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Manly Sea Eagles vs South Sydney Rabbitohs NRL Tips - Manly cover again at 4 Pines

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Fri 04 Jul 2025 10:18

Andrew Hendrie 04 Jul 2025

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Manly Sea Eagles vs South Sydney Rabbitohs expert predictions for Sunday's NRL Round 18 game
Kick off is at 4.05pm AEST at 4 Pines Park
Sea Eagles have covered a -9.5 line in all of their wins this season
Rabbitohs on a five-game losing streak, leaking 171 points in the process
Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bets

Manly Sea Eagles vs South Sydney Rabbitohs NRL Tips

Manly Sea Eagles vs South Sydney Rabbitohs, NRL Round 18 - Expert Prediction

Neither of these teams inspire much confidence at the moment, but the Sea Eagles are tentatively backed to cover and secure their first win over Souths at Brookie since 2019.

Sea Eagles vs. Rabbitohs Rd18 Cheat Sheet

Manly Sea Eagles vs South Sydney Rabbitohs, NRL Round 18 - Expert Prediction
Head To Head
Manly Sea Eagles Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Manly Sea Eagles Team News
Manly Sea Eagles Team List
South Sydney Rabbitohs Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
South Sydney Rabbitohs Team News
South Sydney Rabbitohs Team List

Look, Manly have been pretty terrible for the bulk of the season or since DCE announced he would be leaving the club at the end of the year. However, when they do win, they win well. Indeed, here's the winning margin for all seven of their victories in 2025: 30, 28, 14, 16, 18, 28 & 18. As you can see, they're comfortably covering the -9.5 line set for this clash every time they secure the two points this season. That's the first play for this clash.

I'm also going to back the Overs here. Souths were trending under for most of the season, but over the last month and their current five-game losing streak, they've seen total points of 66, 48, 42, 49 & 78. Their defence has opened up (conceding 171 points over their last five games) and having fallen to 16th on the ladder, you get the feeling the Bunnies are cooked for 2025, so the total points line of 46.5 appeals. Manly are equipped with immense firepower in their backline and the fact DCE and the Trbojevic brothers don't have Origin duty mean the hosts should find plenty of points on Sunday afternoon. Tolutau Koula is always a crowd favourite at Brookvale and can cross for another four-pointer.

Rabbitohs are on a five-game losing streak
Sea Eagles have won by 14+ points in all seven of their wins this season
Rabbitohs are coming off a 50-28 thrashing vs Dolphins last week
Sea Eagles have won their last two home games
Rabbitohs have seen Over 46.5 points in four of their last five games
Two of the last four meetings have produced 60+ points
Tolutau Koula has scored at least one try in his last six games at 4 Pines Park

Head To Head

Manly haven't beaten Souths at 4 Pines Park since 2019. These teams split their two meetings in 2024 at one win apiece, with the Sea Eagles prevailing 36-24 in Vegas to launch the year before the Rabbitohs responded with a 14-0 victory in Round 16.

Manly Sea Eagles Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
2-3	2-3	1-4

It's been a pretty dire season for Manly, but the reality is they're just one win outside the top eight and still well within the hunt for a spot in the finals.

In saying that, the Sea Eagles have a very tough run coming up, facing the Storm, Bulldogs, Roosters and Raiders, so suffice to say, this is an absolute must-win clash on Sunday.

Manly were involved in one of the worst halves of footy in recent memory last week against the Tigers, finally managing to break the deadlock in the 39th minute before some improvements in the second stanza saw them run away 28-10 winners.

The shift of Tommy Turbo into the centres was solid - he was far more involved and ran for 136 metres with seven tackle busts. In saying that, Lehi Hopoate had a shocker under the high ball at fullback and will be hoping for a much-improved performance here.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
6-9	6-9	0-3	7-5

Manly Sea Eagles Team News

Manly are fairly settled at the moment, with Tommy Talau coming onto the bench in place of the injured Nathan Brown (bicep) the only change from last week.

Manly Sea Eagles Team List

1. Lehi Hopoate

2. Jason Saab

3. Tolutau Koula

4. Tom Trbojevic

5. Reuben Garrick

6. Luke Brooks

7. Daly Cherry-Evans

8. Matthew Lodge

9. Jazz Tevaga

10. Siosiua Taukeiaho

11. Corey Waddell

12. Ben Trbojevic

13. Jake Trbojevic

Interchange

14. Jake Simpkin

15. Tommy Talau

16. Ethan Bullemor

17. Toafofoa Sipley

Reserves

18. Michael Chee Kam

19. Clayton Faulalo

20. Caleb Navale

21. Joey Walsh

22. Gordon Chan Kum Tong

South Sydney Rabbitohs Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
0-5	2-3	4-1

After an encouraging start to the season, the Rabbitohs have fallen away meekly and now find themselves in second-last spot on the ladder, only above the embattled Titans.

To be fair, the Bunnies have suffered their fair share of injuries all season, but most teams deal with various hurdles throughout the course of a year and Souths simply haven't been up to the task.

Wayne Bennett's side finally got a full-strength backline to choose from last week, but they ultimately dished up one of the worst performances of the year in a crushing 50-28 loss to the Dolphins.

Cody Walker is seemingly injured every game, Jack Wighton hasn't proved to be worth the money, the signing of Lewis Dodd from the Super League hasn't paid off at all and Latrell remains inconsistent - it appears the club is in need of a big overhaul and Bennett will have his work cut to deliver them finals footy during his tenure.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
9-7	4-12	6-5	0-5

South Sydney Rabbitohs Team News

Cody Walker is out injured again and Latrell Mitchell is away in NSW camp, so Alex Johnston shifts to fullback and Jack Wighton goes into the halves. Isaiah Tass moves to the wing and Euan Aitken starts in the centres.

Liam Le Blanc and Lewis Dodd are the new faces on the bench, while Brandon Smith has been named in the reserves as he edges closer to making his comeback from an ACL injury and Souths debut.

South Sydney Rabbitohs Team List

1. Alex Johnston

2. Isaiah Tass

3. Euan Aitken

4. Campbell Graham

5. Tyrone Munro

6. Jack Wighton

7. Jamie Humphreys

8. Tevita Tatola

9. Siliva Havili

10. Keaon Koloamatangi

11. Jai Arrow

12. Tallis Duncan

13. Lachlan Hubner

Interchange

14. Peter Mamouzelos

15. Liam Le Blanc

16. Davvy Moale

17. Lewis Dodd

Reserves

18. Ryan Gray

19. Sean Keppie

20. Jacob Host

21. Cody Walker

22. Brandon Smith

Verdict

Manly Sea Eagles v South Sydney Rabbitohs

Manly have covered the -9.5 line in all of their wins this season, so they are tipped to prevail comfortably against an embattled Souths side on a five-game losing run.

Also backing Over 46.5 points with Tolutau Koula continuing his brilliant try-scoring run at Brookie.

Sea Eagles -9.5

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Over 46.5

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