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Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers Tips - Storm get their Grand Final revenge

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Tue 18 Mar 2025 10:28

Jeremy Darke 18 Mar 2025

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Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers expert predictions for Thursday’s Round 3 NRL game
Kick off is at 8:00 PM at AAMI Park
Dylan Edwards absent, increasing Melbourne's winning margin.
Ryan Papenhuyzen expected to score his 32nd try at AAMI Park.

Jez's unexpected tips for Thursday's NRL match between the Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers.

Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers, Round 3 2025 - Expert Prediction

Melbourne will hand Penrith their second consecutive loss, covering the 9.5 points as the favourite.

Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers, Round 3 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Melbourne Storm Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Melbourne Storm Team News
Melbourne Storm Team List
Penrith Panthers Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Penrith Panthers Team News
Penrith Panthers Team List
Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers NRL 2025 Round 3 FAQ’s

With full discretion, this is tough call but our models based on points scored and points conceded over the 2024 and 2025 season has the Storm beating Penrith by 7.8 points. With Dylan Edwards out of the Panthers 17, that margin increases by at least 2 points.

Melbourne slaughtered the Eels in their opener, but this prediction is more based around how the Panthers have started this season, more specifically leaking 54 points in the opening two games of the year.

The game total is too high considering the past between these two teams and taking the under while covering a large line is also against the grain. However, the script will be that Melbourne get out to a lead and protect it with pure game management from Jahrome Hughes.

Ryan Papenhuyzen has an unheard of record at scoring tries at AAMI Park and got a dubbel in the Storm’s opener. Paps will be on the attack and will slice through at some stage.

Penrith have failed to cover the line in all three regular season games when starting as 9.5 point underdogs or more since the 2019 season.
Melbourne won 13 of 14 games last season when starting as 9.5-point favourites or shorter, covering the line in the last 4 matches.
7 of the last 9 matches between Melbourne and Penrith have had a game total of less than 45.5 points.
Ryan Papenhuyzen has 31 tries in 36 games at AAMI Park

Head to Head

The Storm and Panthers faced each other 3 times in 2024, with Melbourne winning both games in the home and away season, with the Panthers winning the big one and claiming the Premiership.

In the last 10 matches between the two sides, Penrith hold a slight 6-4 lead, dating back to the 2021 season.

Melbourne Storm Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
1-0	1-0	1-0

Melbourne enjoyed the week off with the Round 2 bye and are fully-fit to take on the Premiers in the Grand Final replay.

Melbourne showed their intent in their opening round match against the Eels, leading at halftime 46-6, before taking their foot off the gas in the second half to get a 56-18 victory.

If the result had more to do with how bad the Eels are in 2025 or how good the Storm are, it is likely both. Melbourne took 66% of the territory in the first half and turned it into 8 linebreaks, 966 run metres and 234 post contact metres.

Jahrome Hughes and Cam Munster controlled it all with 5 linebreak assists and 4 try assists between them in the match.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
1-0	1-0	0-0	1-0

Melbourne Storm Team News

Grant Andersson comes in on the wing replacing Will Warbrick.

Nelson Asofa-Solomona has been named in the reserves for the time being, Lazarus Vaalepu holds his spot on the interchange bench.

Melbourne Storm Team List

1. Ryan Papenhuyzen

2. Grant Anderson

3. Jack Howarth

4. Nick Meaney

5. Xavier Coates

6. Cameron Munster

7. Jahrome Hughes

8. Stefano Utoikamanu

9. Harry Grant

10. Josh King

11. Shawn Blore

12. Eli Katoa

13. Trent Loiero

Interchange

14. Tyran Wishart

15. Alec MacDonald

16. Tui Kamikamica

17. Lazarus Vaalepu

Reserves

18. Bronson Garlick

19. Joe Chan

20. Kane Bradley

21. Coby Williamson

22. Nelson Asofa-Solomona

Penrith Panthers Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
1-1	1-1	2-0

I’m not sure Penrith have played as poorly as they did against the Roosters in the last 5 years, going down to the Chooks 38-32.

Completion rate doesn’t usually rank up there in key statistics but for Penrith to complete 27 of 39 sets was atrocious. For patches they simply couldn’t hold onto the ball and it cost them dearly with Sydney capitalising on good field position.

I also don’t remember a game when Penrith were at full strength and they leaked 8 linebreaks to their opponents, while also losing the run metre battle by 20. In attack they were not much better, despite putting up 32 points. The Panthers had 38 tackles inside the Roosters 20m and were denied repeatedly.

The Panthers have now conceded 54 points in their opening two matches of the season, well off their average of 15.2 points conceded per game in 2024.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-12	13+
1-1	2-0	1-1	0-0

Penrith Panthers Team News

Daine Laurie will take over the No. 1 jersey with Dylan Edwards expected to miss a few weeks with a groin injury.

Isaiah Papali'i will return to the Penrith bench after missing last week with a hip complaint.

Blaize Talagi still can’t crack the Panthers side with Brad Schneider taking Laurie's utility role on the bench.

Penrith Panthers Team List

1. Daine Laurie

2. Casey McLean

3. Izack Tago

4. Paul Alamoti

5. Brian To'o

6. Jack Cole

7. Nathan Cleary

8. Moses Leota

9. Mitch Kenny

10. Lindsay Smith

11. Scott Sorensen

12. Liam Martin

13. Isaah Yeo

Interchange

14. Brad Schneider

15. Isaiah Papali'i

16. Liam Henry

17. Luke Garner

Reserves

18. Blaize Talagi

19. Trent Toelau

20. Matthew Eisenhuth

21. Luke Sommerton

22. Tom Jenkins

Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers NRL 2025 Round 3 FAQ’s

How to watch Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers NRL 2025 Round 3?

You can watch the Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers NRL 2025 Round 3 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers NRL 2025 Round 3?

To buy tickets to the Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers NRL 2025 Round 3 game check the NRL website or the official Melbourne Storm site.

Verdict

Melbourne Storm v Penrith Panthers

The Melbourne Storm will cover the 9.5- point line as the favourite in a match that produces less than 45.5 points.

Ryan Papenhuyzen will score his 32nd try in 37 games at AAMI Park.

Melbourne -9.5

Handicap/Line

$1.92 - 2 Units

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Under 45.5

Game Total

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Ryan Papenhuyzen

Anytime Tryscorer

$2.00 - 2 Units

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Ryan Papenhuyzen

First Tryscorer

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