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Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions Tips - Lions take another swipe at the Swans

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Thu 13 Mar 2025 12:05

Jeremy Darke 13 Mar 2025

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Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions expert predictions for Saturday’s Round 1 AFL game
The game will be played at SCG, with the bounce at 4:15 PM (AEDT)
Brisbane maintains a consistent lineup from last year's Premiership win and aims for a third consecutive Grand Final appearance.
Sydney Swans face challenges with a long injury list, rely on strong backline work to counter Brisbane's forward pressure.

Saturday's AFL Early Window Predictions.

Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions, Round 1 2025 - Expert Prediction

Brisbane will start their title defence with a a second consecutive victory over the Grand Final opponents the Sydney Swans, covering the 3.5-point line as the favourite.

Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions, Round 1 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Sydney Swans Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Sydney Swans Team News
Sydney Swans Team List
Brisbane Lions Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Brisbane Lions Team News
Brisbane Lions Team List
Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Round 1 FAQ’s

The Swans went down by 20 in the Opening Round against the Hawks and it was no surprise with Sydney donning one of the longest injury lists in the AFL, which they added to this week with Taylor Adams now being ruled out.

Brisbane on the other side of things have an almost identical side to the one that took the Premiership last September and they will not skip a beat this season as they attempt to make their third-consecutive Grand Final appearance.

Brisbane put the ball inside 50 as good as anyone in 2024 and with the Swans suffering, expect the Lions to give their forwards as many opportunities as possible to attack. Expect a decent amount of points from the Lions and the backline of the Swans doing a lot of work.

Brisbane have won their last 4 matches against the Swans.
Brisbane have scored over 89.5 points in 5 of their last 7 games against Sydney.
Brisbane averaged 56.5 inside 50s in 2024, the second-most of any team.
Matt Roberts had 26 disposals in Opening Round for the Swans.

Head to Head

Brisbane clobbered Sydney 120-60 in the 2024 Grand Final kicking more goals than the Swans had scoring shots. Brisbane also took a narrow victory in the 2024 home and away season, edging Sydney 79-77 at the Gabba.

The Grand Final victory was Brisbane’s sixth win in seven matches against the Swans, including a 113-89 victory last time these two met at the SCG.

Sydney Swans Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

The Swans fell in the Opening Round of the 2025 season to the Hawthorn Hawks 96-76. Despite a third-quarter comeback by Sydney, they could not hold the pace against the high-energy Hawks who pulled away to a comfortable lead mid-way through the final term.

The Swans couldn’t match the forward pressure of Hawthorn who won the inside 50 battle 58-40 on the back of better work in the ruck winning the clearances 47-33.

Backs Matt Roberts and Nick Blakey did plenty of work moving the ball around in their own end, topping the disposal list for Sydney with 26 apiece.

2024 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
17-9	16-10	13-5	6-2

Sydney Swans Team News

Riley Bice will make his debut for the Swans, replacing the injured Taylor Adams.

Joel Hamling will also play his first match for the Swans in his second year at the club after stints with the Bulldogs and the Dockers. Hamling will replace Angus Sheldrick who was subbed out of last week’s match.

Sydney Swans Team List

B: N.Blakey, L.Melican, S.Wicks

HB: M.Roberts, D.Rampe, B.Paton

C: J.Lloyd, I.Heeney - C, J.McInerney

HF: B.Campbell, T.McCartin, T.Papley

F: W.Hayward, J.Amartey, J.Jordon

FOLL: B.Grundy, Ch.Warner, J.Rowbottom

I/C: O.Florent, J.Hamling, R.Bice, Co.Warner, T.Hanily

EMG: P.Ladhams, C.Mitchell, A.Sheldrick

Brisbane Lions Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

The form for Brisbane cannot be better with their last official match a Premiership win and a convincing one at that, beating the Swans by 60.

Brisbane limped through the season with 5 players being ruled out for the year with serious knee injuries that crippled their backline most of all. Obviously, their depth prevailed and has given them plenty of options in 2025 once the likes of Keidean Coleman, Tom Doedee and Darcy Cardniner get back to full fitness.

2024 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
13-14	13-14	12-7	6-1

Brisbane Lions Team News

Logan Morris gets the nod to replace the retired Joe Daniher in the forward line for the Lions. Levi Ashcroft will be the third man in his family to put on the Lions guernsey when he debuts on Saturday evening against the Swans.

Brandon Starcevich has been named after clearing concussion protocol after a head-knock in preseason.

Brisbane Lions Team List

B: D.Zorko, J.Payne, R.Lester

HB: N.Answerth, H.Andrews - C, D.Wilmot

C: J.Fletcher, Z.Bailey, J.Berry

HF: C.Cameron, E.Hipwood, H.McCluggage

F: C.Rayner, L.Morris, K.Lohmann

FOLL: O.McInerney, J.Dunkley, L.Neale

I/C: C.Ah Chee, W.Ashcroft, L.Ashcroft, D.Fort, B.Starcevich

EMG: C.McKenna, W.McLachlan, D.Joyce

Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Round 1 FAQ’s

How to watch Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Round 1?

You can watch the Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Round 1 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Round 1?

To buy tickets to the Sydney Swans vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Round 1 game check the AFL website or the official Sydney Swans site.

Verdict

Sydney v Brisbane

Brisbane will push the ball forward and kick over 89.5 points in the match covering the 3.5 points as the favourites in the Grand Final replay.

With so much forward pressure from Brisbane, Matt Roberts will can plenty of touches and record 25+ disposals for the second time in as many matches.

Brisbane -3.5

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Brisbane Over 89.5

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