Alex de Minaur vs Arthur Fils Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Top seed Demon to cover in Rotterdam opener

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Mon 09 Feb 2026 23:44

Andrew Hendrie 09 Feb 2026

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Alex de Minaur vs Arthur Fils predictions for Tuesday's ATP Rotterdam R1 match
De Minaur has a 68-8 record vs players outside the top 40 since the start of 2024
Fils playing just his third tournament since May 2025 after back injury
The match is scheduled to start around 5.30am AEDT on Wednesday February 11

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Alex de Minaur (Photo by Getty Images)

Alex de Minaur vs Arthur Fils Tips, Prediction & Live Stream

It's shaping as an entertaining opening round showdown in Rotterdam as top seed Alex de Minaur comes up against the returning Arthur Fils on Tuesday night.

Alex de Minaur vs Arthur Fils Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
De Minaur vs Fils Stats & Trends
De Minaur vs Fils Head To Head
Alex de Minaur Form Analysis
Arthur Fils Form Analysis
De Minaur vs Fils Live Stream

De Minaur has finished runner-up in Rotterdam over the last two years, where it took his top-ranked rivals Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner to stop him. With the 'Big 2' absent in Rotterdam this year, De Minaur is the top seed and considered the favourite to go one step further. The Aussie once again played well at his home slam to start the year, reaching the quarter-finals, while he has an intimidating record against lower-ranked players over the last couple of years. Meanwhile, Fils is continuing his comeback from a back injury after playing just his second tournament since Roland Garros last week in Montpellier, where he made the quarter-finals before falling to Felix Auger-Aliassime.

Fils was well on his way towards the top 10 before his injury surfaced last year. At his best, he's a genuine shot at the upset here - he has beaten de Minaur before. However, right now, the Demon is probably the player you least want to face when trying to work your way back from serious injury. I don't think Fils has the match practice under his belt to deal with de Minaur's relentless consistency yet, so backing the two-time Rotterdam runner-up to cover a -3.5 games line in victory.

De Minaur vs Fils Stats & Trends

De Minaur has won six of his last seven matches
De Minaur is 68-8 vs players ranked outside the top 40 since the start of 2024
De Minaur has covered a -3.5 games line in 25 of his last 28 completed wins over players outside the top 40
De Minaur has won eight of his last 10 matches in Rotterdam
De Minaur has covered a -3.5 games line in seven of those eight Rotterdam wins
Fils is playing just his third tournament since May 2025
Fils has lost six of his last eight matches vs top 10 players
Fils has failed to cover a +3.5 games line in his last three matches vs top 10 players

De Minaur vs Fils Head To Head

Level at 1-1, with both matches coming in 2024. Fils won their first meeting in Barcelona before de Minaur returned serve at Wimbledon, where he infamously injured his hip on match point and was forced to withdraw ahead of the quarter-finals.

Year	Tournament	Surface	Winner	Score
2024	Wimbledon	Grass	Alex de Minaur	6–2, 6–4, 4–6, 6–3
2024	Barcelona	Clay	Arthur Fils	7–5, 6–2

Alex de Minaur Form Analysis

2026 Record: 6-2
ATP Rotterdam Record: 13-5
Current Ranking: No. 8
Career-High Ranking: No. 6 (2024)

De Minaur has firmly established himself as a top 10 player over the last two years, repeatedly beating those ranked below him and finding himself going deep into the second week of slams on a regular basis.

However, clearing that next hurdle of cracking the top five and being a genuine challenger for major titles is proving problematic.

There's a feeling the Aussie might have reached his ceiling - he's gone 0-19 combined vs Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, while he's also 0-6 in Grand Slam quarter-finals.

De Minaur once again blitzed lower-ranked opposition to reach the Australian Open quarter-finals last month, but it was the same old story in the quarter-finals, where he was outclassed 7-5 6-2 6-1 by Alcaraz. The Aussie knows he needs to play more aggressive to have a chance, but that style of play doesn't come natural for him.

“Of course, for me to take that next step, I've got to be comfortable in playing that sort of way for the whole match, and that's what it takes, to take it to the next level, especially against these types of guys," De Minaur said after that loss to Alcaraz in Melbourne.

With Alcaraz and Sinner deciding to bypass Rotterdam this year, the door is open for De Minaur to win the 500-level title after finishing runner-up to the pair in the last two years.

Arthur Fils Form Analysis

2026 Record: 2-1
ATP Rotterdam Record: 1-1
Current Ranking: No. 42
Career-High Ranking: No. 14 (April 2025)

Fils was well on his way to the top 10 last year, reaching a career-high mark of No. 14 before his back injury surfaced at Roland Garros.

The 21-year-old attempted a comeback at the Canada Masters in August, but he aggravated the problem and subsequently shut down his year.

It was cruel twist of fate for Fils, who swiftly became one of the tour's most exciting players to watch. He recently spoke of the mental battle that came with his first long injury layoff.

“It was very mental, to be honest,” Fils told the official ATP website.

“It was more being on the sidelines than the pain itself. At one point I stopped watching tennis completely because I just wanted to be there. When you can’t be there and you’re watching the matches, it’s more painful. You feel like you’re missing something every week. I found that a real challenge, and a little lonely at times.”

Fils made his comeback in Montpellier last week and it was a successful return, with the Frenchman making the quarter-finals with wins over Valentin Royer and Ugo Blanchet before going down to top seed and eventual champion Felix Auger-Aliassime.

De Minaur vs Fils Live Stream

Watch and bet on Alex de Minaur vs Arthur Fils live tennis from Rotterdam.

You can watch and bet on the match live at Unibet > Tennis > ATP Rotterdam with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.

Geo-restrictions apply, you'll need a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours to gain access. 18+ terms and conditions apply.

Verdict

Alex De Minaur v Arthur Fils

De Minaur has an incredible record vs lower-ranked players and he's backed to cover against Fils, who is still working his way back from a long-term injury.