Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan 2 Tips & Prediction - Dvalishvili to retain title at UFC 323

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Last updated: Thu. 04 Dec. 2025 01:22

Bets.com.au Staff 04 Dec. 2025

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Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan 2 predictions for Saturday's UFC 323 fight
Dvalishvili aiming for fourth successful title defence this year
Dvalishvili is on a 14-fight winning streak
Dvalishvili landed 11 takedowns in his first fight vs Yan
The fight is scheduled to start around 3.20pm AEDT on Sunday December 7

Expired

Merab Dvalishvili (Photo by Getty Images)

Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan 2 Tips & Prediction

Merab Dvalishvili has been nothing short of unstoppable and that dominance looks set to continue when he meets Petr Yan in a highly anticipated rematch at UFC 323 in Las Vegas.

The reigning UFC bantamweight champion has not only cleaned out the division, but he’s now chasing history: a fourth successful title defence in one calendar year.

Merab Dvalishvili Form & Analysis

Dvalishvili enters the Octagon riding a 14-fight win streak, stretching back to 2018. Since dethroning Sean O’Malley at UFC 306 last September, the Georgian has defended his title against Umar Nurmagomedov, O’Malley (again) and Cory Sandhagen, showing he can outwork anyone on the roster.

His numbers tell the story:

16 of 21 wins have come via decision.
Averages 6.4 takedowns per 15 minutes — an elite mark.
Landed 11 takedowns in his first fight with Yan.
Holds the UFC record for most takedown attempts in a fight (49 vs Yan).

That grinding wrestling style has made him almost impossible to stop. Against Petr Yan in their first meeting, Dvalishvili’s relentless pressure neutralised the Russian’s elite boxing, as he stormed to a dominant 50-45 unanimous decision win, out-landing Yan 202 to 87 in total strikes.

Petr Yan Form & Analysis

To his credit, Yan (19-5) has steadied the ship since that loss, piecing together three straight decision wins over Song Yadong, Deiveson Figueiredo and Marcus McGhee. But those performances have yet to prove that he’s closed the gap on the champion.

Yan’s offensive output remains sharp, landing 5.12 significant strikes per minute — but he’s struggled to impose himself against elite grapplers. Despite boasting an 85% takedown defence rate, Dvalishvili shredded that statistic in their first fight, repeatedly grounding him with ease.

Yan has had moments of bad luck over the years - a DQ loss to Aljamain Sterling, a controversial split decision to Sean O’Malley - but even his best performances haven’t matched the sheer pace and pressure that Dvalishvili brings.

Tactical Breakdown

The blueprint for Dvalishvili’s victory is already written. Expect the same formula: relentless takedowns, positional control and overwhelming cardio. “The Machine” doesn’t just shoot early - he shoots constantly.

If Yan manages to stay upright for long spells, his boxing could keep things interesting. He’s technically sharper on the feet, but that advantage disappears once Dvalishvili closes the distance. Even with Yan’s improved conditioning, it’s hard to imagine a path to victory that doesn’t involve an unlikely knockout.

Verdict

Merab Dvalishvili v Petr Yan 2

Merab Dvalishvili’s combination of durability, volume and wrestling mastery makes him one of the most reliable champions on the UFC roster right now. Yan is tough, skilled and motivated - but stylistically, this matchup remains a nightmare.

Dvalishvili is too disciplined to get caught and too relentless to be denied. Don’t expect fireworks, expect domination.

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