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NRL Round 11 Tips & Betting Preview | Home Underdogs + Overs Watch

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Tue 13 May 2025 14:07

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Jeremy Darke 13 May 2025

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Tale of two halves in the NRL Round 10 Recap
Time to back the Underdogs and the Overs in Round 11
NRL Round 11 Tips and Predictions

Behind the Bets with Ryan & Jez

NRL Round 11 Betting Tips: Home Underdogs, Overs Edges & Latrell’s X-Factor

We’re flipping the script in Round 11 — with underdogs surging and totals tightening, this week’s Behind the Bets is all about value-hunting ahead of a tricky weekend.

Ryan and Jez leave the Round 10 slump behind and dig deep into every matchup, armed with stats, model projections, and hard-won lessons from last week’s chaos.

This week’s betting preview leans heavily into the forward-looking matchups, spotlighting key games like Storm vs Sharks, Cowboys vs Manly, and the enigmatic clash between Souths and the Tigers.

The boys highlight why overs may be due (only 44% hit rate in 2025), the impact of Latrell Mitchell on South Sydney, and why home underdogs are covering the line at a 62% rate. If you're backing favourites blindly, it’s time to rethink. Plus, smart in-play strategies and model-vs-market comparisons help you make sharper decisions as Round 11 kicks off.

Watch the full episode of Behind the Bets on YouTube for expert Round 11 NRL tips, betting breakdowns, and predictive insights. Then head to bets.com.au for detailed previews and value picks across every game.