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Pacific Championships 2025 Preview & Predictions: Who Rules the Pacific?

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Tue 14 Oct 2025 10:26

Jeremy Darke 14 Oct 2025

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The 2025 Pacific Championships sees close competition among island nations and traditional powerhouses.
Samoa expected to win the Cup, while PNG favored in the Bowl.
New Zealand vs PNG predicted for Cup v Bowl playoff.

Pacific Championships 2025 Preview & Predictions

Pacific Championships 2025 Preview – Who Rules the Pacific?

The Pacific Championships return in 2025 and the gap between traditional powerhouses and the island nations has never been smaller.

Pacific Championships 2025 Preview – Who Rules the Pacific?
The Cup: New Zealand, Samoa & Tonga
The Bowl: PNG, Fiji & Cook Islands
The Qualifier – Cup v Bowl Playoff
Final Word

With Australia focusing on the Ashes series against England, the stage belongs to New Zealand, Samoa, Tonga, PNG, Fiji, and the Cook Islands.

From the stacked Cup division to the up-and-coming Bowl, the tournament is poised to showcase not just skill, but pride and identity across every nation.

The Cup: New Zealand, Samoa & Tonga

Are the Kiwis Still the Benchmark?

On paper, New Zealand remain favourites a deep squad led by James Fisher-Harris, Moses Leota, and Joseph Tapine. But with Jahrome Hughes missing, they’ll rely on Kieran Foran and Dylan Brown in the halves.

Foran’s return brings leadership but also questions of durability. His game management is crucial, yet the speed and unpredictability of Samoa and Tonga could expose the Kiwis’ slower spine.

The Kiwis’ forward pack is elite, their lowest level is still very high except maybe in the halves.

Samoa’s Penrith Connection

Samoa’s squad looks every bit a contender. The backline reads like a Penrith reunion: Brian To’o, Stephen Crichton, Taylan May, Isaac Tago, and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck returning at fullback.

With Jarome Luai and Blaize Talagi (the next Penrith product) in the halves, Samoa’s attacking flair will test anyone. Add Payne Haas, Junior Paulo, and Terrell May up front, and they boast perhaps the best combination of power and speed in the tournament.

Their challenge? Turning potential into polish. Luai will need to manage the game while unleashing the talent around him.

Tonga’s Firepower & Katoa’s Moment

Tonga, finalists last year, are loaded again. Isaiah Katoa could be the breakout star, his short kicking game and control under pressure might be the difference.

Behind him, Addin Fonua-Blake, Jason Taumalolo, Daniel Tupou, and Tolu Koula give Tonga a lineup bursting with NRL pedigree. If Katoa delivers, Tonga have the balance to win the Cup.

Predictions – The Cup

Round 1: Samoa to upset the Kiwis in Auckland.

Round 2: Tonga to edge Samoa in a high-scoring thriller.

Round 3: Tonga to defeat New Zealand and book their spot in the final.

Final Prediction: Samoa defeat Tonga at Commbank Stadium to claim the 2025 Pacific Championships Cup, their first title since the restructured format began.

The Bowl: PNG, Fiji & Cook Islands

Papua New Guinea – Built for Battle

The Kumuls continue to evolve under Jason Demetriou, carrying momentum from their strong Prime Minister’s XIII performance against Australia.

With Lachlan Lam (41 try assists in the Super League) and Nene Macdonald leading the attack, PNG combine experience with consistency.

Demetriou’s continuity: The same core group playing together for multiple years is paying off. Add Alex Johnston’s leadership and the energy of players like Jacob Alick and Kyle Laybutt, and PNG look primed to defend their Bowl crown.

Fiji – Electric and Unpredictable

Fiji’s strength lies in their backline. Jahream Bula, Sunia Taruva, Waqa Blake headline an explosive group, while the Fainu brothers provide aggression through the middle.

They’ll need composure from halves Brandon Wakeham and Lanyan, but if their ball security improves, Fiji could push PNG all the way. Their speed out wide will trouble every defence in this group.

Cook Islands – Heart Over Hype

The Cook Islands arrive with heart and hunger. Brad Takairangi captains a side filled with familiar NRL faces KL Iro, Murata Niukore, Brendan Piakura, and Mason Teague.

They may not have the same depth as PNG or Fiji, but they’re fitter, sharper, and targeting the tournament as vital preparation for World Cup qualification later this year.

Expect Iro to feature prominently, his finishing ability could make him the tournament’s top try-scorer.

Predictions – The Bowl

Round 1: Fiji to outscore Cook Islands in a shootout.

Round 2: PNG to overpower Fiji in a statement win.

Round 3: PNG to go undefeated, confirming their rise as the Pacific’s next powerhouse.

The Qualifier – Cup v Bowl Playoff

If predictions hold, PNG will face New Zealand in the promotion playoff. The Kiwis’ depth might hold firm, but PNG’s cohesion gives them a puncher’s chance.

You’d back New Zealand with your wallet, but PNG are set to make some waves.

Final Word

The Pacific Championships have grown from a development comp into a showcase of the world’s most exciting rugby league talent.

Samoa’s Penrith core, Tonga’s power, and PNG’s rise mean there’s no easy prediction. Every nation enters with belief and that’s exactly what makes this tournament unmissable.