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Hawthorn vs Essendon Tips - Hawks to continue perfect start to 2025

Adam Cusworth

Editor

Last updated: Thu 13 Mar 2025 09:48

Adam Cusworth 13 Mar 2025

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Hawthorn aims to build on a strong start with a win over Essendon in Round 1.
Essendon boasts early season form but faces multiple injury concerns.
Hawthorn is favored due to recent excellent form and success at the MCG.

Hawthorn vs Essendon, Round 1 2025 - Expert Prediction

Hawthorn will be out to continue their impressive start to the season with a win over Essendon in Round 1.

Hawthorn vs Essendon, Round 1 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Hawthorn Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Hawthorn Team News
Hawthorn Team List
Essendon Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Essendon Team News
Essendon Team List

The Hawks were one of just four sides to feature in the Opening Round and defeated last year’s Grand Finalists, Sydney, by 20 points at the SCG.

Will Day was the star for the Hawks with 26-disposals and three goals, while James Sicily came up clutch in the last term when switched to the forward line.

Essendon, however, will be no pushovers. The Bombers are renowned for their early season form and have impressed in the pre-season, chalking up a win over Geelong in the Community Series.

Their draft pick, Isaac Kako, made his mark in that match with four goals, while Nate Caddy looked dangerous with three. ElijaH Tsatas picked up 31 disposals. This will be a close one but the Hawks polish, as well as their excellent form at the MCG, should get them over the line.

Hawthorn have won 12 of their last 14 home and away matches.
Jai Newcombe has averaged 27 disposals in his last 10 matches.
Zach Merrett has averaged 29 disposals in his past four matches against Hawthorn.
Essendon lost six of their last seven matches in 2024, five of the six losses were by 39 points or less.

Head to Head

Essendon have won their past four matches against Hawthorn, including the corresponding encoutner last year by 24 points. The Hawks cost themselves in that match with inaccuracy and had six more scoring shots.

Three of those four matches were held at the MCG. Essendon were 4-3-1 at the venue in 2024, Hawthorn were 6-4. There last six matches at the MCG have been wins.

Hawthorn Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Hawthorn were the talk of the AFL world in the second half of 2024, producing a stunning turnaround to go from 3-7 to claim 11 of their last 13 home and away matches before defeating the Western Bulldogs in the Elimnation Final. They then went down narrowly to Port Adelaide.

Opening Round form suggests that the run was no fluke with Sam Mitchell’s side registering a 20-point win over last year’s Grand Finalists, Sydney, at the SCG. They were able to absorb a Swans fightback in that match to steady in the last term.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
7-17	13-11	7-4	9-4

Hawthorn Team News

Hawthorn are set to lose James Worpel from the side that defeated the Sydney Swans with the midfielder sustaining an ankle injury. Josh Ward looms as his likely replacement and was one of the emergencies heading into that match. Henry Hustwaite is another option.

Hawthorn Team List

B: T.Barrass, B.Hardwick, M.D’Ambrosio

HB: J.Scrimshaw, J.Impey, J.Battle

C: D.Moore, C.Nash, J.Sicily - C

HF: C.Macdonald, H.Morrison, N.Watson

F: J.Ginnivan, M.Chol, W.Day

FOLL: L.Meek, J.Ward, K.Amon

I/C: J.Weddle, J.Newcombe, C.Mackenzie, F.Maginness, S.Frost

EMG: C.Jiath, J.Gunston, L.Breust

Essendon Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Essendon battled at the business end in 2024. The Bombers were well and truly in the mix for a top four spot at the half-way mark of the season but won just three of their last 12 matches to crash out of contention, ending the season in 11th position with 11 wins and a draw.

In their Community Series win over Geelong, they registered a slick 17.2 in front of goals, claiming the 21 point win despite registering four less scoring shots. The Bombers led the disposal count (429-365) but had fewer inside 50s (47-58).

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
9-14	13-10	10-8	1-3

Essendon Team News

The Bombers have faced several pre-season injury concerns, with Darcy Parish (back), Sam Durham (ribs), Jordan Ridley (hamstring), Jye Caldwell (hip), and Ben McKay (ankle) all missing significant time.

Parish’s back injury has not progressed as hoped, making him unlikely for Round 1, while Caldwell has been moved into the starting centre bounce. Small forward Matt Guelfi will miss an extended period with a hamstring injury, and Alwyn Davey Jr. has also suffered a knee injury.

Draftee Isaac Kako impressed in the pre-season, particularly alongside Nate Caddy, who together kicked seven goals in a hit-out against Geelong. Sam Draper and Nick Bryan are set to lead the ruck rotation, while Dylan Shiel has excelled in a new half-back role. Elijah Tsatas is primed for a breakout season after strong performances in match simulation.

Essendon Team List

B: A.McGrath, B.McKay, J.Ridley

HB: M.Redman, Z.Reid, J.Prior

C: N.Martin, J.Caldwell, A.Roberts

HF: N.Caddy, K.Langford, A.Perkins

F: H.Jones, S.Draper, I.Kako

FOLL: N.Bryan, S.Durham, Z.Merrett - C

I/C: E.Tsatas, B.Hobbs, D.Shiel, J.Gresham, X.Duursma

EMG: J.Menzie, S.El-Hawli, T.Edwards

Verdict

Hawthorn v Essendon

Hawthorn to account for Essendon despite resistance from Zach Merrett. Jai Newcombe to find plenty of the footy for the Hawks

Hawthorn

Winning Margin 1-39

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