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Canberra Raiders vs Cronulla Sharks NRL Tips - Sharks circle against vulnerable Raiders
An expert preview predicts the Canberra Raiders are at high risk of a straight-sets finals exit after a devastating loss to Brisbane. The Raiders, despite finishing top in the regular season, have struggled to put teams away and lack finals experience. The Cronulla Sharks, on the other hand, are surging with eight wins in nine games, and star try-scorers Mulitalo and Iro are set to target the Raiders’ weak right edge. The Sharks are backed to cover the +5.5 line and win outright, with Canberra’s mental and defensive frailties likely proving decisive.
- Canberra Raiders vs Cronulla Sharks expert predictions for Saturday's semi-final game
- Kick off is at 7.50pm AEST at GIO Stadium
- Raiders reeling after last week's extraordinary loss to Brisbane; Sharks have enjoyed recent success in this matchup
- Ronaldo Mulitalo & KL Iro can exploit shaky Raiders' right edge defence
- Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bets
Canberra Raiders vs Cronulla Sharks NRL Tips
Canberra Raiders vs Cronulla Sharks, NRL Semi-Final - Expert Prediction
I'm tipping more heartbreak in the nation's capital, with the Raiders in massive danger of crashing out of the finals series in straight sets when they come up against the steely Sharks on Saturday night.
- Canberra Raiders vs Cronulla Sharks, NRL Semi-Final - Expert Prediction
- Canberra Raiders vs Cronulla Sharks Semi Final Cheat Sheet
- Head To Head
- Canberra Raiders Form Analysis
- Canberra Raiders Team News
- Canberra Raiders Team List
- Cronulla Sharks Form Analysis
- Cronulla Sharks Team News
- Cronulla Sharks Team List
Will lightning strike twice across Australia's two major footy codes? We saw AFL minor premiers Adelaide dumped out of the finals in straight sets and now the Raiders are a very real chance of following them on the next Jetstar flight to Bali. Honestly, I expected Canberra to struggle in the finals, but I also believed they'd be playing the Roosters in the semi-finals and not the Sharks - although to be fair to Cronulla, they are proving the doubters wrong with some gritty performances as of late.
Anyway, back to the Raiders. I've always thought there was an element of luck to their finishing top of the table and these things have a funny way of evening out when it matters most, which is exactly what we saw in what was one of the greatest finals games in history against the Broncos. If you take the Vegas R1 game vs the Warriors out of the equation, the Raiders only had an average winning margin of 4.5 points against top eight sides this season. That's flirting with danger. Raiders 1-12 was a profitable bandwagon bet for most of the year and that's because they have a distinct inability to put teams away. No killer instinct. And they paid the ultimate price against Brisbane, where they blew a 28-12 lead with 14 minutes remaining.
Never mind the physical output of playing 94 minutes last week, the Raiders will struggle to overcome the mental side of things - three times they looked certainties to advance into the preliminary finals, twice shut down by the bunker. Backing up less than a week later against a methodical and meticulous Sharks outfit will be a seismic assignment.
I've been critical of them for most of the season, but I'm keen to go all in on the Sharks here. For all of the electric and entertaining play the Raiders have provided us with all season, their spine is still extremely raw and halfback Jamal Fogarty was found lacking with the game on the line last week. I'm taking Cronulla with a +5.5 start and outright H2H, while the likes of Ronaldo Mulitalo and KL Iro should have a field day exploiting the extremely vulnerable Raiders' right edge defence, which leaked those three tries in the dying stages last week and has struggled throughout the course of the season.
- Raiders have lost four of their last five finals games
- Sharks have won eight of their last nine games
- Sharks have won three of their last four games vs Raiders
- Sharks have covered a +5.5 line in seven of their last eight games vs Raiders
- Sharks have won their last two games vs top eight teams by 18 & 10 points
- Raiders' average winning margin in their last seven games vs top eight teams is 4.5 points
- Raiders have only played two top eight teams since Round 13
- Ronaldo Mulitalo has scored seven tries in his last four games
- KL Iro has scored 10 tries in 12 games this season
Canberra Raiders vs Cronulla Sharks Semi Final Cheat Sheet
Raiders vs Sharks Rd 28 Cheat Sheet
Raiders vs Sharks Rd 28 Cheat Sheet
Head To Head
The Sharks have won three of the last four meetings between the teams, but the Raiders emerged triumphant in the most-recent clash in Round 5 this season at GIO Stadium, coming away with a narrow 24-20 triumph after Seb Kris scored the match-winning try in the 79th minute.
