ATP Madrid Futures Tips & Predictions - Sinner to prevail, but value in second & third quarters

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Tue 21 Apr 2026 03:43

Andrew Hendrie 21 Apr 2026

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ATP Madrid 2026 Futures betting tips & predictions
Sinner solid value to win the title without dropping a set
Value with former semi-finalists Cerundolo & Lehecka in wide open 2nd & 3rd quarters
Watch & bet on every tennis match live in Madrid online at Unibet

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Francisco Cerundolo (Photo by Getty Images)

The 2026 Madrid Masters gets underway from April 22 and while Jannik Sinner is the overwhelming and almost unbackable favourite, there's still some value to be found in the depleted draw.

ATP Madrid Masters Draw
Sinner to cruise
Lehecka Lurking
Cerundolo back for more Madrid magic

With Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic absent, along with last year's runner-up Jack Draper, there's a distinctly different looking field in the Spanish capital for this edition of the Madrid Masters.

ATP Madrid Masters Draw

Defending champion Casper Ruud is also in poor form, while Lorenzo Musetti - who was an absolute beast on clay this time last year - is still struggling in his return from injury. Alexander Zverev is turning into a perennial semi-finalist in big tournaments and the rest of the top 10 doesn't looking like making an impact. Sinner probably takes the title without dropping a single set, which I don't mind at odds of $3.75.

Sinner to cruise

Incredibly, 27 of Sinner's last 28 completed match wins at Masters 1000 level have been in straight sets. He's already swept the three Masters 1000 tournaments in 2026 at Indian Wells, Miami and Monte Carlo - and with Alcaraz absent, there's really nobody that can realistically stop him or even take a set.

But, let's head to the second and third quarters, where it's ridiculously open and value to be found.

Lehecka Lurking

My best bet for this section is Jiri Lehecka.

The Czech made the semi-finals in Madrid two years ago and importantly, looks injury-free at the moment. Lehecka made the final of Miami with wins over the likes of Taylor Fritz and Arthur Fils - the latter whom he could face in the quarter-finals here. Fils is the favourite in this section due to his recent great form, which includes a title last weekend in Barcelona, but I can't take him at odds of $2.50, with Lehecka's price of $9.00 much more appealing.

The dangerous floater for me in this section is Raphael Collignon at $41. I think the Belgian will make the second week of a slam or the last eight or better at a Masters 1000 before the year is done and what better time than the present? Collignon reached the third round in Miami, only losing to Tommy Paul in a deciding set tiebreak, while he was last seen winning the strong Monza Challenger without dropping a single set. Admittedly, Collignon would likely need to beat the likes of Berrettini, Shelton, Etcheverry, Fils and Musetti to make the semis, but there's always the possibility the draw collapses and I don't mind dabbling with a tiny stake for this one.

Cerundolo back for more Madrid magic

Moving onto the third quarter and the two names that stand out are Fran Cerundolo and Daniel Altmaier.

Cerundolo obviously the main pick. The Argentine is one of the world's best clay courters and he loves the Madrid conditions, making the semi-finals last year. With this draw, lightning could easily strike twice. The other top seeds in this quarter include Auger-Aliassime, Bublik, Darderi, Ruud and Davidovich Fokina - they're all in pretty average form at the moment. Recent results for Cerundolo include quarter-finals in Miami and Munich, where it took Zverev to beat him on both occasions. Think this is a great opportunity for Cerundolo to make it back-to-back semi-finals.

Altmaier is straight out of left field and has been in terrible form for much of the year, but he's an excellent clay courter (remember, he owns a win over Sinner at Roland Garros) and someone that good can't be kept down for too long. Altmaier has a solid 5-3 record in Madrid, making the quarter-finals in 2023 and third round in 2024. He didn't look too bad in Munich last week and really should have forced a deciding set with the resurgent Alex Molcan to make a quarter-final. In a wide open quarter, a small stake on Altmaier appeals.

Verdict

ATP Madrid

You can see our best Futures bets for ATP Madrid 2026 below.

Yes

Tournament To Be Won Without Dropping A Set

$3.75 - 3 Units

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Jiri Lehecka

2nd Quarter Winner

$9.00 - 1 Unit

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Francisco Cerundolo

3rd Quarter Winner

$6.50 - 1 Unit

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