Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van Tips & Prediction - Pantoja to defend on the mat at UFC 323

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Last updated: Thu 04 Dec 2025 01:42

Bets.com.au Staff 04 Dec 2025

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Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van predictions for Saturday's UFC 323 fight
Pantoja is on an eight-fight winning streak
Ten of Pantoja's last 12 wins have come via submission
The fight is scheduled to start around 3.00pm AEDT on Sunday December 7

Expired

Alexandre Pantoja (Photo by Getty Images)

Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van Tips & Prediction

Alexandre Pantoja looks set to extend his dominant reign over the flyweight division when he faces rising contender Joshua Van in the co-main event at UFC 323.

The Brazilian champion has been flawless over the past few years and with his trademark jiu-jitsu pressure, he’s tipped to defend his title via submission once again.

Alexandre Pantoja Form & Analysis

The 35-year-old Brazilian has become the gold standard at flyweight, boasting a 30-5 record and an eight-fight win streak that stretches back to 2020. Since capturing the belt with a split-decision win over Brandon Moreno in July 2023, Pantoja has defended it four times, beating Brandon Royval twice, Steve Erceg, Kai Asakura and most recently submitting Kai Kara-France in June.

Pantoja’s statistical profile reads like a champion’s blueprint:

10 of his last 12 wins have come by submission.
20 of 30 career victories have ended inside the distance.
Averages 2.80 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands 4.36 significant strikes per minute.
Has landed 15 combined takedowns in his last three fights.

A Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt with elite top control, Pantoja’s style suffocates opponents. Once he establishes position, he transitions seamlessly, either threatening chokes or forcing scrambles that drain opponents’ energy and confidence. Against another aggressive striker in Van, that grappling dominance is expected to be the difference.

Joshua Van Form & Analysis

Van may only be 24, but he’s made a major statement since joining the UFC in 2023. The Burmese-born contender carries a record of 15-2 with a fan-friendly style built on volume and pressure. He’s won five straight fights, including impressive victories over Rei Tsuruya, Bruno Silva and Brandon Royval.

Van’s numbers are impressive:

Lands 8.86 significant strikes per minute - more than double Pantoja’s output.
Connects at 56% striking accuracy.
Owns seven career knockouts, most via crisp combinations rather than one-punch power.

But as explosive as he is on the feet, Van’s previous two defeats came by stoppage, exposing potential vulnerabilities when fights hit the mat. Against a grappler as clinical as Pantoja, that’s a dangerous gap.

Tactical Breakdown

Expect Van to start fast, looking to establish distance and box from range. His hand speed and volume could trouble Pantoja early, especially if the champion gives him too much space. But Pantoja’s strength lies in his ability to weather that storm, close the gap and smother opponents once he gets a hold of them.

If the fight hits the ground - and it likely will - Pantoja’s submission instincts take over. His body control and positional patience are elite and he’s proven he can finish world-class opponents once they give up their back.

Verdict

Alexandre Pantoja v Joshua Van

Van is a live underdog with elite potential, but this matchup comes too soon. Pantoja’s experience, grappling IQ and submission precision should once again carry him to victory.

The champion has mastered the art of making opponents fight his fight - and on the mat, there’s simply no escaping “The Cannibal.”

Pantoja Win

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