Canberra Raiders Form Analysis
As mentioned earlier, I haven't really been sold on the Raiders for most of the season. Yes, they deserved the minor premiership, but there were genuine concerns over the Green Machine's ability to go to that required next level in the finals.
For me, Canberra weren't entirely ready. Ricky Stuart's side had only faced one top eight team since R13 heading into last week. That's obviously not their fault, but it does bring into question if their current form was worthy of being minor premiers. Reece Walsh absolutely ripped them apart in the last 15 minutes last week and it was yet another example of the Raiders failing to keep their foot on the gas this season.
Let's not forget the Raiders also went down to the Dragons not so long ago. Most of their convincing wins this season were only against teams that had shut up shop for 2025 or those anchored towards the bottom of the ladder.
Kaeo Weekes and Ethan Strange have been brilliant all season, but the fact remains they have no finals experience and their spine leader Jamal Fogarty missed an easy conversion that could have put the game out of reach, along with struggling to get in the right position for field goal attempts. It will be very intriguing to see how this young team bounces back from the heartbreak of last week.
Canberra Raiders Team News
Ricky Stuart has named the same 17 players that went down to the Broncos last week, with Matty Nicholson again named 18th man.
Canberra Raiders Team List
1. Kaeo Weekes
2. Savelio Tamale
3. Matthew Timoko
4. Sebastian Kris
5. Jed Stuart
6. Ethan Strange
7. Jamal Fogarty
8. Josh Papali’i
9. Tom Starling
10. Joseph Tapine
11. Hudson Young
12. Zac Hosking
13. Corey Horsburgh
Interchange
14. Owen Pattie
15. Simi Sasagi
16. Morgan Smithies
17. Ata Mariota
Reserves
18. Matt Nicholson
19. Danny Levi
20. Trey Mooney
21. Ethan Sanders
22. Chevy Stewart
Cronulla Sharks Form Analysis
Could the stars be aligning for the Sharks? They've won their first Finals Week 1 game since 2016 and we all know what happened that season. The Storm are well below their best and appear there for the taking in the preliminary finals. It's one of those years where the premiership is anyones - could the Sharkies spring the ultimate surprise?
Cronulla struggled to shed the flat-track bully tag for the bulk of the year, but after outclassing the Bulldogs 24-6 to secure a home elimination final, they backed it up with a workmanlike 20-10 victory over the Roosters last week.
It wasn't a pretty performance and they certainly benefitted from a flurry of Roosters' errors, but that's what the Sharks do - they suffocate and can bring you down to their level, which is something that could easily prove fruitful against a wounded Canberra side on Saturday night.
Braydon Trindall has stepped up to ease some of the creative burden on Nicho Hynes, while Addin Fonua-Blake remains one of the most destructive forwards in the competition - his battle through the middle with Josh Papalii and Jo Tapine will be key here.
Cronulla Sharks Team News
Craig Fitzgibbon has also named an unchanged 17 from last week, but towering prop Tom Hazelton is a chance to return after a knee injury kept him sidelined against the Roosters.
Cronulla Sharks Team List
1. William Kennedy
2. Sione Katoa
3 Jesse Ramien
4. KL Iro
5. Ronaldo Mulitalo
6. Braydon Trindall
7. Nicho Hynes
8. Addin Fonua-Blake
9. Blayke Brailey
10. Toby Rudolf
11. Billy Burns
12. Teig Wilton
13. Jesse Colquhoun
Interchange
14. Briton Nikora
15. Siosifa Talakai
16. Oregon Kaufusi
17. Braden Hamlin-Uele
Reserves
18. Daniel Atkinson
19. Mawene Hiroti
20. Jayden Berrell
21. Thomas Hazelton
22. Hohepha Puru
Verdict
The Raiders look vulnerable after last week's heartbreak - backing the Sharks to take advantage, with Ronaldo Mulitalo and KL Iro continuing their prolific try-scoring form against Canberra's shaky right edge defence.
Sharks +5.5
Line
$1.90 - 3 Units
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