Flemington Betting Tips for July 4, 2026 - Fiddler Finds His Tune
Flemington Finals Day delivers a high-quality nine-race program on July 4, showcasing the finals of several winter series and four stakes races, including the A.R. Creswick Stakes. Top plays include Al Duca, Star Of Macedon, Kings Reflection, and longshot The Mean Fiddler. Each of these selections comes recommended due to favourable conditions, weight swings, or strong lead-up performances. Whether you're chasing favourites or value, this is a marquee punting day with plenty of emerging talent and open betting markets.
- Flemington Finals Day features four stakes races, including the finals of major winter series.
- Top betting picks: Al Duca, Star Of Macedon, Kings Reflection (to win); The Mean Fiddler (each-way).
- Look for value in horses with favourable weight changes and proven form at the distance.
Finals Day takes centre stage with a feature-packed program at Flemington. (Getty)
Flemington Finals Day features a quality nine-race program, highlighted by four stakes races and the finals of several popular winter series, making it one of the standout meetings of the season.
From the Taj Rossi Series Final through to the Listed A.R. Creswick Stakes, Saturday's card is packed with competitive racing and emerging talent.
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Flemington Tips July 4
Taj Rossi Series Final Tips (Race 2)
Flemington Next Best Bet - Race 2 No. 3 Star Of Macedon
We have to respect Marwooba, who appreciated the rise in distance to salute at Rosehill last start after contesting a strong maiden at Canterbury, where the first two home filled the quinella of a Listed race at their next clash.
Star Of Macedon does look the pick of the Victorians in the Taj Rossi Series Final.
The Symons & Laxon-trained colt looks as though he's crying out for the mile that he gets on Saturday after a brave debut second at Seymour, where he stuck on despite covering ground.
The son of Zoustar was then off the speed and keen when resuming over 1200m at Caulfield, hit a flat spot and came again late to grab third before recording another placing here over 1420m in the main lead-up event on June 20.
His work past the line indicated the rise in trip would be ideal, and from that event Star Of Macedon meets the winner, Fontein Jewel, 4.5kg better at the weights.
Sharp EIT Mahogany Challenge Final Tips (Race 4)
Flemington Favourite - Race 4 No. 14 Kings Reflection
He does have a big margin to make up on Decalogue from their June 20 clash at Flemington, but there's much more in Kings Reflection's favour this time around, with the gelding receiving a massive 6kg weight swing.
The Taige Weir-trained galloper also draws kinder after going right back from a wide alley last start.
He showed at Warrnambool when breaking through that he's capable of holding a neutral position when drawing a decent gate.
The campaign has been spaced well, with a month between runs after that maiden triumph before a narrow defeat over the Swan Hill Carnival.
On breeding, the 2500m looks ideal, being out of a mare who was Group 3 successful over 2600m, and Kings Reflection gives every indication he'll relish the staying trip on Saturday.
VRC-CRV Winter Championship Series Final Tips (Race 7)
Flemington Best Bet - Race 7 No. 3 Al Duca
The five-year-old has been very consistent this season, recording five wins across two campaigns.
The only major flop came in the Listed Golden Mile on May 2, where he reportedly resented the firm Good 4 surface, with his autumn victories before that both coming on Soft tracks over this distance.
Off a freshen-up, he returned to his brave best when sticking on before only being swamped late by Seafall, who he not only meets fitter here but also enjoys a 2kg weight swing over.
There should be improvement to come, given Al Duca was returning from a six-week break in that June 20 appearance.
Craig Williams stays aboard, with "Willo" taking a five-win lead into Saturday's Victorian Metropolitan Jockeys' Premiership, and of his full book of rides on Finals Day, Al Duca looks the pick of them.
A.R. Creswick Stakes Tips (Race 8)
Flemington Feature Bets - Race 8 No. 3 Recuperato & No. 9 Ludlum
Recuperato and Ludlum are both at each-way odds in an open Listed sprint, and both have genuine claims.
The Gelagotis-trained filly has mixed her form but clearly has talent, which was evident as a juvenile, with the highlight coming when swooping up the straight in a Group 3 to salute for us at nice odds.
Her trial work was good leading into the June 20 return on Heavy ground, where she produced a solid performance despite racing in the inferior going.
Ludlum could well be the best horse to come through this race, with the grey disappointing in his final run of his first preparation at Flemington, but he has bounced back.
The grey resumed as expected with a Class 1 victory at Seymour on June 11 and has since worked well in a Cranbourne jump-out.
Silver Bowl Series Final Tips (Race 9)
Flemington Value Bet - Race 9 No. 9 The Mean Fiddler
Patrick Payne has accepted with two runners for the Silver Bowl Series Final, headed by market elect Clever Trevor.
He's chasing five straight wins at his first attempt over a mile after narrowly scoring at Sandown last start and remains very genuine despite queries over the rise in trip and an extra 2kg.
His biggest threat could easily be stablemate The Mean Fiddler, who showed promise through his first preparation, culminating with a placing at Flemington, before seemingly using the Swan Hill resumption over six furlongs as a fitness run.
The rise to 1500m suited him second-up when runner-up at Bendigo, where he conceded 5kg to the winner, who was also an older rival.
This shapes as the peak run he's building towards back against his own age over a mile with 6.5kg less to carry, while his only Heavy-track run resulted in a dominant victory.
Verdict
Our best & value bets for Saturday's Flemington card are:
Al Duca
To Win
$2.80 - 3 Units
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Star Of Macedon
To Win
$3.50 - 3 Units
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Kings Reflection
To Win
$2.90 - 2 Units
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The Mean Fiddler
Each Way
$10.00 - 2 Units
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