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North Queensland Cowboys vs Melbourne Storm NRL Tips - Storm's spine proves the difference in Townsville
In the NRL Round 18 showdown, Melbourne Storm is predicted to defeat the North Queensland Cowboys, despite both teams facing player shortages due to the State of Origin. The Storm, with pivotal players Jahrome Hughes and Ryan Papenhuyzen, is on a four-game winning streak and aims to secure its fifth consecutive victory. The Cowboys have been inconsistent, struggling throughout the season, and face the challenge of overcoming a dominant Storm side.
- North Queensland Cowboys vs Melbourne Storm expert predictions for Saturday's NRL Round 18 game
- Kick off is at 7.35pm AEST at Queensland Country Bank Stadium
- Storm on track for fifth straight win, covering a -9.5 line in the process
- Jahrome Hughes tipped to add to the two tries he scored vs Cowboys in R14
- Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bets
North Queensland Cowboys vs Melbourne Storm NRL Tips
North Queensland Cowboys vs Melbourne Storm, NRL Round 18 - Expert Prediction
Jahrome Hughes and Ryan Papenhuyzen will prove the difference as the Storm topple the Cowboys in a match where both sides are depleted due to Origin.
Cowboys vs. Storm Rd18 Cheat Sheat
- North Queensland Cowboys vs Melbourne Storm, NRL Round 18 - Expert Prediction
- Head To Head
- North Queensland Cowboys Form Analysis & Betting Trends
- Recent Form
- 2025 Betting Trends
- North Queensland Cowboys Team News
- North Queensland Cowboys Team List
- Melbourne Storm Form Analysis & Betting Trends
- Recent Form
- 2025 Betting Trends
- Melbourne Storm Team News
- Melbourne Storm Team List
North Queensland have experienced a wildly inconsistent season - their roller-coaster ride has seen them climb as high as sixth on the ladder, but also drop as low as 16th. With just two wins Round 8, the Cowboys are currently 12th and have a mountain to climb if they are to feature in the finals this year.
Those two wins also came against the Tigers and Titans, so the Cowboys obviously face a big step up in class here, even if the Storm are missing their Origin stars (North Queensland also lose four of their key players here). While Melbourne are without the likes of Cameron Munster and Harry Grant, they still have key spine members in Hughes and Papenhuyzen, so I like the visitors to cover a -9.5 line in victory.
I'm going against recent trends and H2H stats and backing Under 48.5 total points, with so much attacking talent unavailable for both teams, while I'm expecting Hughes to continue his brilliant form and lead his side to another two points, scoring his fifth try in his last four appearances good value.
- Storm have won their last four games
- Cowboys have lost three of their last four games
- Cowboys have only beaten Titans & Tigers since Round 8
- Storm have covered a -9.5 line in four of their last five wins
- Cowboys' last four defeats have come by 18+ points
- Jahrome Hughes has scored four tries in his last three games
- Hughes scored a double vs Cowboys earlier this year
Head To Head
The Cowboys had won three straight games in this matchup before the Storm registered a dominant 38-14 victory back in Round 14 earlier this season.
North Queensland Cowboys Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
| Last 5 W/L | Last 5 ATS | Last 5 O/U |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
Overall, it's been a disappointing season for the Cowboys - they've showcased they can beat any side on their day, but their consistency is a real issue, along with a poor defence.
Weak defence and inconsistency doesn't lend itself to a spot in the top eight, so it's not really a surprise to see the Cowboys languishing in 12th spot, especially when the only teams they've beaten since the end of April are the Titans and Tigers.
North Queensland are coming off a win last weekend, but it wasn't pretty to say the last, overcoming the last-placed Titans in rainy conditions 30-24.
2025 Betting Trends
| ATS | Over/Under | 1-12 | 13+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7-8 | 10-5 | 5-2 | 1-6 |
North Queensland Cowboys Team News
Tom Dearden, Reuben Cotter, Jeremiah Nanai and Reece Robson are all out on Origin duty.
Tom Duffy has been named to play halfback for his first game since Round 2, while Jordan McLean and John Bateman return from injuries.
Harrison Edwards moves to hooker, Kai O'Donnell starts in the back row and Temple Kalepo makes his NRL debut off the bench.
North Queensland Cowboys Team List
1. Scott Drinkwater
2. Robert Derby
3. Jaxon Purdue
4. Zac Laybutt
5. Murray Taulagi
6. Jake Clifford
7. Thomas Duffy
8. Jordan McLean
9. Harrison Edwards
10. Griffin Neame
11. John Bateman
12. Kai O’Donnell
13. Sam McIntyre
Interchange
14. Temple Kalepo
15. Thomas Mikaele
16. Kaiden Lahrs
17. Coen Hess
Reserves
18. Braidon Burns
19. Marly Bitungane
20. Jamal Shibasaki
21. Jaxson Paulo
22. Mason Kira
Melbourne Storm Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
| Last 5 W/L | Last 5 ATS | Last 5 O/U |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
The Storm are making their move as they look towards peaking at the back-end of the season.
Indeed, Craig Bellmay's side are currently riding a four-game winning streak, which is their longest of the year.
Currently in third spot on the ladder, Melbourne are just two points behind Canberra at the top of the ladder - and with their superior points difference of +196, they are still strongly positioned to secure the minor premiership.
After a scrappy golden point dispatch of the Rabbitohs, the Storm were much more polished at home, avenging their defeat to Cronulla from earlier this season to prevail comfortably, 30-6.
2025 Betting Trends
| ATS | Over/Under | 1-12 | 13+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7-7 | 9-5 | 4-3 | 6-1 |
Melbourne Storm Team News
Cameron Munster, Harry Grant, Xavier Coates, Trent Loiero and Stefano Utoikamanu are all away in Origin camp, while Sua Faalogo is out with a hamstring injury.
Kane Bradley comes onto the wing and Joe Chan has been named at centre. Tyran Wishart partners Jahrome Hughes in the halves, Bronson Garlick comes in at hooker and Jonah Pezet joins the bench, alongside Lazarus Vaalepu and Ativalu Lisati.
Melbourne Storm Team List
1. Ryan Papenhuyzen
2. Grant Anderson
3. Joe Chan
4. Nick Meaney
5. Kane Bradley
6. Tyran Wishart
7. Jahrome Hughes
8. Tui Kamikamica
9. Bronson Garlick
10. Josh King
11. Shawn Blore
12. Eliesa Katoa
13. Nelson Asofa-Solomona
Interchange
14. Jonah Pezet
15. Alec MacDonald
16. Lazarus Vaalepu
17. Ativalu Lisati
Reserves
18. Josiah Pahulu
19. Coby Williamson
20. Gabriel Satrick
21. Keagan Russell-Smith
22. Siulagi Pio
Verdict
The Storm are backed to cover and win their fifth game on the bounce against an unconvincing Cowboys side who have struggled over the last two months.
Jahrome Hughes is at the peak of his powers and can cross for a try in his fourth consecutive game.
Storm -9.5
Line
$1.85 - 3 Units
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Under 48.5
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