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Adelaide Crows vs St Kilda Saints AFL Tips - Same old Saints can’t break Adelaide hoodoo

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Fri 14 Mar 2025 13:23

Ryan Tucker 14 Mar 2025

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Adelaide Crows vs St Kilda Saints expert predictions for Sunday’s Round 1 AFL game
The game will be played at Adelaide Oval, with the bounce at 12:35 PM (AEDT)
Adelaide Crows predicted to win at home with a margin of 1-39 against St Kilda Saints.
Crows focus on strong season start with key player Riley Thilthorpe expected to score.
St Kilda struggles with offensive deficiencies; recent form and injuries affect chances.

Ryan delivers his top picks for the Sunday AFL slate.

Adelaide Crows vs St Kilda Saints, Round 1 2025 - Expert Prediction

Adelaide will win at home with a margin of 1-39 continuing the Saints misery at the ground over the past 6 years.

Adelaide Crows vs St Kilda Saints, Round 1 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Adelaide Crows Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2024 Betting Trends
Adelaide Crows Team News
Adelaide Crows Team List
St Kilda Saints Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2024 Betting Trends
St Kilda Saints Team News
St Kilda Saints Team List
Adelaide Crows vs St Kilda Saints AFL 2025 Round 1 FAQ’s

St Kilda have lost 4 straight games at Adelaide Oval and 6 of their last 9 at the ground heading into their first game of the 2025 season. Neither team were especially great in 2024 but it is easier to see where Adelaide make improvements by just having their full squad available to play.

The Crows lost 4 in a row to start last season and will be desperate to get off to a flyer to set up their year. They were one of the more accurate teams in front of goal last season ranking 4th with a 52.9% accuracy rate.

St Kilda have still not addressed their deficiencies in attack and scoring which is why I believe they will have trouble going over their team total against a polished defensive team in the Crows.

Take Adelaide 1-39, Saints under Team Total and Thilthorpe to get 2 goals.

36 of a combined 45 games (1 draw) for these two teams last season finished with a 1-39 margin.
St Kilda had the 4th lowest Points Total of any team in the league in 2024.
In their matchup last season the Saints scored just 39 pts.
Riley Thilthorpe averaged 2.1 goals per game last season at 65% accuracy and has kicked 7 goals in 4 games against St Kilda.

Head to Head

Adelaide own the series against St Kilda dating back to the 2019 season taking 5 of 7 wins during that time span including the last 2 in a row.

Last season it was a 71-39 victory in Adelaide in a game that went Under the total, part of a 4-3 record to the Under.

All but 1 of the 7 games played have finished with a winning margin of 1-39.

Adelaide Crows Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
1-4	2-3	4-1

The Crows had another disappointing season in 2024 finishing 15th on the ladder with a 8-14-1 record.

They scored a lot more points than teams in their immediate vicinity in the standings but had trouble converting that into wins with their sub-par defence allowing opposition teams the opportunity to snatch victory on multiple occasions.

12 of the 14 losses incurred in 2024 all were by margins of 1-39 with an average of 15.5 pts per game indicating the team is right on the cusp of being able to turn losses into wins.

2024 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
12-11	13-10	6-12	2-2

Adelaide Crows Team News

Number 4 draft pick Sid Draper will make his debut off the interchange on Sunday. Chayce Jones will be out with a shoulder injury for up to two weeks. Isaac Cumming, James Peatling and Alex Neal-Bullen will all make their club debut.

Adelaide Crows Team List

B: J.Worrell, M.Keane, R.Laird

HB: W.Milera, N.Murray, M.Michalanney

C: I.Cumming, J.Dawson - C, L.Sholl

HF: B.Keays, R.Thilthorpe, I.Rankine

F: D.Fogarty, T.Walker, A.Neal-Bullen

FOLL: R.O’Brien, J.Soligo, J.Peatling

I/C: S.Draper,, M.Crouch, J.Rachele, M.Hinge D.Curtin

EMG: H.Bond, L.Murphy, T.Murray

St Kilda Saints Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
4-1	3-2	2-3

St Kilda finished 12th last year on equal points with the Suns and Demons below them but slightly ahead on percentage thanks to their superior defensive numbers where they ranked 5th in the league allowing just 76.43 pts per game to their opponents.

With such focus on the defensive end, as has always been the case with Ross Lyon coached teams - the attack faltered. The Saints scored just 39 points twice and did not score more than 70 on 11 occasions throughout the year.

St Kilda were the worst team at the Centre Clearance last season, averaging just 10 per game compared to the league average 12.

2024 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
12-11	7-16	8-10	3-2

St Kilda Saints Team News

Mitch Owens has been ruled out with a shoulder injury. Dan Butler, Liam Henry and Max King are all 1-3 weeks away from returning.

St Kilda Saints Team List

B: C.Wilkie, Z.Cordy, J.Webster

HB: L.O’Connell, N.Wanganeen-Milera, R.Byrnes

C: B.Hill, J.Sinclair, M.Wood

HF: H.Garcia, M.Windhager, M.Hall

F: D.Wilson, A.Caminiti, J.Higgins

FOLL: R.Marshall, J.Macrae, J.Steele - C

I/C: Z.Jones, H.Clark, A.Hastie, A.Schoenmaker, H.Boyd

EMG: L.Stocker, I.Keeler, H.Boxshall

Adelaide Crows vs St Kilda Saints AFL 2025 Round 1 FAQ’s

How to watch Adelaide Crows vs St Kilda Saints AFL 2025 Round 1?

You can watch the Adelaide Crows vs St Kilda Saints AFL 2025 Round 1 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Adelaide Crows vs St Kilda Saints AFL 2025 Round 1?

To buy tickets to the Adelaide Crows vs St Kilda Saints AFL 2025 Round 1 game check the AFL website or the official Adelaide Crows site.

Verdict

Adelaide v St Kilda

Take Adelaide 1-39, Saints under Team Total and Thilthorpe to get 2 goals.

Adelaide 1-39

Winning Margin

$2.00 - 3 Units

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