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F1 Italian Grand Prix 2026 Tips & Predictions – Norris to Win at Monza

jeremy-darke
Jeremy Darke
Editor
Last updated: Mon 31 Aug 2026 08:19

The 2026 Italian Grand Prix is shaping up for excitement as Lando Norris is the standout pick to win both qualifying and the race at Monza. Norris is on a winning streak, coming off strong performances in Hungary and Zandvoort, and McLaren's upgraded package looks well-matched for Monza. Kimi Antonelli's planned engine penalty means he will start lower down the grid, giving Norris a key advantage. While Ferrari's home support and Max Verstappen's resurgence are factors, Norris is favored to sweep the weekend.

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Jeremy Darke 31 Aug 2026
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  • Lando Norris predicted for both pole and race win at Monza.
  • Kimi Antonelli faces a grid penalty, boosting McLaren's chances.
  • Ferrari and Verstappen expected to challenge, but Norris is the favorite.
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Lando Norris Monza
Italian GP Predictions 2026. (Photo by Rudy Carezzevoli/Getty Images)

F1 Italian Grand Prix 2026 Tips & Predictions


Lando Norris is tipped to complete a hat-trick of victories at Monza, with a planned engine penalty for championship leader Kimi Antonelli opening the door for McLaren at the Italian Grand Prix.

Formula 1 heads from Zandvoort to the fastest circuit of the season for the 2026 Italian Grand Prix, and what initially looked like another Mercedes-versus-McLaren battle has been turned on its head before the cars even hit the track.

Antonelli will take new power-unit components at Monza and therefore faces a grid penalty at his home Grand Prix. Mercedes has deliberately chosen the Temple of Speed to absorb the penalty, believing its long straights and overtaking opportunities give Antonelli a better chance of recovering than at upcoming circuits.

That makes Norris the standout pick. The reigning World Champion arrives after consecutive victories in Hungary and the Netherlands, McLaren continues to improve and its Mercedes power should be extremely well suited to Monza.

Ferrari will have enormous support from the Tifosi and could bring further power-unit and low-drag developments, while Max Verstappen should also be much more competitive than he was at Zandvoort.

But with Antonelli starting from down the order, Norris is the prediction for both pole position and victory at Monza.

Formula 1 Italian Grand Prix Qualifying Tips


Lando Norris remains the pick to set the fastest qualifying time at Monza.

Norris has looked increasingly comfortable with McLaren's upgraded package and backed up his Hungary victory by beating Antonelli on track at Zandvoort. McLaren is also expected to have an extremely efficient package for Monza, where reducing drag while maintaining stability under braking is crucial.

Antonelli could still be one of the fastest drivers on Saturday despite his penalty, but his eventual starting position means the focus shifts towards who can capitalise at the front.

Norris is driving with enormous confidence and has the machinery to make it count.

Pole Position Prediction: Lando Norris

Formula 1 Italian Grand Prix Race Tips


Lando Norris is the new pick to win the Italian Grand Prix after Kimi Antonelli's planned engine penalty changed the picture at the front.

Antonelli would have been a major threat at a circuit that should suit Mercedes, but starting further down the grid leaves him needing a recovery drive rather than fighting Norris from the opening laps.

Norris arrives after consecutive victories in Hungary and Zandvoort and McLaren should again be strong at Monza. Max Verstappen is tipped to bounce back into the podium positions, while George Russell should benefit from Antonelli's penalty to lead Mercedes' challenge at the front.

Race Winner Prediction: Lando Norris

Verdict

Lando Norris for Pole and the Win
Best Bet1: Lando Norris Fastest Qualifier $3.25 at dabble - 1 Unit
Best Bet2: Lando Norris Race Winner $2.50 at dabble - 1 Unit
Lando Norris
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