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New Zealand Warriors vs Canberra Raiders NRL Round 12 Tips - Home field the difference

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Fri 23 May 2025 11:10

Jeremy Darke 23 May 2025

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New Zealand Warriors vs Canberra Raiders expert predictions for Sunday’s Round 12 NRL game
Kick off is at 4:05 PM (AEST) at Go Media Stadium
Predictive model shows possible draw; Warriors favored due to unbeaten home record.
Both teams missing key forwards: Hudson Young (Canberra) & Mitch Barnett (NZ).

A draw on the cards....

New Zealand Warriors vs Canberra Raiders, Round 12 2025 - Expert Prediction

The predictive modelling has this match going down to the wire and being decided by less than one point so backing the draw is the big play. The Warriors haven’t lost at home this season so some pennies on New Zealand will be thrown down as well.

New Zealand Warriors vs Canberra Raiders, Round 12 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
New Zealand Warriors Form Analysis & Betting Trends
New Zealand Warriors Team News
New Zealand Warriors Team List
Canberra Raiders Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Canberra Raiders Team News
Canberra Raiders Team List
New Zealand Warriors vs Canberra Raiders NRL 2025 Round 12 FAQ’s

Two teams that have surprised with their early season form lock horns and it will be a clash of the Raiders top-two attack versus the Warrior top-three defence. Like I mentioned, this game is set to be a grind and the only reason the Warriors get the nod is that they are unbeaten at home and have beaten Canberra in 3 of their last 4 trips over the Pacific.

Both teams will be without their most influential forwards, Hudson Young (Canberra) and Mitch Barnett (New Zealand) which will have an effect on this game, but it is too hard to call who is more important. Time will tell.

With Hudson Young out, expect Zac Hosking to see even more ball close to the attacking line and is tipped to get his fourth try in 5 matches.

The Warriors have won all 4 games they have played in New Zealand this season.
The Warriors are averaging just 13 points against when playing in New Zealand this season.
The Warriors allow the least amount of tackles inside their 20m.
Zac Hosking has scored in 3 of last 4 games for Canberra Raiders.

Head to Head

The Raiders flew away from Vegas ss big winners against the Warriors in the season opener, dominating the match 30-8.

In 2024 the chocolates were split in two low scoring matches, and 18-10 victory to New Zealand in Christchurch, while the Raiders got up 20-18 in Canberra.

The last 12 matches between the pair are also a dead heat 6-6. Nine of the last 12 matches have gone under the game total.

New Zealand Warriors Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
5-0	4-1	1-4

The Warriors continue to impress in 2025 with another scruffy victory against the Dolphins in Round 11, beating the north-east Brisbane club 16-12. Despite the low score, New Zealand were in control carrying a 10-nil lead into the break and extending it to 16-0 before two late tries by the Dolphins.

The win was the Warriors fifth in a row, giving them an unexpected 8-2 record after their first 10 games of the season.

New Zealand have been growing into their halves with Luke Metcalf becoming the player many thought he would be. The Warriors are ranked 4th in possession and 5th in territory this season with an efficiency inside 20m that is also top five in the league.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
7-3	4-6	6-0	2-2

New Zealand Warriors Team News

Mitch Barnett will represent the Blues, while his front row partner James Fisher-Harris will be suspended for the match. Jackson Ford and Bunty Afoa will slot back into the side and replace the duo after missing last week’s match.

New Zealand Warriors Team List

1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad

2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak

3. Adam Pompey

4. Kurt Capewell

5. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck

6. Chanel Harris-Tavita

7. Luke Metcalf

8. Jackson Ford

9. Wayde Egan

10. Bunty Afoa

11. Leka Halasima

12. Marata Niukore

13. Erin Clark

Interchange

14. Te Maire Martin

15. Jacob Laban

16. Demitric Vaimauga

17. Tanner Stowers-Smith

Reserves

18. Tom Ale

20. Sam Healey

21. Tanah Boyd

22. Ali Leiataua

23. Taine Tuaupiki

Canberra Raiders Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
4-1	4-1	3-2

Much like their opponents, the Raiders continue to get wins and are really putting away their lesser opponents in the process. Another 16-point victory for Canberra against the Gold Coast in Round 11, has them sitting third on the ladder heading into this round with 8 wins and three losses.

Canberra are the second best attacking team in the NRL in relation to raw points scored (28.9/G) and they are doing it without blowing out any of the key statistical categories. The only real concern for Ricky Stuart’s men is that they may be relying on their attack too much with their defence ranked 10th, giving up an average of 23.1 points per game to their opposition.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
8-3	7-4	5-2	3-1

Canberra Raiders Team News

Hudson Young is the only out for the Raiders, representing NSW. Noah Martin will make his debut on the bench with Simi Sasagi replacing Young in the back row.

Canberra Raiders Team List

1. Kaeo Weekes

2. Savelio Tamale

3. Matthew Timoko

4. Seb Kris

5. Xavier Savage

6. Ethan Strange

7. Jamal Fogarty

8. Corey Horsburgh

9. Tom Starling

10. Joe Tapine

11. Simi Sasagi

12. Zac Hosking

13. Morgan Smithies

Interchange

14. Owen Pattie

15. Noah Martin

16. Josh Papali'i

17. Ata Mariota

Reserves

18. Jed Stuart

19. Trey Mooney

20. Danny Levi

21. Pasami Saulo

22. Chevy Stewart

New Zealand Warriors vs Canberra Raiders NRL 2025 Round 12 FAQ’s

How to watch New Zealand Warriors vs Canberra Raiders NRL 2025 Round 12?

You can watch the New Zealand Warriors vs Canberra Raiders NRL 2025 Round 12 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to New Zealand Warriors vs Canberra Raiders NRL 2025 Round 12?

To buy tickets to the New Zealand Warriors vs Canberra Raiders NRL 2025 Round 12 game check the NRL website or the official New Zealand Warriors site.

Verdict

New Zealand Warriors v Canberra Raiders

This match will be a tight, low scoring battle that has the potential to end in a draw, but the Warriors get the tip due to home field advantage.

Zac Hosking is a big chance to cross for the Raiders.

Draw

Result after 80mins

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New Zealand Warriors

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