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Hawthorn Hawks vs Geelong Cats AFL Round 4 Tips - Cats the value in Easter Monday blockbuster

Adam Cusworth

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Last updated: Thu 02 Apr 2026 22:42

Adam Cusworth 02 Apr 2026

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The game will be played at the Melbourne Cricket Ground on Monday, with the bounce at 3:15 PM (AEDT)
Can the Hawks snap losing streak in head to head matches against their arch rivals?
Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet

Hawthorn Hawks vs Geelong Cats AFL Round 4 Tips

Hawthorn Hawks vs Geelong Cats, Round 4 2026 - Expert Prediction

Hawthorn Hawks vs Geelong Cats, Round 4 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head Stats
Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis & Team News
Hawthorn Hawks Team News
Hawthorn Hawks Team List
Geelong Cats Form Analysis & Team News
Geelong Cats Team News
Geelong Cats Team List

Geelong are set to pour on the pain once again in another high-scoring and close contest when they take on their arch-rivals, Hawthorn, in the Easter Monday MCG blockbuster.

Both sides come into the match with very similar form, having lost their respective Opening Round matches when interstate, before rebounding with two wins at home.

Hawthorn have won two straight at the MCG, including a 17-point win over Sydney back in Round 2. They have since had the bye and come into this fresh.

Against the Swans, the Hawks overturned a 20-point deficit, with key contributions in all areas of the ground. Tom Barrass was a rock of gibraltar in defence, while Jai Newcombe (31 disposals) led the midfield and Jack Gunston amongst the goals again. continuing. But they will need to make sure they finish off after inaccuracy plagued them in the 14.15 to 13.4 scoreline.

But it is the Cats’ dominance in this matchup, combined with their midfield strength and variety of scoring options, that give them the edge despite Hawthorn’s strong recent form.

Geelong’s path to victory is built on midfield control and contest dominance, which was evident in their win over Adelaide where they recorded 159-127 contested possessions and 67-45 inside 50s.

Expect them to control territory through clearances and centre clearances, allowing their forward mix of Jeremy Cameron, Shannon Neale, Ollie Dempsey and Jack Martin to capitalise. Bailey Smith is central to this, coming off 40 disposals and previously recording 36 disposals against Hawthorn in the Preliminary Final.

Take Geelong in the head to head, while the total points ‘over’ market is also in play given both sides’ scoring trends at the MCG. Bailey Smith is a lock for 30+ disposals, while 2+ goals are on the cards for big Mabior Chol from the Hawks.

Geelong have won the past five matches between the two sides, including the Preliminary Final last season
Both sides have averaged over 100 points at the MCG in their past five matches at the venue.
Bailey Smith had 36 disposals in the Preliminary Final against Hawthorn
Mabior Chol has kicked nine goals from his past four matches against the Cats

Head to Head Stats

Geelong have won the past five meetings between the two sides, including a 30-point victory in last season’s Preliminary Final, and have won seven of the past eight clashes since 2020.

That Preliminary Final highlighted a clear midfield gap, with Geelong winning clearances 50-33, centre clearances 20-5 and inside 50s 66-40. Patrick Dangerfield (31 disposals, three goals) and Bailey Smith (36 disposals) dominated, while Jeremy Cameron has kicked 11 goals in his past four against Hawthorn and Mabior Chol has kicked nine in his past four against Geelong.

Hawthorn Hawks Form Analysis & Team News

Hawthorn sit at 2-1 in 2026, rebounding from a 27-point Opening Round loss to GWS with consecutive MCG wins over Essendon (62 points) and Sydney (17 points). Their trajectory is upward, particularly at the MCG where they have looked far more settled and effective.

Their strengths are built on a high-pressure, intensity-driven game style, with strong intercept marking and forward-half territory control. They consistently generate inside 50 opportunities, while Jack Gunston (13 goals in three games), Jai Newcombe (31 disposals last match) and Nick Watson (seven goals this season) provide scoreboard impact and midfield drive.

There is also a reliance on sustained intensity — when pressure drops, they become vulnerable, and their contested possession wins do not always reflect on the scoreboard.

Hawthorn Hawks Team News

Hawthorn are unlikely to make major changes following consecutive wins, with no significant new injury concerns reported from last round. Their current structure has held up well, particularly defensively and through pressure.

Finn Maginness is pushing for selection after strong VFL form and could come into consideration, adding midfield depth and defensive flexibility if selected.

Hawthorn Hawks Team List

Team list yet to be released.

Geelong Cats Form Analysis & Team News

Geelong also sit at 2-1, recovering from a 56-point Opening Round loss to Gold Coast with wins over Fremantle (10 points) and Adelaide (eight points). Their form trajectory is improving, particularly through midfield performance and system execution.

Their key strength lies in a highly structured, system-driven game built around contest dominance and controlled ball movement. Against Adelaide, they recorded 159-127 contested possessions and 67-45 inside 50s, with Bailey Smith (40 disposals) and Max Holmes (27) leading the way, while Jack Martin (three goals) and Ollie Dempsey (two) benefited from strong supply.

Their main vulnerability is tied to game speed and early-season conditioning, with faster tempo increasing turnover risk and injury exposure. Their selection philosophy also prioritises fitness over reputation, meaning key players may be managed, which can impact continuity.

Geelong Cats Team News

Patrick Dangerfield missed the Crows match and will be assessed during the week. His presence or absence will have a key bearing on this result. Geelong have a stack of depth in the ranks that was evident in the 47-point win over Box Hill in the VFL last weekend.

Jack Bowes (39 disposals) and James Worpel (25 disposals) have pressed strong cases for inclusion through VFL performance. Brad Close was quiet after being dropped, while Tyson Stengle remains one to monitor for updates.

Geelong Cats Team List

Team list yet to be released.

Hawthorn Hawks vs Geelong Cats AFL 2026 Round 4 FAQ’s

How to watch Hawthorn Hawks vs Geelong Cats AFL 2026 Round 4?

You can watch the Hawthorn Hawks vs Geelong Cats AFL 2026 Round 4 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Hawthorn Hawks vs Geelong Cats AFL 2026 Round 4?

To buy tickets to the Hawthorn Hawks vs Geelong Cats AFL 2026 Round 4 game check the AFL website or the official Hawthorn Hawks / Geelong Cats sites.

Verdict

Hawthorn Hawks v Geelong Cats

Geelong to win, with midfield dominance and forward variety proving decisive in a high-scoring game, with the over, Bailey Smith 30+ disposals and Mabior Chol 2+ goals key betting angles.

Geelong

Match Winner

$2.50 - 1 Unit

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