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Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers Tips - Storm get their Grand Final revenge
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- Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers expert predictions for Thursday’s Round 3 NRL game
- Kick off is at 8:00 PM at AAMI Park
- Dylan Edwards absent, increasing Melbourne's winning margin.
- Ryan Papenhuyzen expected to score his 32nd try at AAMI Park.
Jez's unexpected tips for Thursday's NRL match between the Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers.
Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers, Round 3 2025 - Expert Prediction
Melbourne will hand Penrith their second consecutive loss, covering the 9.5 points as the favourite.
- Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers, Round 3 2025 - Expert Prediction
- Head to Head
- Melbourne Storm Form Analysis & Betting Trends
- Melbourne Storm Team News
- Melbourne Storm Team List
- Penrith Panthers Form Analysis & Betting Trends
- Penrith Panthers Team News
- Penrith Panthers Team List
- Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers NRL 2025 Round 3 FAQ’s
With full discretion, this is tough call but our models based on points scored and points conceded over the 2024 and 2025 season has the Storm beating Penrith by 7.8 points. With Dylan Edwards out of the Panthers 17, that margin increases by at least 2 points.
Melbourne slaughtered the Eels in their opener, but this prediction is more based around how the Panthers have started this season, more specifically leaking 54 points in the opening two games of the year.
The game total is too high considering the past between these two teams and taking the under while covering a large line is also against the grain. However, the script will be that Melbourne get out to a lead and protect it with pure game management from Jahrome Hughes.
Ryan Papenhuyzen has an unheard of record at scoring tries at AAMI Park and got a dubbel in the Storm’s opener. Paps will be on the attack and will slice through at some stage.
- Penrith have failed to cover the line in all three regular season games when starting as 9.5 point underdogs or more since the 2019 season.
- Melbourne won 13 of 14 games last season when starting as 9.5-point favourites or shorter, covering the line in the last 4 matches.
- 7 of the last 9 matches between Melbourne and Penrith have had a game total of less than 45.5 points.
- Ryan Papenhuyzen has 31 tries in 36 games at AAMI Park
Head to Head
The Storm and Panthers faced each other 3 times in 2024, with Melbourne winning both games in the home and away season, with the Panthers winning the big one and claiming the Premiership.
In the last 10 matches between the two sides, Penrith hold a slight 6-4 lead, dating back to the 2021 season.
Melbourne Storm Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
| Last 5 W/L | Last 5 ATS | Last 5 O/U |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
Melbourne enjoyed the week off with the Round 2 bye and are fully-fit to take on the Premiers in the Grand Final replay.
Melbourne showed their intent in their opening round match against the Eels, leading at halftime 46-6, before taking their foot off the gas in the second half to get a 56-18 victory.
If the result had more to do with how bad the Eels are in 2025 or how good the Storm are, it is likely both. Melbourne took 66% of the territory in the first half and turned it into 8 linebreaks, 966 run metres and 234 post contact metres.
Jahrome Hughes and Cam Munster controlled it all with 5 linebreak assists and 4 try assists between them in the match.
2025 Betting Trends
| ATS | Over/Under | 1-12 | 13+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 1-0 |
Melbourne Storm Team News
Grant Andersson comes in on the wing replacing Will Warbrick.
Nelson Asofa-Solomona has been named in the reserves for the time being, Lazarus Vaalepu holds his spot on the interchange bench.
Melbourne Storm Team List
1. Ryan Papenhuyzen
2. Grant Anderson
3. Jack Howarth
4. Nick Meaney
5. Xavier Coates
6. Cameron Munster
7. Jahrome Hughes
8. Stefano Utoikamanu
9. Harry Grant
10. Josh King
11. Shawn Blore
12. Eli Katoa
13. Trent Loiero
Interchange
14. Tyran Wishart
15. Alec MacDonald
16. Tui Kamikamica
17. Lazarus Vaalepu
Reserves
18. Bronson Garlick
19. Joe Chan
20. Kane Bradley
21. Coby Williamson
22. Nelson Asofa-Solomona
Penrith Panthers Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
| Last 5 W/L | Last 5 ATS | Last 5 O/U |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 1-1 | 2-0 |
I’m not sure Penrith have played as poorly as they did against the Roosters in the last 5 years, going down to the Chooks 38-32.
Completion rate doesn’t usually rank up there in key statistics but for Penrith to complete 27 of 39 sets was atrocious. For patches they simply couldn’t hold onto the ball and it cost them dearly with Sydney capitalising on good field position.
I also don’t remember a game when Penrith were at full strength and they leaked 8 linebreaks to their opponents, while also losing the run metre battle by 20. In attack they were not much better, despite putting up 32 points. The Panthers had 38 tackles inside the Roosters 20m and were denied repeatedly.
The Panthers have now conceded 54 points in their opening two matches of the season, well off their average of 15.2 points conceded per game in 2024.
2025 Betting Trends
| ATS | Over/Under | 1-12 | 13+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 2-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Penrith Panthers Team News
Daine Laurie will take over the No. 1 jersey with Dylan Edwards expected to miss a few weeks with a groin injury.
Isaiah Papali'i will return to the Penrith bench after missing last week with a hip complaint.
Blaize Talagi still can’t crack the Panthers side with Brad Schneider taking Laurie's utility role on the bench.
Penrith Panthers Team List
1. Daine Laurie
2. Casey McLean
3. Izack Tago
4. Paul Alamoti
5. Brian To'o
6. Jack Cole
7. Nathan Cleary
8. Moses Leota
9. Mitch Kenny
10. Lindsay Smith
11. Scott Sorensen
12. Liam Martin
13. Isaah Yeo
Interchange
14. Brad Schneider
15. Isaiah Papali'i
16. Liam Henry
17. Luke Garner
Reserves
18. Blaize Talagi
19. Trent Toelau
20. Matthew Eisenhuth
21. Luke Sommerton
22. Tom Jenkins
Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers NRL 2025 Round 3 FAQ’s
How to watch Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers NRL 2025 Round 3?
You can watch the Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers NRL 2025 Round 3 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.
How to buy tickets to Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers NRL 2025 Round 3?
To buy tickets to the Melbourne Storm vs Penrith Panthers NRL 2025 Round 3 game check the NRL website or the official Melbourne Storm site.
Verdict
The Melbourne Storm will cover the 9.5- point line as the favourite in a match that produces less than 45.5 points.
Ryan Papenhuyzen will score his 32nd try in 37 games at AAMI Park.
Ryan Papenhuyzen will score his 32nd try in 37 games at AAMI Park.
Melbourne -9.5
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Under 45.5
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Ryan Papenhuyzen
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