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Brisbane Broncos vs Penrith Panthers 2025 NRL Finals Tips - Panthers into their sixth straight Granny
The 2025 NRL Preliminary Final features the Penrith Panthers against the Brisbane Broncos—a replay of the 2023 Grand Final. Penrith, unbeaten against Brisbane at Suncorp since 2019, enter with an unchanged lineup. The Broncos, despite their recent attacking brilliance, are unsettled by key injuries and suspensions. Prediction: Panthers are favored to cover the -2.5 line, with under 48.5 points expected. Paul Alamoti is tipped to score a try. The Panthers' consistency and defensive prowess give them the edge in a likely low-scoring contest.
- Brisbane Broncos vs Penrith Panthers expert predictions for Sunday’s 2025 Finals NRL game
- Kick off is at 4:05 PM (AEST) at Suncorp Stadium
- Panthers are unbeaten vs Broncos at Suncorp since 2019 (6 straight).
- Penrith favoured to cover -2.5 line; game total expected under 48.5 points.
Brisbane Broncos vs Penrith Panthers 2025 NRL Finals Tips
Brisbane Broncos vs Penrith Panthers, Preliminary Finals 2025 - Expert Prediction
Sunday will see a replay of the 2023 Grand Final and unfortunately for Broncos fans it will be a similar result that will see their Finals run cut short at the Prelim.
- Brisbane Broncos vs Penrith Panthers, Preliminary Finals 2025 - Expert Prediction
- Head to Head
- Brisbane Broncos Form Analysis
- Brisbane Broncos Team News
- Brisbane Broncos Team List
- Penrith Panthers Form Analysis
- Penrith Panthers Team News
- Penrith Panthers Team List
- Brisbane Broncos vs Penrith Panthers NRL 2025 Finals 2025 FAQ’s
Broncos vs Panthers NRL Finals Cheat Sheet
The quick storyline here is an unchanged Penrith side will face Brisbane without stand-in skipper Pat Carrigan and Billy Walters, while they see the return of their captain Adam Reynolds, along with Ezra mam and Xavier Willison. Although a lot of class returns, it unsettles the lineup that has been electric over the last 5 weeks.
This directly has me leaning towards the Panthers, if I wasn’t there already. Reece Walsh had found his place in the centre of the Broncos attack and is now likely to be dictated by Reynolds more than he has been over the last month.
The game total has been set at 48.5 and diving back into the history of these two teams they have only gone over this mark twice since 2019 and have not combined for more than 40 points in their last 7 games at Suncorp.
I expect Penrith to dictate the play of this game and shut down the attack of Brisbane that will likely have a few misfires early with some of their combinations getting used to each other again.
I will once again be riding the hat trick hero Paul Alamoti as the anytime try scorer after a formidable performance against the Bulldogs.
- Penrith have not lost to Brisbane at Suncorp since Round 22, 2019 (6-0).
- The last 7 games between Brisbane and Penrith have had a game total of 40 points or less.
- 4 of the last 5 Penrith Finals matches have gone to the under on the game total.
- Paul Alamoti has 6 tries in his last 4 Finals games for Penrith.
Head to Head
Penrith have won the last 5 against Brisbane and 9 of the last 10 contests between the two. They played once this season with the Panthers running away 32-8 victors at Suncorp Stadium.
The Panthers have won their last 6 games against the Broncos at Suncorp Stadium.
8 of the last 11 games have gone under the game total between Brisbane and Penrith.
Brisbane Broncos Form Analysis
The Broncos escaped death twice in their Week 1 Finals match against Canberra, also surviving a double sin bin in the second half to beat the Minor Premiers 29-28 in Golden Point after scoring 3 tries in the final 14 minutes of the game to send it to extra time.
It was another stunning performance by Reece Walsh who scored a try, set up two and also had a linebreak and two linebreak assists in the match. Billy Walters was also instrumental in the win with 2 try assists, 2 linebreak assists and a linebreak before leaving the field with a season ending ACL injury.
