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New Zealand Kiwis vs Toa Samoa Pacific Championships Final Tips - Kiwis to edge Samoa again for the trophy

andrew-hendrie
Editor
Last updated: Thu 06 Nov 2025 05:42

The 2025 Pacific Championships Final sees the New Zealand Kiwis facing Toa Samoa in an anticipated clash at CommBank Stadium. With a history of close contests, the Kiwis have the upper hand with a 6-0 record against Samoa, having narrowly defeated them 24-18 in the tournament's opening. Key to New Zealand's attack is Dylan Brown's outstanding form, alongside Kieran Foran, providing a balanced offense. Despite Samoa's strong talent, their inconsistency in tight matches favors the Kiwis for a likely victory.

Andrew Hendrie 06 Nov 2025
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  • New Zealand Kiwis vs Toa Samoa predictions for Sunday's Pacific Championships final
  • New Zealand have a dominant 6-0 record over Samoa in their international history
  • Samoa have lost six of their last seven games
  • Kiwis tipped for a 1-12 victory, with Casey McLean extending his prolific start to Test match footy by crossing for another four-pointer
  • The game is scheduled for kick off at 4.05pm AEDT on Sunday November 9 at CommBank Stadium
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New Zealand Samoa
New Zealand & Samoa clash in the final on Sunday (Photo by Getty Images)


New Zealand Kiwis vs Toa Samoa, Pacific Championships Final 2025 - Expert Prediction


It's shaping as an unmissable contest as New Zealand and Samoa battle it out for the 2025 Pacific Championships trophy on Sunday afternoon at CommBank Stadium.

  • New Zealand Kiwis vs Toa Samoa, Pacific Championships Final 2025 - Expert Prediction
  • Head To Head
  • New Zealand Kiwis Form Analysis
  • New Zealand Kiwis Team News
  • Toa Samoa Form Analysis
  • Toa Samoa Team News
After squaring off in the opening match of the competition and after both crushing Tonga, these two sides will once again clash, this time with the silverware on the line.

Not much separated the teams in that aforementioned showdown, with the Kiwis edging it 24-18 as Dylan Brown scored the match-winner with five minutes remaining. There were some concerns over the New Zealand halves coming into the tournament, but Brown has arguably been the best player over the last month, scoring three tries in his two appearances and repeatedly looking dangerous as he takes the line on - something Newcastle Knights fans are no doubt excited about. Brown's combination with the experienced Kieran Foran has provided the Kiwis with a necessary balance in attack, allowing their hulking forwards and electric outside backs to shine.

Samoa are also obviously filled with electric talent and massive size across the field as well, but the fact remains that they are 0-6 against New Zealand and were on a six-match losing streak before toppling Tonga last weekend. Samoa will need Payne Haas to be operating at the peak of his powers through the middle, while Jarome Luai will also need a blinder in the halves.

I don't think this will be a blowout, but have to back the Kiwis in a close one again. They look a slightly more polished and cohesive side, while Samoa aren't used to winning tight games. Casey McLean is on an extraordinary tryscoring run to begin his international career, rivalling some of the all-time greats, so the Kiwis winger is the best bet to cross the line.

  • New Zealand have won all six previous meetings between the pair
  • New Zealand beat Samoa 24-18 in the opening match of the Pacific Championships
  • Samoa have lost six of their last seven games
  • Casey McLean has scored seven tries in his three international appearances - including a double vs Samoa earlier in the competition

Head To Head


As mentioned, New Zealand hold a dominant 6-0 record over Samoa in their international history, including a 24-18 triumph earlier in the Pacific Championships. Scores were level heading into the last 10 minutes before Brown crossed for the winning try.

New Zealand Kiwis Form Analysis


Most of the talk pre-tournament was that of Samoa and Tonga closing the gap in the international arena - and you can bet your bottom dollar the Kiwis took notice and have been extra driven and motivated to perform.

New Zealand came out of the blocks firing against Samoa in their opening game as Casey McLean crossed for a double, further cementing himself as one of the best young backline players in the game.

Dylan Brown has been playing his best footy of the year with the Kiwis and his spark and creative brilliance in halves has proven the difference.

The incoming Knight was also instrumental in New Zealand's crushing 40-14 victory over Tonga, scoring a double and consistently troubling the line.

New Zealand Kiwis Team News


Keano Kini will once again start at fullback as he did last week for New Zealand in their reshuffled backline, with McLean again on the wing. Josiah Karapani Zach Dockar-Clay are new faces on the reserve list.

1. Keano Kini
2. Jamayne Isaako
3. Matthew Timoko
4. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
5. Casey McLean
6. Dylan Brown
7. Kieran Foran
8. James Fisher-Harris
9. Phoenix Crossland
10. Moses Leota
11. Briton Nikora
12. Isaiah Papali’i
13. Joseph Tapine

Interchange
14. Te Maire Martin
15. Naufahu Whyte
16. Erin Clark
17. Xavier Willison

Reserves
18. Scott Sorensen
19. Zach Dockar-Clay
20. Josiah Karapani

Toa Samoa Form Analysis


Samoa hung tough with New Zealand in the opening game, but their joy at levelling the scores in the second-half was short-lived as they conceded what was ultimately the match-winner in the 74th minute.

Payne Haas produced another herculean effort, making 52 tackles and running for 182 metres.

Poor errors and a high missed tackle count (47) cost Samoa, but they managed to bounce back in their following match, demolishing Tonga 34-6. Still, the Samoan side missed 40 tackles and completed just 32 of 41 sets, so their discipline remains a work in progress.

Roger Tuivasa-Sheck was on fire, racking up a staggering 296 metres off 28 carries, while Jeremiah Nanai crossed for a double.

Toa Samoa Team News


Jaydn Su’A returns from a concussion and will replace Nanai, who is sidelined with a shoulder injury.

Jazz Tevaga is back in the starting side after coming off the bench last week, with Benaiah Ioelu going back to the pine.

1. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck
2. Brian To’o
3. Izack Tago
4. Deine Mariner
5. Murray Taulagi
6. Blaize Talagi
7. Jarome Luai
8. Francis Molo
9. Jazz Tevaga
10. Payne Haas
11. Jaydn Su’A
12. Simi Sasagi
13. Junior Paulo

Interchange
14. Chanel Harris-Tavita
15. Benaiah Ioelu
16. Terrell May
17. Josh Papali’i

Reserves
18. Ata Mariota
19. Ativalu Lisati
20. Clayton Faulalo
21. Lyhkan King-Togia

Verdict

Another close contest between these sides is expected in the final, but the Kiwis continue to come out on top in this H2H and they're once again favoured to prevail in the final.

Best Bet1: New Zealand Win H2H $1.68 at Elitebet - 3 Units
Best Bet2: New Zealand 1-12 Margin $3.00 at Playup - 2 Units
Best Bet3: Casey McLean Anytime Tryscorer $1.75 at Ladbrokes Australia - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Casey McLean First Tryscorer $8.00 at betr - 1 Unit
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