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Melbourne Storm vs Newcastle Knights NRL Round 14 Tips - Newcastle cover as away underdog

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Wed 03 Jun 2026 08:16

Jeremy Darke 03 Jun 2026

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Knights have won 4 straight and conceded just 14 points per game recently.
Storm are defensively solid but struggle in attack, with 22 points or less in 7 of 9 matches.
Expert tip: Back Newcastle +4.5 and Under 49.5 points; Marzhew remains a try threat.
Kick off is at 6:00 PM (AEST) on Friday, 5th June at AAMI Park

Melbourne Storm vs Newcastle Knights NRL Round 14 Tips

Melbourne Storm vs Newcastle Knights, Round 14 2026 - Expert Prediction

Newcastle can keep this game much closer than the market expects and the Knights +4.5 points shapes as the best betting angle at AAMI Park on Friday night.

Melbourne Storm vs Newcastle Knights, Round 14 2026 - Expert Prediction
Head to Head
Melbourne Storm Form Analysis
Newcastle Knights Form Analysis
Melbourne Storm vs Newcastle Knights Team List & Team News
Melbourne Storm vs Newcastle Knights NRL 2026 Round 14 FAQ’s

Melbourne comes into the clash off an impressive 18-4 win over the Roosters, but that result was built on defence rather than attacking dominance. The Storm have scored 20 points or less the sixth time in their previous nine matches and relied heavily on a brilliant performance from Sua Fa'alogo, who ran for 278 metres and broke the line three times.

The Knights arrive with plenty of confidence after winning four straight matches. Kalyn Ponga continues to steer the side around the park, while Dylan Lucas has emerged as one of Newcastle's most dangerous edge forwards, scoring five tries in his last four games.

Melbourne's last outing produced just 22 total points and Newcastle has improved significantly defensively during its winning streak, giving up 22 points or less in their last 3 matches.

I'm taking Newcastle +4.5 and Under 49.5 points as the main plays. In the player markets, Greg Marzhew remains one of Newcastle's most reliable finishers and gets another opportunity against a Storm side still dealing with some backline disruption.

The Knights have won 4 matches in a row.
Newcastle have conceded an average of 14 points in their last 3 matches.
Melbourne has scored 22 points or less in 7 of their last 9 matches.
Greg Marzhew has scored 10 tries in his last 4 games.

Head to Head

Melbourne holds a 3-2 advantage across the last five meetings and has won the past two encounters by 18 and eight points respectively.

The Storm were comfortable 32-14 winners when the sides met last season and have traditionally dominated this matchup, winning 32 of 49 meetings overall.

Interestingly, recent meetings have generally been lower-scoring affairs. Four of the last six clashes have produced 48 points or fewer, which aligns with the projected total sitting below the current market.

Melbourne Storm Form Analysis

The Storm have quietly turned their season around after a disastrous seven-game losing streak. Craig Bellamy's side has now won three of its last four matches and remains within striking distance of the top eight despite sitting below its usual standards.

Last week's 18-4 win over the Roosters highlighted Melbourne's defensive improvement. The Storm completed their first 21 sets of the game and restricted one of the league's best attacks to a single try. Sua Fa'alogo was sensational, producing a career-best performance with 278 running metres, three linebreaks and 10 tackle busts.

Harry Grant and Cameron Munster also backed up strongly from Origin duties and were key contributors in the victory.

Newcastle Knights Form Analysis

Newcastle has become one of the hottest teams in the competition, winning four consecutive matches to surge back into finals contention.

The Knights have scored 28, 36, 44 and 42 points during their winning streak and are averaging 32.4 points per game across their last five outings. Dylan Brown has added another dimension to the attack, while Kalyn Ponga continues to be the side's most influential player despite the spotlight following his Origin appearance.

The emergence of Dylan Lucas has been another major positive. The damaging back-rower scored twice against Parramatta and now has five tries in his last four games, giving Newcastle genuine strike power on an edge.

Melbourne Storm vs Newcastle Knights Team List & Team News

Team News and Lists are in our dedicated Round 14 Team List Article.

Melbourne Storm vs Newcastle Knights NRL 2026 Round 14 FAQ’s

How to livestream Melbourne Storm vs Newcastle Knights NRL 2026 Round 14?

You can livestream the Melbourne Storm vs Newcastle Knights NRL 2026 Round 14 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Melbourne Storm vs Newcastle Knights NRL 2026 Round 14?

To buy tickets to the Melbourne Storm vs Newcastle Knights NRL 2026 Round 14 game check the NRL website or the official Melbourne Storm site.

Verdict

Melbourne Storm v Newcastle Knights

Take the Knights to cover as the away underdog in a match that will see less than 49.5 points. Greg Marzhew will continue his run of tries.

Newcastle +4.5

Handicap/Line

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