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Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL Semi Final Tips - Hawks to send the top ranked Crows out in straight sets

adam-cusworth
Adam Cusworth
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Last updated: Thu 11 Sep 2025 09:43

The 2025 AFL Semi Final sees Hawthorn Hawks set to challenge the Adelaide Crows at Adelaide Oval. Although Adelaide had a dominant home-and-away season and a strong home record, their recent loss to Collingwood and the absence of Izak Rankine leave them vulnerable. Hawthorn carry momentum, a good recent history against the Crows at this venue, and influential form from Jack Gunston and Jack Ginnivan. The expert prediction is for Hawthorn to cause an upset, with key action points being to watch team updates and monitor player fitness as the match approaches.

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Adam Cusworth 11 Sep 2025
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  • Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks expert predictions for Friday’s Round 1 AFL game
  • The game will be played at Adelaide Oval, with the bounce at 7:40 PM (AEST)
  • Can the Hawks defy history in sudden-death Semi Final?
  • Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet
Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL Semi Final Tips

Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks, Semi Final 2025 - Expert Prediction

  • Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks, Semi Final 2025 - Expert Prediction
  • Head to Head 
  • Adelaide Crows Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Adelaide Crows Team News
  • Adelaide Crows Team List
  • Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Hawthorn Hawks Team News
  • Hawthorn Hawks Team List

Hawthorn can defy history and chalk up a Semi Final win over the Adelaide Crows on Friday night. 

The Hawks finished 8th at the end of the home and away season but advanced through to a Semi Final showdown with a 19 point win over GWS in Week 1 of the AFL Finals Series. 

Despite finishing on top of the ladder at the end of the home and away season, Adelaide failed to fire against Collingwood in the Qualifying Final, going down by 24 points. 

There have been only four occasions that we have seen a 1 v 8 match-up since the the finals was expanded to eight sides in 1994, which have all resulted in wins to the higher ranked side. 

But history counts for little in September. Hawthorn come into this clash with momentum, belief, and a recent record that suggests they match up well against the Crows — particularly at the Adelaide Oval. 

With a tight backline and a well-drilled system under Sam Mitchell, the Hawks are more than capable of turning this into a genuine contest. The Hawks will look to control the tempo and apply high forward pressure to disrupt the Crows ball movement from the back half. 

If they can deny Adelaide access to corridor chains and contain their rebound, the Hawks are well-placed to cause problems against a Crows outfit that have been unconvincing in the absence of their matchwinner, Izak Rankine.

Take the Hawks in the head to head with Jack Gunston amongst the goals again and Jack Ginnivan to continue his impressive late season form with 20+ disposals and 2+ goals.

  • Hawthorn have won five of their past seven matches against Adelaide at the Adelaide Oval
  • Jack Gunston has kicked 3+ goals in six of his past seven
  • Jack Ginnivan has kicked five goals in his past two matches 
  • Ginnivan has had 20+ disposals in four of his past five games.

Head to Head 


The two sides met as recently as Round 21 at the Adelaide Oval. Hzwthorn were fast out of the blocks and led by eight points at three-quarter time before going down by 14. Riley Thilthorpe booted four goals, while Taylor Walker and Izak Rankine both kicked three. Rankine was influential in the last quarter of that match and will be sorely missed this time around. 

Hawthorn took out the Round 14 clash by three points in a low scoring game at Launceston in Tasmania. The Hawks have won three of the past four between the two sides and were 66-point winners at the Adelaide Oval last season. They have won five of seven against the Crows at the venue.

Adelaide Crows Form Analysis 


Adelaide won 12 of their last 13 home and away matches before their Qualifying Final loss to Collingwood, taking their 2025 record against top eight sides in 2025 to 5. The loss was their first at the Adelaide Oval in 11 matches and they are 12-2 at the venue this season. 

In the 10-week lead up to the finals, Adelaide ranked 4th for scoring and 2nd for fewest points conceded. They gave up 24 scoring shots to Collingwood in the 8.7 to 11.13 scoreline. Luke Pedlar booted three goals, while Taylor Walker and Riley Thilthorpe snagged two each. Thilthorpe has kicked 24 from his past eight matches, hitting the 2+ in all but one of those. 

Adelaide are not a high-disposal side, ranking just 14th over the course of the season with Jordan Dawson and Rory Laird both averaging 24. Laird had 24 last weekend, while Dawson was down on his usual output with 19. Josh Worrell was the Crows leading disposal getter with 26. 

Adelaide Crows Team News


The Crows are unlikely to make too many changes to the side, despite going down last weekend. Josh Rachele will be out to prove his fitness in his bid to return from a knee injury. Izak Rankine still has two matches of a suspension to serve.

Adelaide Crows Team List


B: J.Worrell, M.Keane, R.Laird
HB: W.Milera, N.Murray, M.Hinge
C: I.Cumming, J.Dawson - C, D.Curtin
HF: B.Keays, R.Thilthorpe, A.Neal-Bullen
F: Z.Taylor, T.Walker, D.Fogarty
FOLL: R.O’Brien, J.Peatling, J.Soligo

I/C: J.Rachele, L.Pedlar, S.Berry, M.Michalanney, B.Smith
EMG: L.Murphy, J.Butts, B.Dowling

In: - J.Rachele
Out: - H.Bond (Omitted)

Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis 


Hawthorn headed into the finals having won eight of their last 11 home and away matches with those three losses all coming interstate in losses by less than 15 points. Their win against GWS snapped a five match losing streak in matches outside of Victoria and Tasmania this season. 

They are 2-5 outside of those two states, while they are 4-7 against sides in the eight in 2025. Jai Newcombe was Hawthorn’s best player against the Giants with 32 disposals, while Connor Macdonald, Jack Gunston and Jack Ginnivan kicked three goals apiece. 

Ginnivan has kicked five goals in his past two matches and has had 20+ disposals in four of his past five. Jack Gunston has kicked 65 majors for the season and has hit the 3+ goals in six of his past seven. 

Hawthorn Hawks Team News


Calsher Dear will miss with a hamstring injury and Mitch Lewis is the obvious replacement after booting four goals at VFL level last weekend. Max Ramsden is another option. Cam Mckenzie and Henry Hustwaite all played starring roles in the Hawks come from behind win for Box Hill and are other options.

Hawthorn Hawks Team List


B: J.Battle, T.Barrass, B.Hardwick
HB: J.Impey, J.Sicily - C, M.D’Ambrosio
C: K.Amon, J.Ward, D.Moore
HF: C.Macdonald, M.Chol, N.Watson
F: J.Gunston, M.Lewis, J.Ginnivan
FOLL: L.Meek, J.Newcombe, C.Nash

I/C: J.Scrimshaw, J.Worpel, S.Butler, J.Weddle, C.Jiath
EMG: L.Breust, C.Mackenzie, N.Reeves

In: - M.Lewis
Out: - C.Dear (Injured)

Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Semi Final FAQ’s

How to watch Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Semi Final?

You can watch the Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Semi Final game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Semi Final?

To buy tickets to the Adelaide Crows vs Hawthorn Hawks AFL 2025 Round 1 game check the AFL website or the official Adelaide Crows site.

Verdict

Hawks to send Adelaide out in straight sets with Gunston and Ginnivan influential
Best Bet1: Hawthorn Match Winner $2.02 at dabble - 1 Unit
Best Bet2: Jack Gunston To Score 3+ goals $2.65 at dabble - 1 Unit
Best Bet3: Jack Ginnivan To Score 2+ goals $2.08 at dabble - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Jack Ginnivan To Have 20+ disposals $1.85 at dabble - 1 Unit
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