Brisbane’s attack has been electric, with Walsh in the centre of it all as the Broncos have averaged 36.2 points per game in their last 5 matches. Their concerns are more in defence where they have allowed their opponents to score 28 points or more in 3 of their last 5, needing their flashy attack to bail them out.
Brisbane Broncos Team News
Ezra Mam, Adam Reynolds and Xavier Willison all return for the big Prelim in Brisbane on Sunday.
Their inclusions forced a major reshuffle, along with the injury to Billy Walters who suffered an ACL injury against the Raiders. Ben Hunt will partner Reynolds in the halves with Mam becoming the utility from the bench with Willison joining him on the pine.
The Broncos lose Patrick Carrigan due to suspension with Tyson Smoothy starting at lock and Kobe Hetherington coming off the bench.
Brisbane Broncos Team List
1. Reece Walsh
2. Josiah Karapani
3. Kotoni Staggs
4. Gehamat Shibasaki
5. Deine Mariner
6. Ben Hunt
7. Adam Reynolds
8. Corey Jensen
9. Cory Paix
10. Payne Haas
11. Brendan Piakura
12. Jordan Riki
13. Tyson Smoothy
Interchange
14. Ezra Mam
15. Kobe Hetherington
16. Xavier Willison
17. Ben Talty
Reserves
18. Jesse Arthars
19. Jack Gosiewski
20. Selwyn Cobbo
21. Jaiyden Hunt
22. Jock Madden
Penrith Panthers Form Analysis
Well it is once again starting to smell like another Premiership for the Penrith Panthers. A huge first half from the 4-time Premiers had them go into the sheds 36-8 against Canterbury with the match already put to bed.
It was another Finals masterclass from Nathan Cleary and his men who had 61% of the possession and a whopping 75% of the territory in the first half resulting from 6 linebreaks and over 400 more run metres than the Dogs, who missed 44 tackles before the break. The end result flattered the Bulldogs with a 46-26 win for Penrith who took their foot off the gas.
Penrith have now put in two very different performances in the first two weeks of the finals. Controlling a low-scoring contest with New Zealand and striking late, then a week later coming out of the blocks guns blazing and building a hefty, early lead.
Penrith Panthers Team News
Despite some injury concerns to Casey McLean and Liam Martin, the Panthers are unchanged from the side that crushed the Bulldogs last week.
Penrith Panthers Team List
1. Dylan Edwards
2. Paul Alamoti
3. Izack Tago
4. Casey McLean
5. Brian To'o
6. Blaize Talagi
7. Nathan Cleary
8. Moses Leota
9. Mitch Kenny
10. Lindsay Smith
11. Scott Sorensen
12. Liam Martin
13. Isaah Yeo
Interchange
14. Brad Schneider
15. Liam Henry
16. Isaiah Papali'i
17. Luke Garner
Reserves
18. Daine Laurie
19. Matthew Eisenhuth
20. Thomas Jenkins
21. Mavrik Geyer
22. Luke Sommerton
Brisbane Broncos vs Penrith Panthers NRL 2025 Finals 2025 FAQ’s
How to watch Brisbane Broncos vs Penrith Panthers NRL Finals 2025?
You can watch the Brisbane Broncos vs Penrith Panthers NRL Finals 2025 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.
How to buy tickets to Brisbane Broncos vs Penrith Panthers NRL Finals 2025?
To buy tickets to the Brisbane Broncos vs Penrith Panthers NRL Finals 2025 game check the NRL website or the official Brisbane Broncos site.
Verdict
Paul Alamoti will score a try as Penrith cover the 2.5 points as the favourite in a game that will see less than 48.5 points scored.
Penrith Panthers -2.5
Handicap/Line
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Under 48.5
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Paul Alamoti
Anytime Tryscorer
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Paul Alamoti
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