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Melbourne Storm vs Cronulla Sharks NRL Tips - Storm's dominant AAMI Park form to propel them into GF
The Melbourne Storm are favoured to defeat the Cronulla Sharks in the NRL Preliminary Final at AAMI Park. Despite the Sharks’ impressive run and strong defense, Storm’s big-game experience and star-studded spine make them tough to beat at home. With Hughes and Papenhuyzen returning from injury, and Xavier Coates a major tryscoring threat, experts predict the Storm will cover a -8.5 line and the match will exceed 40.5 points. The Storm’s formidable finals record at home suggests they are set for another Grand Final appearance.
- Melbourne Storm vs Cronulla Sharks expert predictions for Friday's preliminary final game
- Kick off is at 7.50pm AEST at AAMI Park
- Storm come into this clash with intimidating home record - both overall & vs Sharks
- Xavier Coates' aerial threat to resume with Jahrome Hughes back on deck
- Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bets
Melbourne Storm vs Cronulla Sharks NRL Tips
Melbourne Storm vs Cronulla Sharks, NRL Preliminary Final - Expert Prediction
It's been a gallant effort from the Sharks to make the prelims, but the Storm at home will prove too tough as Craig Bellamy's side march into another Grand Final on Friday night at AAMI Park.
- Melbourne Storm vs Cronulla Sharks, NRL Preliminary Final - Expert Prediction
- Melbourne Storm vs Cronulla Sharks Preliminary Final Cheat Sheet
- Head To Head
- Melbourne Storm Form Analysis
- Melbourne Storm Team News
- Melbourne Storm Team List
- Cronulla Sharks Form Analysis
- Cronulla Sharks Team News
- Cronulla Sharks Team List
Honestly, part of me wants to back the Sharks here. Melbourne have been below their best for most of the season and Cronulla have proven they can get into the grind with the Storm throughout recent years, while three top eight scalps on the trot in September has helped shed the flat track bully tag. But the Storm at AAMI Park in a preliminary final? I just can't back against Bellamy in these circumstances.
The Storm have won 45 of their last 54 games at AAMI Park. Three of the last four defeats at the venue were by two points and the other was that late-season defeat to the Roosters, where they weren't really going all out. Melbourne on the road remains the ultimate test in the NRL and it only gets more challenging with a Grand Final on the line. I just can't see the Sharkies having the necessary firepower to get the job done.
I'm expecting the Storm's game-breakers to prove the difference. Ryan Papenhuyzen and Jahrome Hughes return to the side from injury, joining Harry Grant and Cameron Munster in arguably the competition's most fearsome spine. Elisea Katoa has transformed into the one of the NRL's supreme second-rowers and he's proving unstoppable on the edges. Xavier Coates' aerial threat out wide is unmatched. Cronulla's team of zero Origin players have performed admirably, but when push comes to shove in a game of this magnitude, they could be out of their depth.
Take the Storm to cover a -8.5 line in a game that produces Over 40.5 total points. Coates will be a menace in the air, with Hughes to land some pinpoint bombs right on the tryline.
- Storm have lost just nine games at AAMI Park since 2021
- Storm have won seven of their last eight home games vs Sharks
- All seven of those wins have covered a -8.5 line (in fact, all seven have been by a 13+ margin)
- Four of the six finals games this season have seen Over 40.5 points
- Storm have seen Over 40.5 points in their last three games
- Four of the last five meetings have produced Over 40.5 points
- Xavier Coates has scored 41 tries in 38 games at AAMI Park
- Xavier Coates has scored nine tries in his last eight games & scored a hat-trick vs Sharks in R11
Melbourne Storm vs Cronulla Sharks Preliminary Final Cheat Sheet
Storm vs Sharks Prelim Final Cheat Sheet
Head To Head
The Sharks are one of the few teams to have enjoyed success against the Storm in recent times, winning three of the last six meetings - including a 31-26 triumph in Round 11 earlier this season. However, they repeatedly come undone against the Storm at AAMI Park, losing seven of the last eight meetings, with Melbourne prevailing 30-6 in Round 17.
This will be a rematch of the 2016 NRL Grand Final, which the Sharks won 14-12 after a barnstorming try to Andrew Fifita with 10 minutes remaining.
