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Richmond Tigers vs Essendon Bombers AFL Tips - Beat up Bombers get a win

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Thu 10 Jul 2025 14:35

Jeremy Darke 10 Jul 2025

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Richmond Tigers vs Essendon Bombers expert predictions for Saturday’s Round 18 AFL game
The game will be played at MCG, with the bounce at 7:35 PM (AEST)
Essendon tipped to win, backed by their recent performances and head-to-head advantage.
Midfield battle highlights: Zach Merrett vs Tim Taranto

Richmond Tigers vs Essendon Bombers, Round 18 2025 - Expert Prediction

Don’t expect a classic match between Richmond and Essendon with both teams riddled with injury, but there has to be a winner and it will be the Bombers in a scrap fight.

Richmond Tigers vs Essendon Bombers, Round 18 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Richmond Tigers Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Richmond Tigers Team News
Richmond Tigers Team List
Essendon Bombers Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Essendon Bombers Team News
Essendon Bombers Team List
Richmond Tigers vs Essendon Bombers AFL 2025 Round 18 FAQ’s

Two teams that need to be at full-health to make any sort of impression simply have not had lady luck on their sides in 2025, both boasting long injury list that seem to get extended every week.

It certainly takes any sort of sting out of this Saturday night clash but with both club’s suffering, recent head-to-head trends still have their weight. Also, Essendon put in a galant performance last weekend against the Suns, at least for three quarters, so that is why the needle moves over to them. Richmond have lost their last 7, however their draw has been a killer and although I’m not expecting them to get the win, they should be able to hang with Essendon for large parts of this match, so taking the 1-39 is the play.

Both Richmond (18th) and Essendon (16th) are in the bottom three in points scored in their last 5 matches, so there is no reason to think that the score keeper is going to have a tough day at the MCG. A total of 164.5 points will be tough for these two to reach.

The midfield battle is going to be one to watch with the battle between Zach Merrett and Tim Taranto the highlight for me. Merrett is averaging 28.2 disposals a game and is almost unbackable at $1.50 for 30+ disposals so I am jumping on Taranto for 25+ at much better value.

Essendon have won their last 3 against Richmond by 23 points or less.
All 6 of Essendon's wins this season have been by a 1-39 margin.
The last 3 matches between Richmond and Essendon have gone under the game total.
Tim Taranto has had 25+ disposals in 3 of his last 4 matches.

Head to Head

Essendon have won the last 3 matches against Richmond including an 81-58 victory in Round 12 this season.

The Bombers 3 victories over the last 3 seasons broke a 13-game win streak of the Tigers in the head to head battle between the pair.

Essendon’s three victories have been by a margin of 23 points or less with the game total going to the under.

Richmond Tigers Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
0-5	1-4	2-3

The little promise that Richmond showed earlier in the season has diminished after 7 losses on the trot with their previous four being by a 40+ margin. To be fair to the Tigers, the competition has been top-class with losses to the Swans, Bulldogs, Crows and the latest a 124-52 thumping by Geelong last weekend.

2025 was always going to be a tough one at Punt Road with the cleanout and rebuild that they are undergoing. Frustration is creeping in, peaking with the Tom Lynch incident against the Crows where he was suspended for 5 weeks for striking.

The challenge for Adem Yze is to keep his men on a development curve that continues to improve each week to a goal that is long in the distance. This hasn’t been the case over the last month, however, they will have a chance against a more modest opponent this week.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
7-9	5-11	3-5	0-8

Richmond Tigers Team News

No. 1 draft pick Sam Lalor has suffered a season-ending hamstring injury which occured in his first game back since Round 11, where he tore the same hamstring.

Richmond Tigers Team List

B: N.Vlastuin, B.Miller, N.Broad

HB: S.Banks, J.Short, T.Brown

C: K.McIntosh, D.Prestia, L.Trainor

HF: J.Ross, S.Campbell, M.Rioli

F: R.Mansell, T.Sims, J.Faull

FOLL: T.Nankervis - C, T.Taranto, J.Hopper

I/C: J.Koschitzke, T.Hotton, T.Young, T.Sonsie, J.Trezise

EMG: J.Blight, S.Green, K.Smith

In: - J.Short, J.Koschitzke, T.Hotton, T.Young, J.Trezise

Out: - J.Blight (Omitted), H.Ralphsmith (Injured), S.Lalor (Injured), J.Alger (Injured), N.Balta (Personal Reason)

Essendon Bombers Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
0-5	2-3	3-2

Essendon hung in until the final quarter against the Suns in Round 17, however the Gold Coast ran away with it as the Bombers kicked 0.1 to 6.3 in the fourth, letting the 3-point deficit turn into a 41-point shellacking.

The Bombers injury list fills the page and Bombers fans will be proud of the effort for three quarters against the Sun. However

, disappointment lingers with Essendon suffering their fifth straight loss of the year after a promising 6-2 run just prior.

There are positives for the Bombers this season, able to dispose of the ball as good as any in the comp with an efficiency 73.9%, which is even more impressive considering they lead the league with an average of 383.7 disposals per game.

Unfortunately the hindering of a growing injury list has demolished any hope of the Bombers contending this season with their potential unable to be reached.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
5-10	6-9	6-3	0-6

Essendon Bombers Team News

Jye Caldwell (ankle) is the latest to be ruled out long-term for the Bombers, succumbing to an ankle injury that will see him unable to return until the final rounds.

Zack Reid will miss the rest of the season after being booked in for surgery on his hamstring.

Nick Cox has been ruled out for the rest of the season due to concussion complications, however, the AFL’s concussion panel has stated that he is okay to play on in 2026.

Essendon Bombers Team List

B: A.McGrath, J.Laverde, A.Roberts

HB: M.Redman, J.Ridley, A.Clarke

C: X.Duursma, Z.Merrett - C, L.Lual

HF: W.Setterfield, N.Caddy, N.Martin

F: A.May, P.Wright, I.Kako

FOLL: T.Goldstein, E.Tsatas, S.Durham

I/C: B.Hobbs, J.Prior, Z.Johnson, L.Blakiston, O.Smartt

EMG: J.Gresham, V.Visentini, A.Day-Wicks

In: - M.Redman, E.Tsatas, O.Smartt

Out: - A.Perkins (Omitted), J.Caldwell (Injured), J.Gresham (Omitted)

Richmond Tigers vs Essendon Bombers AFL 2025 Round 18 FAQ’s

How to watch Richmond Tigers vs Essendon Bombers AFL 2025 Round 18?

You can watch the Richmond Tigers vs Essendon Bombers AFL 2025 Round 18 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Richmond Tigers vs Essendon Bombers AFL 2025 Round 18?

To buy tickets to the Richmond Tigers vs Essendon Bombers AFL 2025 Round 18 game check the AFL website or the official Richmond Tigers site.

Verdict

Richmond Tigers v Essendon Bombers

Tim Taranto’s 25+ disposals won’t be enough for the Tigers to get past the Bombers, who will secure a 1-39 victory in a match that sees less than 164.5 points.

Essendon

1-39 Winning Margin

$2.00 - 2 Units

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Under 164.5

Game Total

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The Ultimate Form Guide

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Tim Taranto

25+ Disposals

$1.87 - 3 Units

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