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GWS Giants vs Geelong Cats AFL Round 18 Tips - Can we see another 4pt margin?

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Thu 10 Jul 2025 14:32

Ryan Tucker 10 Jul 2025

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GWS Giants vs Geelong Cats expert predictions for Saturday’s Round 18 AFL game
The game will be played at ENGIE Stadium, with the bounce at 4:15 PM (AEST)
GWS Giants on resurgence, tipped to win against Geelong Cats.
Predicted 1-39 point win margin for GWS; potential 4-point difference.
Key player performances include Jesse Hogan and Toby Greene's scoring potential.

GWS Giants vs Geelong Cats AFL Round 18 Tips

GWS Giants vs Geelong Cats, Round 18 2025 - Expert Prediction

Another tight tussle is expected on Saturday arvo as two premiership hopefuls match up in a marquee game. I have seen enough of the Giants resurgence to feel confident in backing them for the win in this one.

GWS Giants vs Geelong Cats, Round 18 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
GWS Giants Form Analysis & Betting Trends
2025 Betting Trends
GWS Giants Team News
GWS Giants Team List
Geelong Cats Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
2025 Betting Trends
Geelong Cats Team News
Geelong Cats Team List
GWS Giants vs Geelong Cats AFL 2025 Round 18 FAQ’s

Interestingly, the last 2 in a row and 3 of the last 7 games between these two clubs have ended with 4 point margins and the line is set at 4.5 in this Round 18 clash. Someone is trying to tell us something!

The Orange Tsunami is back after a mid-season form slump and opponents are struggling to contain the run and handball game that the Giants have employed now for a number of seasons. They are likely to welcome back Lachie Whitfield from concussion and could even get Jesse Hogan back on the park in a massive boost for their scoring chances.

The Cats have been plugging away having won 4 straight road games after starting the year 1-3 away from the Cattery. They sit pretty in 4th spot with Jeremy Cameron kicking goals for fun but they historically have struggled to get past the Giants in this head to head.

My expectation is that both teams will steal momentum at different parts of the game but GWS will be able to do more with their chances. The Cats are ranked 16th in Opposition Handballs and 12th in Opposition Disposal Efficiency pointing to a weakness in the armour which the Giants can exploit.

Take GWS on the 1-39 margin, chuck in an exact 4 point win margin (or however close you can get) just for fun and follow it up with Jesse Hogan to score the first goal for the Giants and Toby Greene to kick a double.

6 of the last 7 games between these teams have finished with GWS 1-39 win margins. 81% of Giants games this season have also been 1-39 margins.
The exact winning margin has been 4 points in 2 straight matchups between these teams and in 3 of the last 7.
Jesse Hogan has kicked 40 goals this season, almost double any other player on the team.
Toby Greene has kicked multiple goals in 3 of his last 5 games and in over 50% of games this season.

Head to Head

The Giants firmly own the recent H2H battle with the Cats having won 6 of the last 7 regular season outings including a 105-101 victory at GMHBA Stadium in Round 9 earlier this year.

Geelong have won the lone finals game between the clubs in the same time frame.

A run of 3 straight Unders was broken earlier in the year by an Over but they are still outweighed 4-3. The Winning margin has been single digits in the last 3 matchups. On three occasions since 2019 has the margin finished at exactly 4 pts.

GWS Giants Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
4-1	3-2	2-3

The Giants have overcome their mid-season form slump but still sit 8th on the ladder in a congested AFL rankings. They have won 3 in a row and 5 of their last 6 after heading into the middle of May with a 6-6 record.

Their most recent outing was a 111-52 demolition of the West Coast Eagles and as well as it being 3 straight wins it was also the third straight game the Giants had eclipsed 100 points scored. The previous two against Brisbane and Gold Coast significantly more important.

Rebounding from the backline using handballs through the middle of the park is still the Giants game plan, they have been executing with perfection in recent weeks causing opponents to crater defensively, opening up gaps for the forwards to lead into.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
8-8	7-9	7-6	3-0

GWS Giants Team News

A long injury list for the Giants but some good news on the horizon, Jesse Hogan will need to get through training but could suit up following a foot injury. Jack Buckley is in doubt with his own foot injury. Lachie Whitfield has been progressing through concussion protocols and should be good to go save any setback.

GWS Giants Team List

B: C.Idun, L.Aleer, H.Himmelberg

HB: L.Whitfield, J.Buckley, L.Ash

C: R.Angwin, T.Bedford, J.Kelly

HF: X.O’Halloran, A.Cadman, D.Jones

F: J.Riccardi, J.Hogan, T.Greene - C

FOLL: K.Briggs, F.Callaghan, T.Green

I/C: J.Fonti, C.Brown, H.Rowston, J.Stringer, H.Thomas

EMG: J.Leake, J.Wehr, T.McMullin

In: - L.Whitfield, J.Hogan

Out: - J.Leake (Omitted), M.Gruzewski (Omitted)

Geelong Cats Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
4-1	3-2	2-3

Geelong returned to action last weekend following their bye with a resounding 124-52 win over the Richmond Tigers which keeps them in 4th on the ladder on equal wins with 3 other teams around them. They have the 4th best percentage in the league which holds them in good stead through the congestion.

Jeremy Cameron is delivering up top, averaging 3.3 goals per game this season on 60% accuracy. New recruit Bailey Smith has spent some time on the sidelines but is otherwise averaging 32 disposals per game on ball with the rest of the crew doing their part to help out.

The Cats are 11-5 ATS this season and have the highest ranked Tackles Inside 50 number pointing to increased forward pressure without the ball.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
11-5	8-8	6-4	5-1

Geelong Cats Team News

Some setbacks to veterans hopeful of returning to the AFL in Mitch Duncan and Cam Guthrie which will see them need to wait a little longer. Oi Wiltshire and Jhye Clark are both in concussion protocol.

Sam De Koning is a chance to return from shoulder surgery ahead of schedule.

Geelong Cats Team List

B: T.Stewart, J.Henry, C.O’Sullivan

HB: L.Humphries, M.O’Connor, Z.Guthrie

C: M.Blicavs, M.Holmes, O.Dempsey

HF: B.Close, S.Mannagh, G.Miers

F: P.Dangerfield - C, J.Cameron, S.Neale

FOLL: R.Stanley, T.Atkins, B.Smith

I/C: G.Stevens, O.Mullin, O.Henry, J.Martin, J.Bowes

EMG: J.Bews, T.Stengle, M.Knevitt

In: - B.Smith

Out: - M.Duncan (Injured)

GWS Giants vs Geelong Cats AFL 2025 Round 18 FAQ’s

How to watch GWS Giants vs Geelong Cats AFL 2025 Round 18?

You can watch the GWS Giants vs Geelong Cats AFL 2025 Round 18 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to GWS Giants vs Geelong Cats AFL 2025 Round 18?

To buy tickets to the GWS Giants vs Geelong Cats AFL 2025 Round 18 game check the AFL website or the official GWS Giants site.

Verdict

Greater Western Sydney Giants v Geelong Cats

GWS 1-39

Winning Margin

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GWS 1-12

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