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New Zealand Kiwis vs Toa Samoa Pacific Championships Tips - Samoa break the duck & upset the Kiwis

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Wed 15 Oct 2025 13:04

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Jeremy Darke 15 Oct 2025

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New Zealand Kiwis vs Toa Samoa expert predictions for Sunday’s Pacific Championships game
Kick off is at 4:05 PM (AEST) at Go Media Stadium
Samoa haven't beaten New Zealand in the international rugby league era.
New Zealand halves pairing their biggest concern

New Zealand Kiwis vs Toa Samoa Pacific Championships Tips

New Zealand Kiwis vs Toa Samoa, Pacific Championships 2025 - Expert Prediction

Samoa will defy history and form and get an emphatic victory over New Zealand in their opening match of the 2025 Pacific Championships.

New Zealand Kiwis vs Toa Samoa, Pacific Championships 2025 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
New Zealand Kiwis Form Analysis
New Zealand Kiwis Team News
New Zealand Kiwis Team List
Toa Samoa Form Analysis
Toa Samoa Team News
Toa Samoa Team List
New Zealand Kiwis vs Toa Samoa 2025 Pacific Championships FAQ’s

The numbers don’t look good for Samoa when facing New Zealand. The head to head record of 0-5 and the 50-0 loss last time they met, compiled by a current 0-5 record as a nation dating back to their loss to Australia in the 2022 World Cup Final in England.

So, why back them, well, their team looks nothing like the squad they took to England where they went 0-2 last year and they are facing New Zealand, albeit with all their class, have a halves combination I do not feel strongly about. Kieren Foran and Dylan Brown haven’t had the best of NRL seasons and will need to lead the Kiwis in a tournament where they are trying to regain confidence from last year’s Pac Champ debacle.

I see both teams' backline featuring heavily but have more confidence in what Samoa can do to help out in the forward battle more so than why the Kiwis can.

There will be chances for both sides so I am jumping on the high over on the game total of 47.5 and do expect this one to be relatively close with a 24-30 type scoreline. A good cover bet could definitely be either team 1-12, but you have pick sides here cause that is what the tournament is all about.

As I said there will be tries and no one has been more prolific in an international debut than Casey McLean, who bagged 4 against PNG for New Zealand in the Qualifying Final last year. The 19-year-old will grab another in his second cap for the kiwis to go along with 16 tries he scored for Penrith this season.

New Zealand lost their last match played at GoMedia Stadium 25-24 against Tonga
There have been 50 points or more scored in the last 4 games Samoa have featured in.
There have been 50 or more points scored in 3 of 5 matches between New Zealand and Samoa.
Casey McLean scored 4 tries on debut in his only game for New Zealand.

Head to Head

The head-to-to-head statistics cannot be more one-sided with New Zealand beating Samoa in all 5 matches played between the two nations since 2010.

The last time they met Jamayne Isaako and Ronald Mulitalo both scored a double with the Kiwis running away with a 50-0 victory in the 2023 Pacific Championships.

New Zealand Kiwis Form Analysis

The 2024 Pacific Championships were not pretty for the Kiwis, losing 22-10 to Australia and getting upset 24-25 by the boot of Isaiya Katoa in a disappointing loss to Tonga. New Zealand did save face and their place in the Pacific Cup division with a 54-12 drubbing of PNG in the Qualifying Final but the tournament as a whole was underwhelming.

The 2023 Pacific Championships was a different story winning the tournament with a 30-0 victory over Australia. That is why the performance in 2024 hit harder.

New Zealand will want to build their confidence again and recapture their 2023 form and also find the spark that they had in the 2022 World Cup where they went through the undefeated until a 2-point loss to Australia in the semis.

New Zealand Kiwis Team News

Dylan Brown and Kieran Foran will pair in the halves with Jahrome Hughes missing the Pac Champs through injury.

Jeremy Marshall-King gets the start at hooker with Phoenix Crossland playing the utility role. Erin Clark will also feature off the bench along with Nelson Asofa-Solomona who was preferred over Xavier Willison.

New Zealand Kiwis Team List

1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad

2. Jamayne Isaako

3. Matt Timoko

4. Casey McLean

5. Ronaldo Mulitalo

6. Dylan Brown

7. Kieran Foran

8. James Fisher-Harris

9. Jeremy Marshall-King

10. Moses Leota

11. Briton Nikora

12. Isaiah Papali'i

13. Joseph Tapine

Interchange

14. Phoenix Crossland

15. Naufahu Whyte

16. Erin Clark

17. Nelson Asofa-Solomona

Reserves

18. Xavier Willison

19. Keano Kini

20. Scott Sorensen

21. Sebastian Kris

Toa Samoa Form Analysis

It was an unsuccessful trip to the U.K for Samoa in 2024, losing both games to England in almost identical fashion, 34-18 and 34-16.

To be honest there is not a lot of form knowledge you can take out of that trip with the Samoan team looking very different in the 2025 Pacific Championships compared to the team that toured England.

The most significant combination that is set to flourish this year is between Jarome Luai and Blaize Talagi who were paired together in the second game against the Poms. A year in the Penrith system for Talagi should see his chemistry with Luai become endothermic.

Toa Samoa Team News

Roger Tuivasa-Sheck will revert to fullback for Samoa with experience potentially proving vital for Samoa throughout the tournament.

The backline is star-studded, however, Taylan May was originally expected to feature but is not named anywhere on the list. Brian To’o and Murray Taulagi will feature on the wings with Izack Tago and Deine Mariner in the centres.

Blaize Talagi and Jarome Luai will lead the Samoans in the halves, while Payne Haas and veteran Josh Papalii will lead a pack that will frighten any opposition.

It has been a long time since Samoa won an international game, dating back to their semifinal victory in the 2022 Rugby World Cup against England. Australia won the tournament and Samoa have since then lost 5 consecutive matches.

Toa Samoa Team List

1. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck

2. Murray Taulagi

3. Izack Tago

4. Deine Mariner

5. Brian To'o

6. Blaize Talagi

7. Jarome Luai

8. Josh Papalii

9. Jazz Tevaga

10. Payne Haas

11. Jeremiah Nanai

12. Jaydn Su'A

13. Junior Paulo

Interchange

14. Chanel Harris-Tavita

15. Simi Sasagi

16. Terrell May

17. Francis Molo

Reserves

18. Benaiah Ioelu

19. Ata Mariota

20. Clayton Faulalo

21. Lyhkan King-Togia

New Zealand Kiwis vs Toa Samoa 2025 Pacific Championships FAQ’s

How to watch New Zealand Kiwis vs Toa Samoa 2025 Pacific Championships?

You can watch the New Zealand Kiwis vs Toa Samoa 2025 Pacific Championships game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the Watch app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to New Zealand Kiwis vs Toa Samoa 2025 Pacific Championships?

To buy tickets to the New Zealand Kiwis vs Toa Samoa 2025 Pacific Championships game check the website or the official NRL site.

Verdict

New Zealand Kiwis v Toa Samoa

Samoa will get the upset in a high scoring encounter that will have a game total of over 47.5 points. Casey McLean will grab his fifth try in 2 games for New Zealand.

Samoa

Money Line

$2.15 - 3 Units

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Over 47.5

Game Total

$1.91 - 2 Units

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