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Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions AFL Tips - Geelong to be too good in battle of heavyweights

Adam Cusworth

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Last updated: Thu 19 Jun 2025 11:38

Adam Cusworth 19 Jun 2025

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Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions expert predictions for Friday’s Round 15 AFL game
The game will be played at GMHBA Stadium, with the bounce at 7:40 PM (AEST)
Can the Cats continue their impressive recent run with victory over the premiers?
Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet

Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions AFL Tips

Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions, Round 15 2025 - Expert Prediction

Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions, Round 15 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Geelong Cats Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Geelong Cats Team News
Geelong Cats Team List
Brisbane Lions Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Brisbane Lions Team News
Brisbane Lions Team List

Will the real Brisbane Lions stand up or will it be the Geelong that continue with their impressive recent run?

The Lions have been wavering in the last six weeks with just two wins and a draw in that period. Inaccuracy has cost them in the past fortnight and they come off an 11-point loss to GWS, despite registering nine more scoring shots in the 13.18 to 17.5 scoreline.

Geelong have been red-hot in that period, coming in with five successive wins. They demolished Essendon in Round 14 by 91-points and have edged clear of 3rd placed Brisbane on the ladder, sitting in 2nd spot at the end of Round 14.

Tough to tip against the home side, who have not lost to Brisbane at the venue since 2003. Six of their past eight wins this year have fallen in the 1-39 point range and that looks like the play for this fixture. Take Shannon Neale for the 2+ goals. Dayne Zorko looks solid for the 25+ disposals from the back-half for Brisbane.

Brisbane have not beaten Geelong at GMHBA Stadium since 2003.
Shannon Neale has kicked 10 goals in his past four matches, he was subbed out early in one of those
Dayne Zorko has averaged 28 disposals in his past three matches against Geelong
Six of Geelong’s past eight wins have been by less than 39.5 points.

Head to Head

Brisbane and Geelong have met already this season with the Round 3 GABBA encounter going the way of the Lions by nine points. Brisbane were 10-point victors in a classic Preliminary Final at the MCG last season.

The two sides have not met at GMHBA Stadium since Round 4 in 2022, a 10-point victory to the Cats. Geelong have won their past 13 against the Lions at the venue, a sequence that stretches back to 2003.

Geelong Cats Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
5-0	4-1	3-2

Geelong have won five matches in succession with those coming at an average margin of 52 points. They have kicked over 100 points in five of their past six. In Round 13 they managed just 61 points in the 24 point win over Gold Coast but that was in wet conditions that were not conducive to scoring.

Jeremy Cameron has kicked 24 goals in his past five matches, while Shannon Neale and Tyson Stengle are both going at 2+ goals per game in that period.

Bailey Smith had 41 disposals against Essendon, while Max Holmes had 36. Smith has had 30+ in his past six matches. Holmes has averaged 34 in his past four.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
10-4	8-6	6-4	4-0

Geelong Cats Team News

Sam De Koning was subbed out with a shoulder injury in the big win over Essendon and will be assessed at training. Jack Bowes is expected to be available to return from injury.

Geelong Cats Team List

B: C.O’Sullivan, J.Henry, M.Blicavs

HB: T.Stewart, Z.Guthrie, M.O’Connor

C: B.Close, M.Holmes, O.Dempsey

HF: G.Miers, S.Mannagh, T.Stengle

F: P.Dangerfield - C, J.Cameron, S.Neale

FOLL: R.Stanley, B.Smith, T.Atkins

I/C: J.Martin, L.Humphries, O.Henry, O.Mullin, M.Duncan

EMG: J.Bews, J.Bowes, T.Clohesy

In: - O.Henry

Out: - S.De Koning (Injured)

Brisbane Lions Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
2-3	2-3	2-3

Brisbane have lost three of their past five matches and have been unconvincing in the majority of those matches. They went down by five points to Adelaide prior to their loss over GWS.

The Lions are 3rd for disposals and inside 50s, while they are 6th for scoring. But they are giving their opposition plenty of chances, ranking 16th for fewest inside 50s conceded and 11th for fewest points conceded. Inaccuracy has cost them in the past two weeks- producing more scoring shots than their opposition, yet coming away with a loss.

Logan Morris booted five goals against GWS and has kicked 12 from his past five matches. Hugh McCluggage, Dayne Zorko and Lachie Neale all had 25+ disposals against the Giants. That trio, as well as Will Ashcroft, are averaging 25+ this season.

2025 Betting Trends

ATS	Over/Under	1-39	40+
5-9	5-9	8-3	1-1

Brisbane Lions Team News

Brisbane lose their key defender, Jack Payne, to a season ending knee injury. Darcy Gardiner and Tom Doedee are among the possible replacements.

Brisbane Lions Team List

B: D.Zorko, D.Gardiner, R.Lester

HB: N.Answerth, H.Andrews, B.Starcevich

C: J.Fletcher, H.McCluggage, J.Berry

HF: C.Cameron, E.Hipwood, W.Ashcroft

F: C.Rayner, L.Morris, Z.Bailey

FOLL: D.Fort, J.Dunkley, L.Neale - C

I/C: K.Lohmann, L.Ashcroft, S.Day, W.McLachlan, D.Wilmot

EMG: T.Gallop, B.Reville, O.McInerney

In: - D.Gardiner, W.McLachlan

Out: - J.Payne (Injured), C.Ah Chee (Illness)

Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Round 15 FAQ’s

You can watch the Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Round 15 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchAFL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Round 15?

To buy tickets to the Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions AFL 2025 Round 15 game check the AFL website or the official Geelong Cats site.

Verdict

Geelong Cats v Brisbane Lions

Take Geelong in the 1-39 bracket. Neale amongst the goals for the home side, Zorko to provide rebound for the Lions

Geelong 1-39

Winning Margin 1-39

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