Melbourne Storm Form Analysis
Even though I'm tipping the Storm here, I think they've been far from convincing this season and they've certainly landed on the favourable side of the finals draw.
No matter which way you spin it, facing an out-of-form Bulldogs side and the Sharks to make a Grand Final is a wonderful slice of good fortune. At this stage, I'd be backing the winner of Penrith vs Brisbane to lift the premiership.
But, the Storm can never be ruled out with Bellamy calling the shots and the star-studded spine all back on deck.
Hughes simply cannot be 100 per cent after dislocating his shoulder and breaking his arm during the back-end of the regular season, but his sheer presence, control and kicking game will help Melbourne in similar fashion to what Cooper Cronk did playing with busted shoulder for the Roosters in the 2018 GF.
Melbourne lost their final two games of the regular season, but they were secure in second spot. They did what they needed to do against the Bulldogs in the qualifying final, coming away 26-18 winners, but the Storm needed a Will Warbrick intercept with three minutes remaining to ice the game.
Melbourne Storm Team News
Obviously the big news is Jahrome Hughes and Ryan Papenhuyzen coming back into the side after missing the qualifying final against Canterbury. Shawn Blore also returns from a fractured larynx.
That means Jonah Pezet, Grant Anderson and Joe Chan are the players to make way, with Nick Meaney shifting to the centres and Ativalu Lisati starting in the second row.
Melbourne Storm Team List
1. Ryan Papenhuyzen
2. William Warbrick
3. Jack Howarth
4. Nick Meaney
5. Xavier Coates
6. Cameron Munster
7. Jahrome Hughes
8. Stefano Utoikamanu
9. Harry Grant
10. Josh King
11. Ativalu Lisati
12. Eliesa Katoa
13. Trent Loiero
Interchange
14. Tyran Wishart
15. Shawn Blore
16. Tui Kamikamica
17. Alec MacDonald
Reserves
18. Bronson Garlick
19. Grant Anderson
20. Joe Chan
21. Jonah Pezet
22. Sualauvi Faalogo
Cronulla Sharks Form Analysis
Credit to the Sharks, they've made the most of a weak draw towards the end of the regular season before stepping up in the finals to outmuscle the Roosters and Raiders to make an unlikely preliminary final.
Winning breeds confidence and the Sharks certainly have their chests puffed out, coming into this clash having won nine of their last 10 games. Cronulla's defence has been rock solid, conceding two tries or less in their last three victories over the Bulldogs, Roosters and Raiders.
Canberra were there for the taking last week after their heartbreaking extra-time defeat to the Broncos in Week 1 of the finals and the Sharks completely suffocated them, slowly and methodically grinding them into submission before completing a comfortable 32-10 triumph.
Cronulla's second-row pairing of Teig Wilton and Billy Burns are supremely underrated, while Addin Fonua-Blake remains one of the form props in the NRL, averaging 161 metres per game this season.
Nicho Hynes has stepped it up to produce some of his best footy in the postseason, supported by Brayden Trindall, who is helping take the pressure off his high-profile No. 7. Ronaldo Mulitalo is backing up his smack talk by scoring eight tries in his last five games.
Cronulla Sharks Team News
Poor Tom Hazelton can't catch a break and will miss the prelim due to concussion, with Oregon Kaufusi coming onto the bench in the only change from the side that crushed Canberra last week.
Cronulla Sharks Team List
1. William Kennedy
2. Sione Katoa
3. Jesse Ramien
4. KL Iro
5. Ronaldo Mulitalo
6. Braydon Trindall
7. Nicho Hynes
8. Addin Fonua-Blake
9. Blayke Brailey
10. Toby Rudolf
11. Billy Burns
12. Teig Wilton
13. Jesse Colquhoun
Interchange
14. Briton Nikora
15. Siosifa Talakai
16. Oregon Kaufusi
17. Braden Hamlin-Uele
Reserves
18. Daniel Atkinson
19. Mawene Hiroti
20. Jayden Berrell
21. Tuku Hau Tapuha
22. Hohepa Puru
Verdict
The Storm's stars will lift for the prelims and lead their team to victory over the Sharks, covering a -8.5 line in a game that totals Over 40.5 points.
Xavier Coates should get back to tryscoring ways on the wing after scoring a hat-trick against Cronulla earlier this season.
Storm -8.5
Line
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