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Canberra Raiders vs St George Illawarra Dragons NRL Tips - Raiders 1-12 the value play again

Andrew Hendrie

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Last updated: Thu 03 Jul 2025 10:13

Andrew Hendrie 03 Jul 2025

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Canberra Raiders vs St George Illawarra Dragons expert predictions for Saturday's NRL Round 18 game
Kick off is at 5.30pm AEST at GIO Stadium
Raiders have seen a 1-12 margin in 18 of their last 23 wins
Matt Timoko backed to cross in a match that features Under 49.5 total points
Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bets

Canberra Raiders vs St George Illawarra Dragons, NRL Round 18 - Expert Prediction

The Dragons haven't won in the nation's capital since 2015 - and that won't change on Saturday as the Raiders win seven games on the trot for the first time in nine years.

Raiders vs. Dragons Rd18 Cheat Sheet

Canberra Raiders vs St George Illawarra Dragons, NRL Round 18 - Expert Prediction
Head To Head
Canberra Raiders Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Canberra Raiders Team News
Canberra Raiders Team List
St George Illawarra Dragons Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
St George Illawarra Dragons Team News
St George Illawarra Dragons Team List

What a season it's been for the Green Machine and with two byes remaining and a kind draw, they harbour realistic ambitions of securing the minor premiership. Indeed, Canberra enter Round 18 on top of the competition ladder, winning two more games than any other team, while they've only lost to the second-placed Bulldogs since Round 4 - and even in that game, they were leading 20-0 at half-time.

With all due respect to the Dragons, they surely won't be the team to snap the Raiders' blistering winning run. St George Illawarra started the season in somewhat promising fashion, but they simply aren't close to being a top eight team and they've suffered some key outs for this game due to Origin and injuries. On the flip side, Raiders 1-12 is a sustained trend and has been a hugely profitable bet over the last couple of seasons, so I can't stop now.

Eighteen of Canberra's last 23 wins have come by a 1-12 margin, while recent meetings between these sides have also been extremely close. In fact, the Raiders' last five wins over the Dragons have been by 10 points or less. Throw in Under 49.5 total points and a try to Matty Timoko as the other main plays for Saturday night's showdown at GIO Stadium.

Raiders have won 11 of their last 12 games
Raiders have won their last four meetings vs Dragons
Raiders have seen a 1-12 margin in 18 of their last 23 wins
Raiders' last five wins over Dragons have been by 10 points or less
Raiders have seen Under 49.5 points in four of their last five games
Seven of the last nine meetings have seen Under 49.5 points
Dragons have lost five of their seven away games this season
Matt Timoko has scored three tries in his last three games vs Dragons & is due a meat pie heading into this clash

Head To Head

As mentioned, the Dragons haven't beaten Canberra at GIO Stadium since 2015. The Raiders have won the last four encounters overall, including a thrilling 26-24 comeback in Round 27 last year at Kogarah, with the Green Machine winning the second-half 16-0.

Canberra Raiders Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
5-0	3-2	2-3

Ricky Stuart's side continue to grind away, rarely blowing teams off the park, but at the same time consistently coming out on top, which showcases the immense belief they have as a team.

Canberra bring a six-match winning streak into this clash, but they've been forced to hold on late in their last two victories against the lowly Tigers and Knights on the road.

On each occasion, the Raiders surged out to 16-0 half-time leads and ultimately steeled themselves to register a pair of four-point victories, 16-12 over the Tigers and 22-18 against Newcastle.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
11-5	9-7	9-2	4-1

Canberra Raiders Team News

Hudson Young and Josh Papalii are in Origin camp for Game 3, so Trey Mooney comes into the side on the bench and Simi Sasagi starts in the second row.

Canberra Raiders Team List

1. Kaeo Weekes

2. Jed Stuart

3. Matthew Timoko

4. Sebastian Kris

5. Xavier Savage

6. Ethan Strange

7. Jamal Fogarty

8. Corey Horsburgh

9. Tom Starling

10. Joseph Tapine

11. Simi Sasagi

12. Zac Hosking

13. Morgan Smithies

Interchange

14. Owen Pattie

15. Noah Martin

16. Trey Mooney

17. Ata Mariota

Reserves

18. Chevy Stewart

19. Pasami Saulo

20. Joseph Roddy

21. Danny Levi

22. Ethan Sanders

St George Illawarra Dragons Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
3-2	3-2	4-1

It's been another poor season for the Dragons, but such is the nature of this year's competition, they are only one win outside of the top eight as they come into this fixture with three wins from their last five.

Two of those victories were over the Knights and Eels, so not much can be read into the Dragons' current form, but they have shown they can beat the best teams in the competition this season, registering wins over the likes of Melbourne and Brisbane.

But in reality, the Dragons are lacking that leading playmaker to steer their side around the paddock - Kyle Flanagan always gives 100%, but he just isn't the answer as a premier No. 7 in the NRL.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
7-7	9-5	3-6	3-2

St George Illawarra Dragons Team News

Sione Finau, Tyrell Sloan, Raymond Faitala-Mariner, Loko Pasifiki Tonga, Hame Sele and Michael Molo all come into the team after featuring in NSW Cup last week, with Hamish Stewart (concussion), Luciano Leilua (quad), Nathan Lawson (shoulder) and Toby Couchman (shoulder) out injured, while Valentine Holmes is away on Origin duty for Queensland.

St George Illawarra Dragons Team List

1. Clinton Gutherson

2. Sione Finau

3. Moses Suli

4. Corey Allan

5. Tyrell Sloan

6. Lyhkan King-Togia

7. Kyle Flanagan

8. Emre Guler

9. Damien Cook

10. David Klemmer

11. Raymond Faitala-Mariner

12. Jaydn Su’A

13. Jack de Belin

Interchange

14. Jacob Liddle

15. Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga

16. Hame Sele

17. Michael Molo

Reserves

18. Blake Lawrie

19. Viliami Fifita

20. Nicholas Tsougranis

21. Lachlan Ilias

22. Jacob Halangahu

Verdict

Canberra Raiders v St George Illawarra Dragons

The Raiders are tipped to grind out another 1-12 win in a game producing Under 49.5 total points.

Matt Timoko can cross for his fourth try in as many games against the Dragons.

Under 49.5

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Raiders 1-12

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