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Penrith Panthers vs Newcastle Knights NRL Tips - KNIGHTmare season to continue for Newcastle

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Thu 22 May 2025 13:49

Andrew Hendrie 22 May 2025

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Penrith Panthers vs Newcastle Knights expert predictions for Saturday's NRL Round 12 game
Kick off is at 5.30pm AEST at Carrington Park in Bathurst
Back another low-scoring game involving the Knights' poor attack
Understrength Panthers can cover against lowly Newcastle
Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bets

Penrith Panthers vs Newcastle Knights NRL Tips

Penrith Panthers vs Newcastle Knights, NRL Round 12 - Expert Prediction

A heavily depleted Panthers outfit can pile more misery on the embattled Knights as Bathurst's Carrington Park plays host to the first of two games on Saturday.

Penrith Panthers vs Newcastle Knights, NRL Round 12 - Expert Prediction
Head To Head
Penrith Panthers Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Penrith Panthers Team News
Penrith Panthers Team List
Newcastle Knights Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Newcastle Knights Team News
Newcastle Knights Team List

Honestly, this could be an absolute bludger of a game. Penrith, unsurprisingly, have been hit hard by Origin, while the Knights have been in atrocious form all season and now must compete without their most dangerous player in Kalyn Ponga, who was selected for Queensland.

I just can't back the Knights - their attack is basically non-existent and they refuse to throw Jackson Hastings into the halves, instead opting for a new pairing of Tyson Gamble and Jack Cogger, with Fletcher Sharpe reverting to fullback. Newcastle have seen Under 44.5 total points in all but one of their games this season, so another low-scoring affair looks on the cards here.

Penrith have always done a solid job of navigating the Origin period, and although they've obviously been struggling throughout 2025, they couldn't have asked for a better opponent for this round. Will back the Panthers to cover a -4.5 line, while Thomas Jenkins is a country boy and will be determined to celebrate a rare game out West with a four-pointer.

Knights have lost seven of their last eight games
Knights have lost six of those games by 5+ points
Panthers are unbeaten in three of their last four games
Under 44.5 points has landed in nine of Knights' 10 games this season
Under 44.5 points has landed in the last four meetings between the teams
Thomas Jenkins has scored three tries in his last two games, while the Panthers' left winger has scored a try in seven of their last eight home outings

Head To Head

The Panthers have won the last seven meetings between the teams, including 26-18 and 22-14 victories last season. Newcastle's last win over Penrith came back in 2018.

Penrith Panthers Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
2-3	2-3	2-3

It's obviously been a tough season to date for the Panthers, who are understandably showing the effects of winning four premierships on the trot.

After toppling the Sharks in Vegas to start the season, the Panthers went on a five-game losing streak and were anchored to the bottom of the ladder for a period.

However, Penrith have started to show signs of life over the last month - they've crushed the Roosters 40-12 and the Broncos 32-8, but Ivan Cleary would have been disappointed on how they failed to finish the job against the Cowboys a fortnight ago, letting slip of a comfortable 30-18 lead in the last 10 minutes to ultimately end with a draw.

Fresh from a bye last week, the Panthers know this is a valuable two points during the Origin period against the most out-of-form team in the competition.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
4-6	5-5	1-4	2-2

Penrith Panthers Team News

The Panthers will be forced to field a weakened line-up here, with Dylan Edwards, Brian To’o, Nathan Cleary, Liam Martin, Isaah Yeo, Isaiah Papali’i and Luke Garner all unavailable due to Origin or injury.

Daine Laurie, Casey McLean, Matt Eisenhuth, Luke Sommerton, Preston Riki and Jack Cole all come into the squad.

Penrith Panthers Team List

1. Daine Laurie

2. Paul Alamoti

3. Izack Tago

4. Casey McLean

5. Thomas Jenkins

6. Blaize Talagi

7. Brad Schneider

8. Moses Leota

9. Mitch Kenny

10. Matt Eisenhuth

11. TBA

12. Liam Henry

13. Lindsay Smith

Interchange

14. Luke Sommerton

15. Preston Riki

16. Luron Patea

17. Jack Cole

Reserves

18. Trent Toelau

19. Austin Dias

20. Jesse McLean

21. Harrison Hassett

22. Billy Phillips

Newcastle Knights Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
1-4	1-4	1-4

It's been a horror season for the Knights and it's tough to see how they turn things around, with the club likely to be battling to avoid the wooden spoon.

Newcastle have lost seven of their last eight games and their struggles in attack are well-documented, despite possessing some lethal spine members in Kalyn Ponga and Fletcher Sharpe.

The Knights have been restricted to 10 points or less in half of their 10 games this season, while they've also lost their last four home matches.

Last week was another tough watch, with the Knights only managing one late try in a 28-6 shellacking at the hands of fellow battlers Parramatta.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
2-8	1-9	1-1	2-6

Newcastle Knights Team News

It's a new halves combination of Tyson Gamble and Jack Cogger for the Knights here, with Fletcher Sharpe reverting to fullback to cover Maroons representative Kalyn Ponga.

Kyle McCarthy comes into the centres for his second NRL game, while Leo Thompson returns and Jack Hetherington drops out.

Newcastle Knights Team List

1. Fletcher Sharpe

2. James Schiller

3. Dane Gagai

4. Kyle McCarthy

5. Fletcher Hunt

6. Tyson Gamble

7. Jack Cogger

8. Tyson Frizell

9. Phoenix Crossland

10. Leo Thompson

11. Dylan Lucas

12. Kai Pearce-Paul

13. Adam Elliott

Interchange

14. Jayden Brailey

15. Mathew Croker

16. Brodie Jones

17. Thomas Cant

Reserves

18. Jack Hetherington

19. Paul Bryan

20. Matthew Arthur

21. Connor Votano

22. Jackson Hastings

Verdict

Penrith Panthers v Newcastle Knights

The Knights are in shambles - back the Panthers to cover a small -4.5 line and Under 44.5 total points, with Tom Jenkins crossing for a meat pie.

Under 44.5

Total Points

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