engine room. 

However, beware the wounded Lion. Their spread of midfielders can cover the loss of Neale and will look to get on top and exploit the Suns on spread. 

Brisbane went down to the Suns the last time the two sides met but have won the past seven at the GABBA and could very well bully their way into another Preliminary Final berth. 

Given both sides have plenty of midfield heat and the pressure stakes of a knockout final, this could be a low-scoring, arm-wrestle type of game, leaning towards the under on total points. 

Take the total points under and the Suns with the start. Brisbane’s Cam Rayner is fresh off three goals last week and is a possible game-breaker, while we can expect Noah Anderson to find plenty of footy for the Suns.  

  • Gold Coast were 66 point winners the last time the two sides met. 
  • Three of the past four Semi Finals have gone under the total points.
  • Cam Rayner has kicked 2+ goals in five of his past six matches.
  • Noah Anderson has had 30+ disposals in four of his past six matches and had 33 disposals the last time the two sides met

Head to Head 


Gold Coast were 66 point winners the last time the two sides met, which was as recently as Round 20 this season. Matt Rowell and Noah Anderson both had over 30 disposals, while Ben Long booted four goals. Cam Rayner kicked three for the Lions. 

Brisbane were 17-point winners at the GABBA earlier this season and have won the past seven between the two sides at the venue. Josh Dunkley, Hugh McCluggage and Dayne Zorko have all averaged over 25 disposals for Brisbane in their past five matches against the Suns. 

Brisbane Lions Form Analysis 


Brisbane headed into the finals eries on teh back of winning seven of nine matches wiht the last two of those coming against Fremantle and Hawthorn. Over the course of the season, they have a 7-5 record against sides in the top eight. 

In the five rounds heading into finals, the Lions ranked in the top three in the competition for disposals, clearances and inside 50s. They led the disposals count against the Cats but conceeded 60 inside 50s to 47 in the 11.8 to 16.16 scoreline. 

Finishing off has been a slight issue, with the Lions ranking 13th for goals per inside 50 and kicked 11.23 Hawthorn in Round 24 before improving their accuracy from fewer opportunities against the Cats. 

Cam Rayner benefitted from a couple of lucky calls last weekend and booted three goals, while Kai Lohmann snagged two. Rayner has kicked 2+ in five of his past six.  Four Lions players had 30 disposals or more against Geelong and they were Dayne Zorko, Lachie Neale, Josh Dunkley and Will Ashcroft. Ashcroft has gone 25+ in seven of his past eight and has had 30+ in three of his past five.  

Brisbane Lions Team News


Lachie Neale’s season is done after the two-time Brownlow Medal winner re-injured his troublesome calf. Fellow premiership player, Eric Hipwood, won’t be back until next season after scans revealed a partial tear to his ACL in his knee. Bruce Reville and James Tunstill are among a couple that could come in. 

Brisbane Lions Team List


B: D.Zorko, D.Gardiner, R.Lester
HB: D.Wilmot, H.Andrews - C, B.Starcevich
C: H.McCluggage, L.Ashcroft, J.Berry
HF: C.Cameron, T.Gallop, Z.Bailey
F: C.Rayner, L.Morris, C.Ah Chee
FOLL: D.Fort, J.Dunkley, W.Ashcroft

I/C: K.Lohmann, J.Fletcher, S.Marshall, B.Reville, O.McInerney
EMG: S.Day, J.Tunstill, D.Joyce

In: - B.Reville, O.McInerney
Out: - S.Day (Omitted), L.Neale (Injured)

Gold Coast Suns Form Analysis 


It took until the final home and away match of the season for the Suns to stitch up a finals spot after they dropped games to GWS and Port Adelaide before rebounding against the Bombers. They took that winning form into finals with their win over Fremantle and now have a 5-6 win-loss record against sides in the eight in 2025.  

The All-Australian duo of Matt Rowell (34 disposals) and Noah Anderson (32) were instrumental in the win over the Dockers. Anderson has had 30+ disposals in four of his past six, while Rowell has reached that mark in six of his past nine. 
The Suns ranked 4th for clearances in the last 10 rounds of the home and away season and 3rd for inside 50s. They were beaten in these two measures by the Dockers but were efficient when heading in with Bailey Humphrey setting up the win with three goals. Ben King failed to register a goal for the first time this season but finished runner-up in the Coleman Medal with 69 goals, which included 22 from his five matches leading up to finals. 

Gold Coast Suns Team News


Gold Coast are unlikely to make too many changes. David Swallow started as the sub last week before coming on and producing his match-winning cameo. It would be a tough call to leave the veteran out. Will Graham is edging closer to a return from injury, while Nick Holman is among another that will be itching to find his way into the 23. 

Gold Coast Suns Team List


B: W.Powell, B.Uwland, S.Collins
HB: J.Noble, M.Andrew, D.Rioli
C: L.Weller, M.Rowell, B.Fiorini
HF: T.Miller, E.Read, B.Humphrey
F: B.Long, B.King, J.Farrar
FOLL: J.Witts, A.Davies, N.Anderson - C

I/C: S.Flanders, B.Ainsworth, D.Swallow, C.Budarick, J.Jeffrey
EMG: N.Moyle, J.Rogers, O.Adams

No changes

Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns AFL 2025 Semi Final FAQ’s

How to watch Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns AFL 2025 Semi Final?

You can watch the Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns AFL 2025 Semi Final game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns AFL 2025 Semi Final?

To buy tickets to the Brisbane Lions vs Gold Coast Suns AFL 2025 Semi Final game check the AFL website or the official Brisbane Lions site.

Verdict

Gold Coast to go close with Anderson and Rainer looming large for respective sides in a tight match
Best Bet1: Gold Coast Suns +9.5 Handicap -9.5 $1.90 at dabble - 1 Unit
Best Bet2: Total Points Under Total Points O/U 168.5 $1.88 at dabble - 1 Unit
Best Bet3: Noah Anderson To Have 30+ disposals $2.10 at dabble - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Cam Rayner To Score 2+ goals $1.78 at dabble - 1 Unit
Gold Coast Suns +9.5
Handicap -9.5
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